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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1287

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 14, 2025 19:59:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 141959
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141959=20
    OKZ000-142200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1287
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0259 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of western/southwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141959Z - 142200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest some potential for storm
    development in western/southwestern Oklahoma. While initiation is
    still not certain, all severe hazards would be possible. Trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...With the stronger convection moving out of eastern
    Oklahoma into western Arkansas, the outflow across central Oklahoma
    has only been weakly reinforced through the afternoon. Notable
    airmass recovery has occurred along the southwestern/western flank
    of this outflow. Over the past hour or so, cumulus have continued to
    deepen in parts of southwest and western Oklahoma. Given weak
    forcing aloft, it is not clear parcels will be able to remain in the
    zone of ascent long enough to reach their LFC. However, if
    initiation occurs, the environment would support severe storms.

    Mid-level winds are enhanced on the southwestern flank of an MCV
    near the KS/OK border, promoting around 30 kts of effective shear.
    Storms would likely be supercellular. Large hail (potentially to
    around 2 inches) and severe winds would be possible. Significant
    hail would likely be isolated given fairly weak upper-level winds.
    Given the backed southeasterly surface winds and favorable storm
    mode, a tornado would also be possible. Forecast soundings and the
    KTLX VAD suggest sufficient low-level SRH.

    Given the uncertainties in this scenario, a watch is not currently
    expected in the short term. However, one would be possible should
    confidence in initiation increase.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-8AjiVqoFpEMIxobZgWVBwmsLls63J1JXSuIUlZ9Av8kucMCGXS7OXZd3-o5Y3iySCTGkHjtQ= 1zMvznLaKb3WZtgl3Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34209789 34359854 34769926 35409956 35959953 35989948
    36089926 35449851 34759780 34469764 34209789=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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