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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1284

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 14, 2025 16:17:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 141616
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141616=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-141815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1284
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1116 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

    Areas affected...East-central Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141616Z - 141815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible with a cluster of
    storms moving towards east-central/southeast Oklahoma. Convective
    trends in storm organization will need to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...As the low-level jet has diminished in intensity this
    morning, convection in northeast Oklahoma has had outflow outpace
    the stronger updrafts. While the 12Z observed sounding from Little
    Rock showed poor lapse rates aloft, modifying the sounding with
    current surface observation suggests around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.
    Recently, storms have developed near the intersection of two outflow
    boundaries south-southwest of Tulsa. Given the improvement in
    low-level lapse rates into the afternoon downstream of this
    activity, There is some potential for continued intensification.
    Overall, tropospheric flow is rather weak. Organization of activity
    will be largely dependent on cold pool dynamics as well as storms
    not being undercut by outflow to the northeast. Damaging wind gusts
    are possible at least on an isolated basis. The need for a watch is
    uncertain. Observational/convective trends will need to be monitored
    over the next few hours.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4hrzt7dYqAZoiDExYy0XyeAc28FHo6YuTtyXN_jrI_PKtbihcjt-eID6UtAqekYwy2wmCXCd0= LiIWFqPvFxld08qgn0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36199393 35819313 35349283 34839320 34409410 34369485
    34599587 35259694 36089613 36289474 36199393=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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