AWUS01 KWNH 052132
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Southwest KS...OK/TX Panahandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052130Z - 060330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be organizing and
expanding in coverage over the next several hours, with eventual
MCS development likely over the southern High Plains. Isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as the storms
grow upscale and produce heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E IR/WV suite shows the
shearing out of mid-level shortwave energy across the central and
southern High Plains in general, and this energy coupled with
localized orographics and proximity of a front should favor the
expansion of convection over the next several hours. Already the
most recent visible satellite and radar imagery shows
thunderstorms initiating over to the east of the Front Range and
also farther off to the southeast over southeast CO and far
southwest KS where there is an area of low pressure helping to
drive stronger low-level moisture convergence.

A nose of MLCAPE values reaching 1500 to 2500 J/kg is seen in the
latest RAP analysis along with effective bulk shear values of 30
to 50 kts. With additional boundary layer destabilization expected
in the near-term over southeast CO adjacent areas of southwest KS
and the OK/TX Panhandles, a general increase in the coverage of
convection should tend to occur from northwest to southeast as
convection near and over the terrain advances downstream into the
strongly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

Eventually by later this evening there should be an environment
conducive for merging convective clusters which will include a
combination of multi-cell and supercell thunderstorms, and this
will likely promote a stronger MCS evolution that will impact
areas of especially southwest KS. A strengthening nocturnal
southerly low-level jet over the aforementioned the front by later
this evening will be a key contributor to the eventual MCS
evolution via certainly strong warm air advection and moisture
transport.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with the
stronger storms, and with cell-merger activity likely, some spotty
2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals are expected over the next few hours.
However, by later this evening, the latest hires model guidance
led by the 18Z HREF and 12Z REFS supports areas of southwest KS
seeing heavier totals of 3 to 5 inches given the level of MCS
organization that is expected.

Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible
regionally as the convection continues to initiate, organize and
expand in coverage heading into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7GyJorGDAXsLro2QlqzyDpLlnFkaoqrlNJ8GO2YK5gABx-8csbLZXpbijfepe253NHNk= YRjCcP-XmUSnU-mxMoJC48g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40330409 40270300 39860230 38920094 38089869=20
36759876 36140040 36230243 36990391 38380521=20
39870512=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052326
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-060400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0373
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southern NV...Northwest AZ...Southern
UT...Extreme Eastern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052325Z - 060400Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to
persist over the next few hours across portions of southern NV,
extreme eastern CA, northwest AZ and southern UT. Additional
isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible going into the
evening hours as a result.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-W visible satellite imagery
shows multiple convectively reinforced outflow boundaries
impacting the Southwest from ongoing small-scale clusters of
convection. One axis of well-defined CU/TCU and embedded CBs
exists across southern UT and into southern NV, with another one
farther south over northwest AZ near the Mogollon Rim and over to
the CA/NV border.

In between these two outflow boundaries which are both generally
settling slowly southward, there continues to be the pooling of
instability with as much as 1000 to 1500+ J/kg of SBCAPE. In fact,
the latest 3-hourly SBCAPE differentials has been showing
localized increases (400+ J/kg) in instability over northwest AZ.
Recent IR satellite imagery has been showing some additional
cooling of the convective cloud tops over southern NV in
particular, and the latest RAP analysis has also been indicating
some modest effective bulk shear parameters showing up as an
elongated mid-level shortwave trough/shear axis approaches the
region from the northwest.

The combination of lingering diurnally enhanced instability along
with cooling cloud top trends and the aforementioned mid-level
trough approaching the region suggests that the ongoing convection
should tend to persist for at least a few more hours. A
combination of orographic ascent and some potential for these
outflow boundaries to interact with one another may also support
potential for renewed convective development in the near-term.

Some additional 1 to 2+ inch rainfall amounts will be possible
with the stronger storms, and given the sensitivities on the
ground around some of the local slot canyon areas (especially
southern UT) along with any burn scars and the normally dry
washes, there may be some additional isolated areas of flash
flooding this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4EACyrEbdoZbe-Xky5uQLRI3Jh6lEAFYCcdlcZh1nNPFWpa9VeLqOIz1hLqet5IFYeri= l4TghF_hU00nM8zvC0kiztg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38551154 38461017 37761018 37011142 36341169=20
35631153 34821169 34591240 34781365 34851463=20
34991553 35521592 36281597 37051578 37671515=20
38061409 38361289=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060048
FFGMPD
WVZ000-060330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0374
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...much of WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060045Z - 060330Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...A cluster of thunderstorms have been persistent
across portions of southern WV over the past 2-3 hours, forming on
the higher elevations of the central Appalachians and propagating
upwind (against weak 700 mb flow from the west) into the New River
Gorge region. While radar data is limited (KRLX down for radome
replacement), GOES-East is indicating impressive cooling cloud
tops along the western flank of the cluster, suggesting slow
moving convection could continue for at least a couple more hours.
Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to continued or
additional isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding (given 1-hr and 3-hr FFGs generally ranging from 1.5-2.0"
and 2.0-2.5", repspectively).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GC8COBtwmE5uj1AbuaKYsrfzycwrlOisrtxlpr-IGIoYRyEf0_EqbDpJxe7PqNS0F8T= SRcDwfyMTCf8X--9MThGVw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38468087 38388044 38088051 37738098 37618184=20
37778223 37988212 38218179 38418130=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060153
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0375
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Rolling Plains into TX Big Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060152Z - 060600Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An intense, long-lived supercell is maintaining very
impressive structure following significant impacts to the Lubbock
and surroundings (including tornadoes, extreme straight line
winds, giant hail, and flash flooding). The large cell is tracking
ESE at 10-15 kts (following the expected bunkers right-mover
vector), and the environment downstream is characterized by MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th
percentile, using AMA, MAF, and FWD as proxy sounding
climatology), and 40-60 kts of deep layer (0-6 km) shear. The
low-level jet is already providing moderate moisture transport and
warm air advection (20-30 kts at 850 mb), and will only strengthen significantly (to 30-40 kts) over the next 2-3 hours.

Going forward with a deep layer mean wind of 25-30 kts (towards
ENE) near and downstream of the intense convection (and more than
sufficient instability and shear), organization into a larger MCS
is possible (and should easily be maintained per MCS maintenance
probabilities of 80-90%). Very intense rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr (and 1" in as little as 15-min, per MRMS) may result in
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Short
term localized totals should be limited to 2-4", given Corfidi
vectors imply 30-35 kt forward speed. Should upscale growth into
an MCS not occur, then localized totals up to 5" may be possible
with a slower moving supercell.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8xYZwLgSrniEeAG8yTAPC9K-6DYZMtUwS7Ax4MNLef22hIh_TsnfJnLBX6RKETMYuNrs= 6JKUUPs_fsxP1GPl5rmDOhE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34400118 34350016 34139863 33549841 33069869=20
32960025 33120157 33460207 33910218 34280180=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060349
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-061000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0376
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...southern KS, northern OK, far north TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060400Z - 061000Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An intense, long-lived supercell is maintaining very
impressive structure following significant impacts to the Lubbock
and surroundings (including tornadoes, extreme straight line
winds, giant hail, and flash flooding). The large cell is tracking
ESE at 10-15 kts (following the expected bunkers right-mover
vector), and the environment downstream is characterized by MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th
percentile, using AMA, MAF, and FWD as proxy sounding
climatology), and 40-60 kts of deep layer (0-6 km) shear. The
low-level jet is already providing moderate moisture transport and
warm air advection (20-30 kts at 850 mb), and will only strengthen significantly (to 30-40 kts) over the next 2-3 hours.

Going forward with a deep layer mean wind of 25-30 kts (towards
ENE) near and downstream of the intense convection (and more than
sufficient instability and shear), organization into a larger MCS
is possible (and should easily be maintained per MCS maintenance
probabilities of 80-90%). Very intense rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr (and 1" in as little as 15-min, per MRMS) may result in
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Short
term localized totals should be limited to 2-4", given Corfidi
vectors imply 30-35 kt forward speed. Should upscale growth into
an MCS not occur, then localized totals up to 5" may be possible
with a slower moving supercell.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GNsShYOcy1o0aN_bgDBMW5QiWfLgxD_VK2h4RiBkz2aACOyMAUNtIiVqSmJ-2cyF2IW= 6vLq3REsFw1Xml1Jl0oCt38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37969709 37729516 36079494 35889720 35939925=20
36100057 36190191 36360312 37140265 37430215=20
37600157 37710067 37819968 37899853=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0377
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...central and northeast OK into far southeast KS,
southwest MO, and northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061000Z - 061400Z

Summary...A mature mesoscale convective system (MCS) and an
associated mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is producing
1.0-2.5"/hr rainfall and may result in additional 3-5" through 9AM
CDT. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...An MCS has matured overnight and is progressing
through northern and eastern portions of OK at this hour. Very
heavy rainfall accompanies this MCS (1-2" hourly totals), and
particularly so ahead and downstream of a distinct MCV over far
northeast OK (up to 2.5" hourly totals and 15-min totals up to
1.5", per MRMS estimates). While the 30-40 kt low-level jet that
is driving moisture transport and lift is expected to rapidly
weaken (to 25 kts or less) over the next several hours, these
rainfall rates will likely result in continued/additional isolated
to scattered instances of flash flooding (given 1-hr/3-hr FFGs as
low as 1.0-1.5" and 2.0-2.5", respectively). SBCAPE of 500-2500
J/kg, PWs of 1.5-2.0" (between 90th percentile to near record
values, per OUN and SGF sounding climatology), and effective bulk
shear of 35-55 kts will sustain the heavy rainfall in the short
term. 06z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities indicate 40-50%
chances for 2"/1-hr exceedance, and 30-60% odds for 3"/3-hr
exceedance (maximized over far northeast OK into adjacent portions
of AR/MO).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Q_1Afec7JjLm1l2-99c6epwv_EwRFvqAuTkkSCqyBK47VNLTtQVgwmAmrjXgaBP1k1A= fu5dsJ0zAZHF7x8rh1r0uGM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37749333 37409254 35909386 34559644 35189815=20
35579807 36039772 36459722 36639679 37049616=20
37249522 37339450 37419418=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061152
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-061750-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0378
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians...Northern
Mid-Atlantic...Southern NY State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061150Z - 061750Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally tend
to expand in coverage by midday across the central Appalachians,
the northern Mid-Atlantic, and southern NY state. At least
isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible given heavy
rainfall rates and locally wet antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E WV suite shows a fairly
well-defined shortwave impulse advancing east through the upper OH
Valley which will be crossing gradually into the central
Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic by midday. This energy
coupled with a quasi-stationary front and multiple waves of low
pressure riding northeast along it is already producing some
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms across far eastern OH, the
northern WV Panhandle and far western PA.

While instability is quite modest with only about 500 to 750 J/kg
of MUCAPE in place where the axis of convection is occurring, the
diurnal heating cycle by later this morning through midday will
facilitate stronger boundary layer instability. This coupled with
local orographics and differential heating boundaries, along with
a weak upper-level jet streak (associated with the aforementioned
shortwave trough) should support a gradual expansion of convective
activity that will encompass the central Appalachians and stretch
northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern NY
state.

The PW anomalies early this morning are running about 1.5 standard
deviations above normal with CIRA-ALPW data showing rather strong concentrations of moisture in the 850/500 mb layer ahead of the
shortwave impulse. This coupled with the increasing instability
over the next several hours should favor increasingly efficient
rainfall rates that by later this morning may reach 1.5+
inches/hour.

Cell-motions are forecast to be relatively slow, and with some of
the activity capable of briefly training over the same area, some
3-hourly rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 3 inches will be
possible. Given the locally wet antecedent conditions that are in
place, these heavier rainfall rates/totals may cause at least some
isolated ares of flash flooding and this will include some urban
flooding impacts as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!798xh1S2gP6gCHqZ3AkX_KyB5LRMvFDM0VMTe9p5-yhhxBmmuicIRxmYyDnzfCPSpHlU= ixYigMV85kKOKE0Vb0KtBOw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ... PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43127592 42817468 42037441 41467499 40477713=20
39197893 37678073 37748220 38738324 39908286=20
40858186 41888015 42747773=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061406
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-061800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0379
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Western and Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061405Z - 061800Z

SUMMARY...A strong and well-organized MCS will continue to
southeast through areas of southeast OK and into western and
central AR. Additional areas of flash flooding in association with
this will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived, but still potent MCS continues to
advance across portions of the southern Plains and into adjacent
areas of the lower and middle MS Valley. Cold convective tops
continue across especially southeast OK and the airmass out ahead
of the MCS cold pool/outflow boundary remains moderately unstable
in an elevated fashion with MUCAPE values of a much as 1000 to
2000+ J/kg. A southwesterly low-level jet on the order of 30 to 35
kts continues to help favor a moderately strong axis of moisture
transport up across the region as well extending from the Red
River Valley up through portions of central and northern AR.

The early morning hires guidance led especially by the HRRR seems
to be weakening the overall organization of the MCS a bit too fast
given the current character of the convective cloud top canopy,
with the RRFS guidance a bit more persistence.

Some gradual weakening as a whole is expected to the MCS by later
this morning as the leading edge of the convection advances
farther downstream. However, the southwest flank of the MCS over
southeast OK and potentially into western AR is exhibiting
increasing signs for cell-training in the short-term (next 2 to 3
hours) which will allow for heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour to potentially result in some 3-hour totals of 2 to 4+
inches through midday before eventually weakening.

Additional areas of isolated to scattered flash flooding will
continue to be possible at least through midday with the southwest
flanking line of the MCS activity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4cR7XrRLixdOE8bwdaWEDfi28Tfjs5GiCuLCgQ5mHwawRSNwrZfAgaV4ON2Xs0ZUlYP5= XyI_fnLbkvgmmWv--h8HxeM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35449329 35239193 34229199 33779312 33669544=20
33989684 34639653 34929571 35099448=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061522
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0380
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Middle MS and Lower OH Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061520Z - 062120Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to
generally persist and expand in coverage going through the
mid-afternoon hours from south-central to southeast MO into
southern IL, along with adjacent areas of far southern IN, much of
KY, and far northern TN. Heavy rainfall rates of up to 2
inches/hour and concerns for cell-training will likely result in
at least scattered areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-morning GOES-E Airmass RGB satellite imagery
in conjunction with radar shows a strong MCV advancing through
southwest MO in association with a long-lived MCS that is
advancing well off to the east across areas of the southern Plains
and lower to mid-MS Valley region. This MCV though is also
associated with an area of surface low pressure along a
quasi-stationary frontal zone draped west to east across southern
MO and into adjacent downstream areas of the OH Valley. A separate
wave of low pressure is also noted over southeast MO.

The airmass pooling along this front over the lower OH Valley
ahead of these waves of low pressure and the mid-level energy
aloft is rapidly destabilizing with strong solar insolation and
surface heating. Already there are MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+
J/kg pooled across much of the Mid-South with a nose of this
advancing up into western and central KY.

Over the next several hours, some increase in a southwest
low-level jet (reaching 30+ kts) is expected across southeast MO
through at least far southern IL and into western KY as the
upstream MCV and related wave activity arrives. This will set the
stage for stronger low-level moisture convergence and forcing
along the front for a more organized and concentrated threat of
heavy rainfall. However, downstream areas of far southern IN, much
of KY, and far northern TN will also have a likelihood for
scattered clusters of convection as favorable upper-level jet
support near the front along with the boundary layer
destabilization works to promote convective development.

The airmass is quite moist with PWs running around 1.5 standard
deviations above normal, and the increase in instability with some
moderately strong effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts
should favor enhanced rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour. The
latest 12Z HREF guidance and recent RRFS solutions show rather
strong support for 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals with locally higher
amounts possible where areas of cell-training take place.

Expect a likelihood for scattered areas of flash flooding to occur
going through the mid-afternoon hours, and this will be aided by
locally moist antecedent conditions.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j-4NfWH1TEZK8GT-5S97TyhZIvz-fPospdI50ntTdDNXoeQ2dzGWu2zAd-IRbIo0dnx= LLlhbM2pc-6l_YiNRJIMAy0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38938567 38738312 37508282 36568430 36168812=20
36229032 36499232 37009369 37649390 38049320=20
38399116 38678906=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061722
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-062320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0381
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Much of Central and Eastern NY...Central and
Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061720Z - 062320Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will
expand in coverage this afternoon across especially central and
eastern NY through much of central and southern New England.
Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, some of which may be
locally significant.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
cloud cover and showers advancing across areas of central NY in
association with a shortwave impulse. This energy coupled with
proximity of quasi-stationary front and a destabilizing boundary
layer along it will promote developing and expanding coverage of
heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of
eastern New York through central and southern New England.

MLCAPE values have risen to as much as 1000 to 2000+ J/kg across
southeast NY through central and western CT, and also up across
central and western MA. A nose of lesser instability is focused
north of here up across southern VT/NH as well. Additional
destabilization is expected over the next couple of hours as
strong diurnal heating continues ahead of the approaching upstream
energy. This warm sector airmass is also quite moist with PWs of
1.5 to 1.6+ inches in place, and this pooling of moisture will be
supported through the afternoon by a gradual increase in southwest
low-level flow ahead of the shortwave impulse and as a wave of low
pressure develops and transits the front across the interior of
the Northeast.

The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance supports locally very heavy
rainfall rates reaching upwards of 2 inches/hour, and with
convection also become locally concentrated/focused near some of
the higher terrain of central and southern New England and
especially southern VT, southern NH, and western and central MA.
Some portions of southwest ME also based on recent HRRR guidance
gets into some locally stronger concentrations of convection by
early this evening as well.

Given the approaching upstream wave and level moisture and
instability that is in place, broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely with high rainfall rates that will be
capable of some cell-training. As much as 3 to 5+ inches will be
possible near some of the orographically favored terrain including
the southern portions of the Green and White Mountains on down
into the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. Elsewhere, areas away
from the terrain and back into areas of eastern NY including the
Hudson Valley and adjacent Catskills may see as much as 2 to 4
inches of rain where storms become locally focused.

Given the overall setup, and the relatively moist antecedent
conditions, these rains are likely to cause flash flooding by
later this afternoon which will likely continue into a part of the
early evening time frame. Some locally significant flash flooding
will be possible where the heaviest totals focus near areas of
higher terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5ccycjOXBLhqTswYilucbubqSyweK-dbeClSfUCcms6psvtKsCk_r6ro_0AlujYbKq4= moHn2fDj9h2GBC3QRNQpnZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44777023 44316968 43836979 43477027 42487119=20
41747225 41257376 41317472 41807536 42317540=20
43007489 43387466 43967447 44287353 44377242=20
44667142=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061817
FFGMPD NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-07001=
5-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0382
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians into the Northern
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061815Z - 070015Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to locally
expand in coverage through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are likely from
heavy rainfall rates and locally wet antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with dual-pol radar shows scattered to locally broken areas
of heavy showers and thunderstorms already impacting southeast OH,
much of WV, western MD and also southwest to northeast PA. Strong
boundary layer heating continues locally which has allowed for
MLCAPE values to rise to as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg, with the
better instability noted across southeast PA through northern NJ.
However, secondary areas of 1000+ J/kg CAPE values are also noted
across the western slopes of the central Appalachians in the wake
of earlier convection.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will generally continue to advance
east off the terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge over the
next few hours and get into at least the Piedmont areas of the
northern Mid-Atlantic. There are some question marks about the
I-95 corridor where some pockets of larger scale subsidence are
noted given proximity of a surface low center off the Delmarva,
but as this low pulls away, and additional surface heating takes
place over the next few hours, the I-95 corridor from northern VA
through northeast MD, southeast PA, and into central and northern
NJ may also get into these areas of thunderstorms. Radar imagery
shows a band of strong thunderstorms with high rainfall rates
focused from near Harrisburg, PA down through Martinsburg, WV, and
this band is associated with some evidence of a weak MCV/shortwave
impulse.

Ongoing recover of instability farther west over the central
Appalachians and the western slopes of the terrain is occurring
out ahead of a cold front, but with additional upstream shortwave
energy approaching along with the influence of orographics,
convection will be reloading across these areas going through
early this evening.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms across the entire region
will likely be 1 to 2 inches/hour, but with some additional spotty
rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 3 inches going through early
this evening. Given the impacts over areas that are already very
moist on the ground, and also the concern for some urban impacts,
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will generally be
likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7mz0OZtuNSlhagVe1Mni9j0Yb8V2ZrpBiRGIRUqIZzkSOPuBHLPYm6d7xOoThzzJ42Dh= QwNakitSH09JOftHuUGCkyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...OKX...PBZ... PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41987566 41777473 41327390 40537389 39747517=20
38767691 38047841 37438006 37228239 38398348=20
39318287 40188147 41358002 41737872 41957725=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062132
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-070250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0383
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062130Z - 070250Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy thunderstorms will shift east
over Kentucky and much of Tennessee through this evening. Heavy
rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour from repeating and merging
cells makes a likely risk for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A mesolow over western KY is accompanied by merging
lines of heavy thunderstorms with additional scattered storms over
central TN. This activity will continue to shift east in broad
zonal flow with a noted impulse in water vapor imagery over
western KY/TN. A separate wave of low pressure is along the a
frontal boundary over southern MO.

Low level WSWly flow around 20kt is maintaining elevated moisture
with 2" PW (2 sigma above normal) pooled over western KY through
central TN. Ample instability is present with MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg along and south of this moisture pool. The activity has
become more perpendicular to the mean layer Wly flow, but new
development ahead of the lines is allow for localized repeating
cells. Enhanced rainfall rates of up to 2"/hr can be expected to
continue which is in agreement with recent HRRR and RRFs runs.
Localized rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is likely through 03Z with
flash flooding considered likely.

Recent development trends have generally been south of central KY
which saw 1-2.5" rainfall this afternoon and is more vulnerable
than the rest of the outlook area. There is a threat for isolated
activity overnight, so further discussion may be needed for
portions of the TN valley overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8FQxpadhGXAguxseYKREE9hrczE6KG7MCj3tgouXcy0rZ6-XG_q6-dfpCiJ8_VAJ9CSN= MJW2tRm_ms1VrDAghDF7tW0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38098549 37638323 36618183 36058235 34998473=20
35498785 36358851 37248789 37918737=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062230
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-070428-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0384
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062228Z - 070428Z

Summary...Supercells continue to develop over West Texas this
evening with slow motion and repeating activity brings rainfall
rates up to 2"/hr which should cause scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly for areas impacted by the storms last
evening.

Discussion...Scattered supercells will continue to develop along a
surface trough set up west to east over the Caprock and through
the Lubbock metro area. There is a notable risk for intense,
long-lived supercells, much like last night in this same area due
to an environment with SBCAPE of 4000+ J/kg, PW 1.4-1.6 inches
(near or above the 90th percentile), and 50-60 kts of deep layer
(0-6 km) shear. Low-level Sly flow of 15kt is providing fresh
inflow which will only increase overnight as it intensifies into a
low-level jet.=20

Recent HRRRs are much to late with development in this area, but
the RRFs is much more energetic and decent with the current
depiction. The 6hr QPF from the RRFS is 2-4" in this west-east
corridor and helps form the basis for this discussion (along with
upscale growth to existing cells at this time. Congealing activity
should allow for repeating heavy rain while upwind propagation
should allow for longer duration of heavy rain. It is worth noting
that giant hail is also a risk with this activity. Very intense
rainfall rates up to 2-3"/hr would result in scattered flash
flooding, particularly for urban environments like Lubbock and
where the storms tracked last night which also intersected
Lubbock. Scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
likely for the outlook area.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6zXfNsLIhodgd1bjGIvbFLlLbW02M-SSlkggH4c89nFuWDKIsQ7c1rhjefzPO8hyVDRi= KPITkNfTrqALc1HKT5MIBQ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34320156 34329887 33109866 32820029 33150318=20
34090327=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062314
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-070230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0385
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062312Z - 070230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to move east over
mainly interior sections of New England this evening before
dissipating near the coast. Further localized flash flooding is
possible through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Narrow swaths of elevated instability (SBCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg) persist east of a frontal zone and inland from the
coast where a cool breeze has set up. Southerly flow ahead of the
fronts is reinforcing moisture with PW up to 1.6". Recent HRRR and
RRFS runs quickly diminish the activity shortly after 00Z, but the
presence of the instability, particularly over interior CT and up
the I-95 corridor into Maine warrants an additional note beyond
the main period of flooding that occurred this afternoon over New
England terrain back toward the Hudson Valley. Recent IR satellite
scans do show a warming trend to cloud tops, so perhaps that trend
will indeed continue as CAMs suggest. Still, an additional 2" is
possible in places through this evening which could cause further
localized flash flooding.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4rZ0-JSek5Xpjd9TQc0Ym3yvIk9yn3tkSyuGjijssjIVEIjOag1g11hI452845mxVbjK= PDclfzCmDw_6GhAqtkLwWx4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44867032 44556945 43857030 43077079 42557106=20
42157137 41677169 41387308 41717323 42997172=20
44347091=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070004
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070602-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0386
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...South-Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070002Z - 070602Z

Summary...Scattered supercellular activity over southeast Colorado
into the Oklahoma Panhandle is expected to develop into a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) rest of this evening and track
southeast overnight. The flash flood threat will increase with
this development, particularly as it crosses areas in southern
Kansas which saw heavy thunderstorms last night. Localized flash
flooding is likely through 06Z.

Discussion...Supercells in southeastern CO have developed in a
high shear (60kt 0-6km Bulk Shear)/moderate instability (1500-2000
K/kg SBCAPE) environment. Further development between the two main
cells just prior to 00Z is an indication of the expected MCS
development tonight. The right side of this developing MCS will
cross areas impacted by heavy rain this afternoon from a cell
currently in the OK Panhandle and activity from last night over
southern KS.

Ample moisture is present in CO downstream of this activity with
PW around 1". Further moisture will be provided as it moves into
KS from the nocturnal low-level jet which the development should
turn south into in spite of deep layer westerly flow in an overall
zonal flow pattern over the central U.S. Heavy rainfall is
expected with 1-2" hourly totals, and particularly where flanking
axes become repetitive. Antecedent wet soils are present over
southern KS and far southeast CO where heavy rain has fallen over
the past day.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5_nt5J6gdwMbRU_hgYii8lGfh4lqFwwKzhYBStZmzUQSn6rM0dz7ZqRfMmLhPC4j7ZnU= dEU3ajBJ-etnE2rfdEEh_R0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39400205 38889968 37839869 35609888 36120083=20
37030343 37650430 38700390 39310290=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070031
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-070600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0387
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Central Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070029Z - 070600Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving rounds of heavy rain is expected to keep
shifting east along a stalled frontal boundary from southern
Indiana through the Cincinnati metro area this evening. Localized
flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave impulse in zonal flow will continue to
shift east over the central Ohio Valley this evening. Deep layer
WSWly flow will keep activity moving parallel to a stationary
front draped just north of the Ohio River. Elevated moisture will
be maintained with 1.75" PW (2 sigma above normal) with sufficient
instability (SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Enhanced rainfall rates of
up to 1.5"/hr can be expected to continue which is in agreement
with recent HRRR and RRFS runs. Localized rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible through 06Z with flash flooding considered
possible.

Much of this area has not received rainfall over the past day.
However, the slow moving nature of this activity and the potential
for another round overnight makes for a possible flash flood
threat.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7wjxWFx4wU4ASYrmtvBUXoMmZTVDIhs-obdZ7RzOigFLwde2FsBUDyBnsnOUxthXUl73= jAjoPwvdteXb-yKcIRDvseM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39618210 39018182 38548236 38328325 38298428=20
38588585 39498581 39578437=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070451
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern KS...Far northwest TX
Panhandle...Northern & Central OK...Adj SW MO/NW AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070450Z - 070930Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective coverage as clusters grow upscale
into a quick moving MCS. Sub-hourly 1-1.5" with potential for
some repeating on southern flank results in scattered spots of
3-4" totals. Given saturated grounds, localized incidents of
flash flooding are likely.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and RADAR mosaic depict multiple
clusters of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern TX
panhandle and west-central OK in advance of expanding linear
convective complex across SW KS into the OK Panhandle. The latter
has quick momentum at the leading edge of stronger larger scale height-falls/solid DPVA across N KS at the right entrance of an
expanding/jet streak that is already 90kts across NEB at 300mb.=20
The combination is providing very strong dynamic ascent and
evacuation for developing convective line and MCV across
west-central KS. As such strong WAA has been over-spreading much
of OK into S KS from untapped very unstable environment with 3000
J/kg of MLCAPE. The strong WAA at the nose of a broad weakly
veered 25-30kt LLJ is providing the solid isentropic
ascent/moisture convergence along a lingering deep layer moisture
pool in OK which is sparking pre-linear MCS thunderstorms.

With very broad up/downdraft channels and ample 2" total PWats,
cells are becoming very efficient rainfall producers as severe
capabilities slowly diminish. Sub-hourly totals of 1-2" have been
observed even though deep layer steering allows for some
progressive forward motions. These cells are setting the stage
and further moistening the upper-layers of an already fairly
saturated grounds, especially east of I-35. So it is possible
even these pre-cursory cells may result in localized flash
flooding conditions prior to the main line. Additionally,
proximity to the southern edge of the moisture/instability, may
allow for a favored alley for training given shifting too far
south may see greater dry/stable air ingestion and favoring
maintenance north of the gradient in south-central OK.

RADAR trends show, strong vertical ascent along the leading edge
of the linear complex into Pawnee/Stafford county KS, potentially
further developing to edge of 700mb WAA ascent band north of the
Flint Hills in east-central KS. Strengthening MCV under
aforementioned strong upper-level support will allow for increased back-shearing of the complex with favorable mid-level inflow jet
likely helping to maintain broad moderate shield precipitation in
the northern rotor of the MCS near the MCV for prolonged moderate
rainfall as well across central KS. However, increasing concern
is along the southern rotor of the MCS where forward propagation
vectors will be slightly reduced allowing for increased orthogonal
exposure to the broad southerly LLJ. As such, flanking cells will
have a greater potential for training but also having best
moisture/instability flux for strongest updrafts capable of 2"/hr.
This may result in a streak/swath of enhanced rainfall totals of
3-4" across northeast TX panhandle and likely along/north of I-40,
but with solid DPVA/expanding WAA, MCS will expand for broader
area of enhanced rainfall potential into Northeast OK and
eventually southwest MO/NW AR toward 10z. Forward propagation
will likely limit significant totals but spots of 3-4" in less
than 3hrs will exceed FFG values over this saturated ground (RSM
0-40cm of 70-75%). As such, flash flooding is considered likely
overnight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5I4C4LpHxwRchMU4c7SmFWnpCtDN4OzEKtky1simUCjW2x-FINgi_FKB5BzLvcftTdbV= i3DYpwOpt3uWs3Aw-pqPHs0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38609681 38359567 37859488 37479445 36779412=20
35649436 35079520 34889646 34919786 35029913=20
35320023 36470222 37080177 37659982 38399875=20
38579789=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070536
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-071100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0389
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern OH...Central to Northeast KY...Much of
WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070535Z - 071100Z

SUMMARY...Shallow but efficient slow moving cells capable of
1.5"/hr with some potential repeating may result in widely
scattered localized flash flooding conditions overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad west to east
shortwave feature crossing near Cincinnati, OH with favorable
vorticity advection supporting a weak surface to boundary layer
wave in southeast OH along/south of a stagnant stationary front.=20
Ample low level moisture in the mid to upper 60s and spots of low
70s, while CIRA LPW shows a ribbon of enhanced moisture
along/ahead of this wave bringing nearly moist/saturated profiles
to support 1.75" total PWats. Some weak remaining unstable air
remains with 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE in the vicinity of the Ohio
River and southward into eastern KY. As such, RADAR and 10.3um
IR loop shows a few very shallow cells along of the wave in S OH
as well as back in the trailing trof of the mid-level wave
along/east of Louisville, KY.

While weak, there are pockets of enhanced moisture convergence in
the 10-15kts of veered low level flow to tap the weak instability.
With the shallow updrafts, all of it are within the warm cloud
layer, will result in highly efficient tropical like showers.=20
Rates of 1.5-1.75" could be common over highly focused fairly
narrow updrafts. The concern is the overall deep layer steering
is unidirectional nearly west to east which also will contribute
to an upslope component across E KY/WV over the next few hours.=20=20
As such, narrow streaks of hour or two of training may support
localized streaks of 1.5-2.5" over 1-3hrs across the area of
concern. Given complexity of terrain, recent above average
rainfall over S OH, N WV and soil saturation ratios in the 60-70%
and isolated incident or two of flash flooding will continue to be
possible through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!59vH941tSJub9Q0Hco0lIqH8JQrs_JYVtp37Tv6h1KkPWHWoyxJk2MmeOvpn834-6F0m= JGR5pOxnYEO2HjbwqKO0acY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39707997 39537964 39197955 38677987 38038101=20
37448208 36808358 36908489 37528538 38118588=20
38538544 38698469 38838412 38988358 39258270=20
39598157=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070736
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-071130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070735Z - 071130Z

SUMMARY...Persistent repeating convection tracking across similar
areas of heavy rain/saturated grounds suggests possible flash
flooding to continue for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E and AMA/LBB RADAR mosaic show continued solid
convective activity of elevated thunderstorms with some broader
stronger rotating updrafts from Lamb to Cottle county Texas.=20
Solid 925-850mb veered LLJ at 35-45kts from southeast to southerly
continue to ascent across a similarly flat west to east outflow
boundary a few counties south from earlier convection, continuing
to be reinforced by the ongoing activity. This shallow cold pool
continues to provide sufficient isentropic ascent and speed
convergence to maintain moisture/instability flux to the line of
cells. Recent 10.3um EIR loops has shown solid uptick in
convective vigor, cloud top cooling and hard/bumpy tops suggestive
of strengthening rainfall potential to accompany severe risks.=20

Given deep layer steering flattens from just above 700mb and slows
to 20-30kts, rainfall duration is starting to aid in overall
rainfall accumulation over the last hour or two. Rates of 1.5"/hr
given western edge of fairly deep layer moisture availability and
flux; translating over similar 1hour FFG values in the 1-1.5"/hr
range due to last few days, suggests additional spots of 2-3" over
the next 3 hours may result in additional flash flooding incidents.

GOES-E 7.3 Low-Level WV animation shows a weak circulation over
northeast NM, with tightening temperature gradient likely in
response to some outflow/gravity waves coming off active
convection along the flanking line of the complex across the
northern Panhandle. This tightening with further steepening of
the lower level isentropes/frontal zone and in proximity of a well
of enhanced capped MLCAPEs to 2500 J/kg, has seen newer convection
develop along the NM/TX border. While this development isn't
ideally aligned with convective line to the south, further
expansion (and tendency to propagate south given undercutting
outflow from the north) suggests training/potential for 1.5"/hr
and spots of 2"+ totals in short-duration is expanding toward the
northwest in the TX panhandle and adjacent NM...nearly ideally
aligned with the localized minimum in FFG values. Further
expanding the area of possible flash flooding incident or two over
the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-d-IaLsFNUx94p1dzDGfOQAmdwik4IpghVyekpdHzelC4gV_m_FkCVj5BegkKtTFJEWA= V8y_c2howmXpxPCgZxb5dYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35600270 35380195 34429971 33979844 33519853=20
33429969 33580147 33770223 34090277 34540311=20
35380356=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070853
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0391
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Northern AR...Northeast OK...Far Southeast
KS...Southwest MO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070850Z - 071430Z

SUMMARY...Progressive MCS with broad warm advective thunderstorms
downstream should support opportunities for multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall with rates up to 2"/hr and totals of 2-4" resulting
in possible incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Mature MCS continues to race east-southeastward
across the Flint Hills of south-central KS with very strong
dynamics aloft to help maintain it as it progresses into the Ozark
Plateau. Very strong divergence aloft within the right entrance
to dual jet structure aloft along with latent heat release will
continue support strong mid-level cyclogenesis. In response, VWP
networks shows broad strengthening of the LLJ with solid veering
through 700mb and winds of southwesterly components to over 30kts
through depth continuing to advect very unstable (2500-3000 J/kg
of MUCAPE) while also pooling deep layer moisture along the
southeast quadrant of the MCV to 2-2.1".=20

Given the cyclonic/isallobaric component, winds are also very
convergent to support high moisture flux along and downstream of
the MCV track. Currently, warm advective cells have developed well
into north-central AR with rates of 1.5"/hr well in advance of the
cells near the center with rates likely to be over 2"/hr. While
cells along the effective warm front are moving more
east-northeast relatively and are not ideally training with
occasional breaks in intense rainfall rates; there will be
multiple periods of heavy rainfall before capping it off with the
cells near the effective triple point, followed by an hour or so
of moderate broad shield precipitation. This will allow for a
broad area of 2-3" totals across the 4 state corners into
north-central AR toward 12z. Isolated spots on the line with
greatest duration/intensity will likely see 3-4"+ totals and
likely will drive incidents of flash flooding through daybreak.
While the hydrology gets better further east toward the MS River
Valley, the MCS is likely to maintain with similar rates/totals
though incidents of flash flooding are more likely to be more
scattered in nature relative to upstream in the Ozark Plateau

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6s5mozbPeAO_cwTyadC7xPFNKgZNLWZQOtaumSuz6qzi1-OppzHI007WRuOTKPUN1X-r= GFuJx7LH4R-ltfZZa-9EYrc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...MEG...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37829556 37749422 37409320 36989210 36529119=20
36069049 35279033 34619113 34899383 35579612=20
36369659 37289636=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071101
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-071600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0392
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Northeast PA...Central and Eastern NY...Central
and Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071100Z - 071600Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue through the morning hours across areas of northeast
PA into eastern NY, and eventually spreading into parts of central
and southern New England toward midday. Additional areas of flash
flooding are likely given locally sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...Recent cloud-top cooling is noted with a broken area
of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms impacting areas of
northeast PA into central and eastern NY. The activity is being
focused by a shortwave impulse advancing into the Northeast out
ahead a larger scale trough lifting through the OH Valley and
central Appalachians. This energy is also interacting with a
quasi-stationary front and helping to focus a wave of low pressure
which is promoting isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing
near the front for the locally heavier and concentrated areas of
rainfall.

Despite very modest instability profiles with only about 250 to
500 J/kg of MUCAPE value, the vertical column is quite moist with
PWs running a solid 1.5 standard deviations above normal, and
CIRA-ALPW data showing strong concentrations of mid-level
moisture. The recent cloud-top cooling suggests the current
activity will likely continue in the near-term, and the latest
upper-air analysis is showing some improving right-entrance region
upper-jet dynamics over the region for ascent. This will
compensate for the lack of instability over the next few hours and
continue to favor at least broken ares of highly efficient
rainfall and elevated rain rates.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5 inches/hour with the
strong convective cores, and with relatively slow cell-motions,
some short-term rainfall rates at least by late-morning may reach
2 to 3+ inches. While the activity over the next few hours will
tend to be more focused over areas of eastern NY and down into the
Poconos of northeast PA, areas of central and southern New England
will also begin to see a threat of heavy rainfall by midday.

The antecedent conditions in general across the region are rather
sensitive, with locally elevated streamflows, and thus with the
additional rainfall this morning, there will likely be concerns
additional areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5byJrrhyihI_a7_sUgyPqnZphiL7rSTIMnzasNVARuOilsnneAjMY8B_nQFx7ZhfhcxK= dVmbZpCCR1-ywu3PtM0TwNw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43717394 43387208 42417198 41757275 41277372=20
41067522 41777632 42897584=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071432
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0393
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Northeast KS...West-Central
and Northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071430Z - 071930Z

SUMMARY...Concentrated areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will be dropping down across northeast KS and into areas of
west-central and northern MO over the next few hours with some
gradual expansion in coverage. Areas of flash flooding will be
possible which will include an urban flooding threat to the Kansas
City and St. Joseph metropolitan areas.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined and relatively compact shortwave
trough ejecting east-southeast across southeast NE this morning is
expected to gradually advance down across far northeast KS and
northern MO going through the early afternoon hours. The dynamical
nature of this system interacting with modest instability with
MUCAPE values of 500+ J/kg should favor at least a sustenance of
the current activity.

However, as the diurnal heating cycle ensues over the next several
hours, there will be downstream areas of especially west-central
and northern MO that destabilize which will favor an environment
conducive for convection to expand in coverage. This will further
be facilitated by low-level convergence near a well-defined low
center over northeast KS and also with a reloading/strengthening
of a synoptic scale front across the region.

The environment on a concentrated basis with the shortwave energy
is rather moist and efficient, and rainfall rates with the
convection over the next few hours should be rather high and
capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. Given the rather slow
cell-motions that are currently seen in radar imagery, some
rainfall totals going through early this afternoon may reach 3 to
4+ inches.

This will tend to support a concern for some areas of flash
flooding in a general sense, however, these heavy rains are likely
to impact the Kansas City and St. Joseph metropolitan areas as
well. Thus, there will also be an urban flooding threat over the
next few hours as the heavier showers and thunderstorms arrive.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-X7SFVaQvKYZCM-h07XlCsRA3Q5DUXj73aoO9iF0cnj1ZJZ4ZMpSaKIeb0iD11IUc6qO= qiQyuFa8Z8-HPgrIjgCZE8g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40569574 40379385 39949208 38989191 38449300=20
38669514 39329625 40049655=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071602
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0394
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...Central and Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071600Z - 072200Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will continue to overspread much of the
northeast Mid-Atlantic region into central and southern New
England going through the mid to late-afternoon hours. This will
include some locally more concentrated areas of stronger
thunderstorm activity with higher rainfall rates. Areas of flash
flooding are likely considering the very moist and locally
saturated soil conditions.

DISCUSSION...An expansive axis of heavy rainfall in a southwest to
northeast fashion continues to advance across southeast NY and
into central and southern New England. The activity which includes
some occasionally stronger thunderstorm activity continues to be
strongly supported by an ejecting shortwave trough and associated
wave of low pressure which is transiting a well-defined frontal
zone across the Northeast.

The latest GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery shows an excellent
corridor of upper-level jet divergence/forcing over especially
central and southern New England with an expansive axis of cooling
cloud-tops over the region. There continues to be a low-level
frontogenetic response to this with the axis of heavy rainfall
which has been very efficient this morning. Shallow, warm
convective tops and frontogenetical forcing in the lower to
mid-levels of the column have been yielding warm rain processes,
and this showed up well in the 12Z ALY RAOB sounding which
depicted a deep moist column with a tall/skinny CAPE profile.

There should be a gradual uptick in the overall convective
footprint of the heavy rainfall this afternoon across especially
southern New England including the Boston, MA to Hartford, CT
corridor and potentially edging south to near the New York City
metropolitan area and adjacent areas of northern NJ by late
afternoon. This will be supported by convergence along the
aforementioned frontal zone, but also with an increase in
diurnally driven instability. Cloud cover will tend to mitigate
the amount of surface heating that does occur, but with an already
very moist column, and the aforementioned low-level and
upper-level support, there should be a gradual expansion of
heavier showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5 inches to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger cells, and the locally slow cell-motions and
pockets of at least brief cell-training may support some totals by
early this evening that reach 3 to 4+ inches. This is supported by
the 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance.

The antecedent conditions are quite sensitive over the higher
terrain of southern VT, southern NH and through central and
western MA. Runoff here over the next few hours may be enhanced
given the additional rains, and gradually heavier rainfall rates
farther south and east may pose some urban flooding concerns.
Overall, on a regional level, areas of flash flooding are likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4zyz2fNHQrNj5-6EzBlPX724UItKVK7zzsMlO1CFZPtKu2WHTKPaxkPDObDlKf4Rr6AK= yZUqQEvVW1o4fjPFj3TO9ss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44607027 44566903 43996893 42937041 41747132=20
41217275 40987314 40527430 40537520 41047545=20
41917467 42717390 43727193=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071606
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0394
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1206 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...Central and Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071600Z - 072200Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will continue to overspread much of the
northeast Mid-Atlantic region into central and southern New
England going through the mid to late-afternoon hours. This will
include some locally more concentrated areas of stronger
thunderstorm activity with higher rainfall rates. Areas of flash
flooding are likely considering the very moist and locally
saturated soil conditions.

DISCUSSION...An expansive axis of heavy rainfall in a southwest to
northeast fashion continues to advance across southeast NY and
into central and southern New England. The activity which includes
some occasionally stronger thunderstorm activity continues to be
strongly supported by an ejecting shortwave trough and associated
wave of low pressure which is transiting a well-defined frontal
zone across the Northeast.

The latest GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery shows an excellent
corridor of upper-level jet divergence/forcing over especially
central and southern New England with an expansive axis of cooling
cloud-tops over the region. There continues to be a low-level
frontogenetic response to this with the axis of heavy rainfall
which has been very efficient this morning. Shallow, warm
convective tops and frontogenetical forcing in the lower to
mid-levels of the column have been yielding warm rain processes,
and this showed up well in the 12Z ALY RAOB sounding which
depicted a deep moist column with a tall/skinny CAPE profile.

There should be a gradual uptick in the overall convective
footprint of the heavy rainfall this afternoon across especially
southern New England including the Boston, MA to Hartford, CT
corridor and potentially edging south to near the New York City
metropolitan area and adjacent areas of northern NJ by late
afternoon. This will be supported by convergence along the
aforementioned frontal zone, but also with an increase in
diurnally driven instability. Cloud cover will tend to mitigate
the amount of surface heating that does occur, but with an already
very moist column, and the aforementioned low-level and
upper-level support, there should be a gradual expansion of
heavier showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5 inches to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger cells, and the locally slow cell-motions and
pockets of at least brief cell-training may support some totals by
early this evening that reach 3 to 4+ inches. This is supported by
the 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance.

The antecedent conditions are quite sensitive over the higher
terrain of southern VT, southern NH and through central and
western MA. Runoff here over the next few hours may be enhanced
given the additional rains, and gradually heavier rainfall rates
farther south and east may pose some urban flooding concerns.
Overall, on a regional level, areas of flash flooding are likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4R4grHp5Wg6GEP5i9dXmmHXEyxfS77bhDGbtcItE8WCmURe8VWe8X4GBL0uYzWSlHgxG= KlfJnDEaOhvnu8Z8xiy84qE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44607027 44566903 43996893 42937041 41747132=20
41217275 40987314 40527430 40537520 41047545=20
41917467 42717390 43727193=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080245
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0395
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1044 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern AR...Northern MS... Adj Northwest
TX/Southwest OK...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080245Z - 080800Z

SUMMARY...Training, back-building thunderstorms within axis of
enhanced moisture capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates and localized totals
of 3-4" pose possible incident(s) of localized flash flooding
overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR and Regional RADAR mosaic depict a
west to east band of thunderstorms with a few cells starting to
expand and cool below -65C. Cells are developing within a very
favorable moisture/instability axis south of the main front. A
surface Td gradient is well denoted with mid to upper 70s Tds
within the higher theta-E axis from the Red River Valley across S
AR into N MS/AL (while being 10 degrees cooler downslope of the
Ozark Plateau in central AR. CIRA LPW also notes mid-level
layers are at the trailing end of stronger shortwave over the Ohio
Valley but the upstream wedge brings an axis of 2" total PWats
through the area of concern. In the wake of the shortwave in IL,
height-falls are starting to encroach from the northwest further
tightening the gradient of moisture/instability and given cyclonic
curl of weak (15-20kt) LLJ out of central TX has resulted in a
solid confluence axis coincident providing deep layer convergence
for convective development. Flow is fairly unidirectional
parallel to the moisture/instability gradient to support some
training/repeat potential. However, the weaker inflow from the
west suggests, convergence will be stronger along the upwind side
of deeper convective clusters/cells to support
back-building/flanking line development. Propagation vectors,
including Bunker's right mover vectors, suggest clusters will
deflect just south of due east though enough overlap should exist
for some training/repeating cells.

Much like the convergence, the best instability air remains
upstream across the OK/TX Red River Valley propagating into the
clusters mainly in SW AR. MLCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg will
remain available slowly expanding east into S AR over the next few
hours. So strong updrafts and flux should support efficient
rainfall production with 2-2.5"/hr rates possible. Given
flanking development, potential for pockets/clusters of 3-4"
totals are probable through the overnight period, with an isolated
5" total possible. Hydrologically, the area of concern has been
able to recover better than points north and NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm
soil moisture has returned to average in all but far northern MS.=20
Most values range in the 50%-60% saturation, so FFG values have
also increased back to normal ranges, generally about 2.5-3"/hr
and 4"/3hrs (2.5-3" in N MS). Given this, incidents of flash
flooding are likely to be localized and widely scattered through
the axis (though guidance/trends suggest SW AR as best potentail)
and is considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!686R-YDvXgqUdtFCEo0klNkTomWyFD5muHgprm_vlVh7XoTLfrnBSIp8w2avC4Phny32= baTHzD5nzJ_2B_AL3amshnM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34909034 34798888 34288823 33418841 32958944=20
32899195 32999383 33599495 33999507 34239482=20
34519393 34639283=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080353
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0396
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Central and southeast IND...Southwest
OH...Northeast KY...Western WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080355Z - 080900Z

SUMMARY...Scattered, focused but very intense warm cloud tropical
showers capable of quick 1.5-1.75"/hr and totals up to 2.5" may
result in possible flash flooding.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a pair of smaller scale
shortwave features moving through the Ohio Valley at the eastern
edge of the larger cyclonic synoptic trough over the Great Lakes.
A stronger mid to upper level jet swings through the Lower Ohio
into the TN River Valley, the short-wave axis continues to
elongate/shear but also act as a deep layer speed convergence trof
fro northwest IND across SW OH toward NE KY, with the base of the
shear axis rotating eastward quicker. Deep layer moisture through
the Ohio Valley remains well above average near 1.6-1.8" PWat. As
the broad 20-25kt 850mb LLJ under-cuts, it is also advecting some
weak mid-level drying to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates
and increase available instability toward 750-1000 J/kg in
proximity to speed convergence axis. As such, smaller embedded
fairly narrow updraft cores have been sprouting through the cirrus
shield where some right entrance ascent/outflow has been
increasing as the speed max exits to the northeast. Throughout
the evening these shallow updrafts have been very efficient even
with the above average moisture perhaps with some enhanced
nucleation from ingested smoke particles in the warm cloud layer.=20
Cells within the shear axis have also shown relatively slow cell
motion with some remaining stationary for over an hour resulting
in recent hourly observations of 1.25-1.5".=20

Slow eastward shift of the shear axis with the base swinging
through E KY/SW WV a bit quicker, may result in some very isolated
spots seeing a repeating of these embedded shallow convective
cells. As such, it cannot be ruled out a spot or t increase, with
even recent hourly observations of 1.25-1.5" noted.wo of 2-2.5"
totals may be possible. Still, the overall coverage is likely at
the limit of inducing more than a few isolated incidents of flash
flooding. However, hourly FFG of 1-1.5" and 3hr FFG values less
than 2" dot the of concern and so there is sufficient potential
for at least one or two possible incidents through early morning
in/along the shear axis, particularly in narrow gullies/complex
terrain within the Cumberland Plateau into central Appalachians.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_gHfN-X6UUolexQKvZLsszhNO-116VBf3HBuRFWqzcXkenLAXpKheQWLI5i2ceK8MMW7= gm5InkTNatx5bKGJKuK3uUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40958648 40858545 40488475 39868323 39608228=20
39378156 38968077 38658067 37718115 37258201=20
37348292 37598374 38108539 38318656 38898728=20
39998751 40558743 40938706=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080646
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0397
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Central AL...East-central MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080645Z - 081200Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective complex with favorable
repeating/training elements suggest localized 2-4" totals and
localized flash flooding is increasingly possible through early
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loops shows individual
cells/overshooting tops continue to cool and expand westward along
the flanking line. Cooling tops to -65 to -70C have expanded
westward generally aligned with the collapse of the upstream cells
in SE AR. 06z surface analysis along with VWP, suggests increased southwesterly flow from surface to boundary layer combined with
forward flank cold pool is resulting in a more orthogonal ascent
plane for convective expansion. GOES-WV and EIR also denotes a
trailing boundary from exiting shortwave/mid-level trough can be
seen extending across the Fall-line in SC across central GA before
angling back northwest. SWIR and RADAR shows some downstream TCu
developing along this axis; which also seems to align ideally from
NW to SE with propagation vectors.

RAP analysis shows a pool of uncapped 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE within
the best streamlines into the expanding complex. Tds in the mid
to upper 70s combined with a pool of 700mb enhanced moisture is
resulting in localized PWats of 1.8 to 2", all adding into
continued potential for 2-2.5"/hr rates. Expanding NW line should
allow for longer duration of 2-3 hours, suggesting a swath of 2-4"
is becoming more probable. Boundary layer inflow is currently
peaking around 20-30kts, but is expected to diminish slowly toward
12z, likely reducing convective strength as the complex rolls
through central AL.=20

Hydrologically, this complex as it tracks east-southeast is moving
into an area of reduced FFG values with 1hr values of 2-3" (less
than 2" near cities like Birmingham) and 3hr values are generally
around 3-3.5". As such, places of ideal, greatest prolonged
training are well within the possibility of exceedance and
therefore, flash flooding is considered possible through 12z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6h2dfuApWIR8a0OgAdP2H8Y6nzKltixtk0XLgTfPRbeMtzW-XlcUgyAAS13BYTxZWlok= NllMBeJ3p5L6gou6ECMqGlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34138859 33838705 33628573 32838543 32168556=20
32338687 33068884 33658972 34098956=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080730
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0398
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Texarkana...Northern LA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080730Z - 081300Z

SUMMARY...Continued upstream redevelopment and repeating across
Texarkana to add additional 2-4" totals continuing to pose risk of
possible localized flash flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows main shortwave across Ohio River
Valley being pressed by stronger synoptic height-falls across the
central Plains bleeding into the Ozark Plateau. This push
continues to drive northwesterly flow/drier air to sharpen the
stationary front across the Red River into the Delta Region of the
Mississippi River Valley. Broad southerly to southwesterly
surface to boundary layer flow across TX into N LA remains
providing strong deep layer moisture convergence impinged against
the front. Stronger cluster of cells moved right of the mean flow
entering northern LA left a wake of 1.5-2.5" totals and cold pool
angled from NW to SE crossing McCurtain county OK, Bowie county
TX, and Miller county AR.=20

Upglide ascent of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and low to mid 70s Td
air has resulted in additional upstream redevelopment with
additional convergence up the Red River with scattered Tcu likely
to further back-fill the downstream cells over the next few hours
as well. However, flow is near or just past diurnal maxima and
may be further veering reducing the orthogonal ascent/convergence
with time. Still, Given ample deep layer moisture to 2" and slow
southeastward repeating an additional 2-4" totals across SW AR
into N LA remain possible maintaining a low-end potential for
localized flash flooding through daybreak. Given remaining high
FFG values and inconsistent convective coverage, flash flooding is
still considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6gwX7n8loqAToh-kNs8cg_lfcsXnbUe29zBZQGomAUc-4mTUz1ZigK2GlM5qZXIimXaQ= 1lRmqhWqPu-map1JAFnPXQQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34309478 34039353 33299168 32669124 32219162=20
32319256 32769368 33239454 33749511=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080854
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-081500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0399
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
454 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Southern OH...West Virginia...Northwest
VA...Western MD...Adj Southwest PA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080900Z - 081500Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, warm cloud heavy showers capable of
1-1.5"/hr and locally 2"+ across complex terrain (or stationary
near old upper low). Isolated flash flooding remains possible
through daybreak.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts shortwave continuing to pivot
and slowly shift eastward into west-central Ohio, while westerly
flow continues to under-cut the shearing trough axis toward a new
cyclonic rotor across southwest VA. As such, remaining slug of
enhanced moisture continues to be advected upslope across E OH/WV
wringing out the remaining 1.5-1.7" total PWats remaining in the
western branch of the warm conveyor belt back to the old shearing
out shortwave. Remaining pockets of 500-750 J/kg of CAPE will
help to maintain a few localized stronger updrafts within the
larger shield precipitation. Cores will continue to be relatively
narrow but even shallow in nature will still have the capability
of efficient warm cloud processes with rates/totals of 1-1.5"
possible. Given the narrow gullies/terrain channels, this may
result in localized flash flooding incidents across WV slowly
shifting into W PA/W MD after 13-15z.=20

Further west (Western and Central Ohio), near the inner core of
the shortwave, strong directional convergence near the center may
result in similar 1-1.5"/hr rates and spotty totals of 2"+ in a
SHaRS (Subtle Heavy Rain Signature) type event due to near
stationary cell motions. This is more likely over the next 1-3
hours before the warm conveyor belt is severed by active
convection downstream toward the new developing shortwave in the Mid-Atlantic.=20

Shenandoah/Blue Ridge...
WV suite shows solid anticyclonic shield with transverse banding
features typical of right entrance ascent in proximity of central
VA as the developing shortwave starts to stretch east of the
Appalachians in the next few hours. Still with upstream shortwave
energy and surface front banked up west of the ridge, surface to
boundary layer winds will respond by backing and increasing toward
20kts in the next few hours. Convection is already starting to
develop across the Piedmont in response to the deep layer WAA, but
winds banking in easterly upslope will take a few more hours to
respond. However, as they do, they will be generally orthogonal
with solid 1.5-1.75" TPW moisture flux into developing cells along
the ridges tapping into weak unstable environment. Rates of
1-1.5"/hr will be common here as well, but may see
upstream/back-building cells for a few short-term repeating
elements. Localized totals nearing 2" may result in focused
incident or two of flash flooding especially given FFG values
remain reduced across the area ranging from .75-1.5" over NW VA/E
WV Panhandle and parts of W MD.=20

In all three locations, flash flooding is not likely to be
wide-spread nor with extreme totals over 2.5", however, given
complexity of the terrain and a wet spring in most locations flash
flooding is considered possible and scattered in nature.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ezFTiP0q22-j6h4qfS2FU0ba0bhq84ahPVQAbLfvw8BkvT2pkDWd7tmzr4CWJHqh-Rv= iRnB9s5PLqTSio-NucyFGD0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40428421 40348337 40168215 40197979 39647943=20
39657824 39167776 38047849 37767884 37587980=20
37618091 38268207 39138325 39648460 40168461=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081612
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-082210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and Northern
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081610Z - 082210Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue
through this afternoon with an expectation that scattered
thunderstorms will develop and produce heavier rates. Given the
moist and sensitive antecedent conditions, the additional rainfall
is likely to result in some runoff problems and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with regional radar data shows areas of moderate to locally heavy
rain falling over portions of western and southwest PA down
through the MD/WV Panhandles and into northern VA. This rainfall
is being driven by the arrival of a shortwave trough from the OH
Valley which is promoting a northwest to southeast corridor of
isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing along and just
poleward of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward into the
region.

Meanwhile, solar insolation is seen taking place farther west
across central and northern WV and western VA which is allowing
for some CU/TCU development over the higher terrain. Surface-based
instability is expected to continue to increase going through the
afternoon hours, and with convergent flow along the front and
orographic forcing over the higher terrain, there should be the
development and gradual expansion of some heavier shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. It should be noted
that moist low-level southeast flow is expected to become better
established into the Blue Ridge this afternoon as well, and this
may yield some locally more concentrated areas of convection in
these areas.

The environment is pretty moist and the 12Z RAOBs at KPIT and KIAD
showed 1.42 inch and 1.62 inch PWs respectfully which are at or
just above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. This overall
environment should favor at least above average rainfall
efficiency across the region and especially with some of the
forcing that will be occurring this afternoon in the warm layer of
the column.

Rainfall rates with the instability driven convective elements
this afternoon from southwest PA down through northern VA will
likely be quite high and capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour.
The 12Z CAM guidance suggests that some localized rainfall totals
by this evening may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches where some of
the slower moving cells evolve.

Given the wet antecedent conditions and high rainfall rates,
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4gCads1DEj_ivhAn6tQFEer7IwB5co9wce-7pbxIJ72pljVAewh5UyTyJNfYeNPNwFOD= a_q4Q6HNHZ5Em7cC4AH831A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41317974 41117866 40677788 39957717 38757715=20
38037794 38227904 39408035 40708079 41228041=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081807
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-090005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0403
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into Northwest TX and Southwest
OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081805Z - 090005Z

SUMMARY...Organizing supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon and
gradual consolidation into a severe MCS by this evening may result
in some scattered concerns for flash flooding where the cells to
merge or locally train.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows
strong diurnal heating over the southern High Plains which is
already favoring MLCAPE values as high as 2000 to 3000+ J/kg. A
capping inversion which still remains in place will continue to
steadily erode via additional surface heating over the next few
hours.

This will set the stage for well-organized and heavy showers and
thunderstorms to develop near and to the south of a cold front
dropping south toward the southern Plains, and also near and north
of a retreating warm front situated farther south over western and
northern TX. Already a northwest/southeast axis of elevated
thunderstorms has developed over the last couple of hours over
northwest TX given steep mid-level lapse rates.

A highly sheared environment exists with effective bulk shear
values of 30 to 50 kts in place, and these magnitudes are forecast
to slowly increase through the afternoon hours. The combination of
this and strong boundary layer instability will favor developing
and expanding coverage of supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.

Aside from well-defined severe hazards, there will be a heavy
rainfall component to the supercells considering the degree of low
to mid-level moisture that is in place. The latest CIRA-ALPW data
shows relatively enhanced moisture profiles from the surface up
through the 700 mb level, and so many of the supercell
thunderstorms will be capable of highly efficient rainfall rates
that could reach 2 inches/hour.

By early this evening, merging/consolidating supercell
thunderstorms should lead the way for a severe MCS, but as this
process occurs, there will be sufficient concerns for cell-mergers
and cell-training such that some rainfall totals reach 2 to 4+
inches.

This may result in concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding
which will include some localized urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Dms-epohnvzfqk-7f01Fr3IdQDNLaIhg1PV2eKHWEY2vbRoaYJ04MqFxmim0LVFyTpI= Ys8X_BkQQfq8-ux3LAu8NYo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36960058 36509954 35759881 35019838 34079832=20
33409886 33490002 34210078 34820146 35690220=20
36250233 36830196=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082232
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0404
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
631 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...southwestern PA into northern and eastern WV,
northern VA, western MD, and DC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082230Z - 090400Z

Summary...Short term localized totals of 2-4" likely to lead to
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in
coverage over the past few hours in the vicinity of a warm front
draped from southwestern PA through western MD, the WV Panhandle,
northern VA. A shortwave trough will pivot through the area over
the next several hours, providing additional lift via DPVA. The
mesoscale environment is characterized by a SBCAPE gradient of
500-2000 J/kg, precipitable water (PW) values of 1.4-1.7 inches
(near the 90th percentile, per IAD sounding climatology), and
effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts. MRMS estimates hourly rainfall
totals as high as 1-2" in association with WSW-to-ENE training
elements in the most intense multi-cell clusters, but fairly
progressive storm motions (averaging near 20 kts) with more
semi-discrete cells has tended to limit localized totals to 1".

Going forward, there could be more substantial organization of
convection going into the early evening hours given the overall
favorable environment for heavy rainfall. The area of greatest
concern in the near term is along the Blue Ridge Mountains from
the eastern tip of WV southward to Shenandoah NP, as well as
eastward into the DMV region. While hi-res models are not in the
best agreement (with the HRRR in particular really struggling to
properly initialize the the convection that is already ongoing),
the best signal for heavy rainfall is located in this area (with
fairly good agreement between the 18z HREF PMM and experimental
12z REFS PMM, suggesting localized 2-3" totals). There was also a
distinct uptick in the 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood 3" exceedance
probabilities (largely due to the addition of the 18z NAM-nest),
which indicate 30-50% odds for localized 3" exceedance (through
03z). Given 3-hr FFG as low as 1.0-1.5" (mainly across northern
sections of the MPD, including the aforementioned area of
concern), isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
likely. Convection should decrease substantially in coverage by
03-04z with waning instability and increasing convective
inhibition.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-mdYoAd0Hn_BrnMbqGyn2_P9vSuI-RA8SinqHC4y-e1RNcxsNaxZ57tvWMTsAXa-dH8-= fxWKHq3-neq0PTJwq8-qobQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40287932 40237883 39887815 39487738 39107685=20
38617697 38007695 37317740 37047812 37157854=20
37567865 38277858 38867921 39168012 39768049=20
40098017 40247979=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090026
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-090600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0405
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Northwest and North TX, Central
and Southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090025Z - 090600Z

Summary...Localized hourly totals of 2"+ with 3-6 hour totals of
3-5" likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Convection is rapidly proliferating across
southwestern and central OK and the TX Panhandle into the Big
Country within an extremely unstable environment (MU CAPE
3000-5000 J/kg). While many cells remain discrete (mainly into the
TX Big Country and North TX) with many splitting supercells and
deviate cell motions, storms are becoming much more linearly
organized over the TX Panhandle into western OK, as a cold pool
becomes established within an area of broad low-level convergence
(situated between a cold front near the OK/TX Panhandle border and
a warm front just to the south). Precipitable water values range
from 1.4-2.0" (between the 90th percentile and max moving average,
per AMA/OUN/FWD sounding climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km)
bulk shear of 40-60 kts (also near or above the 90th percentile).
MRMS estimates indicate very heavy precipitation in association
with the supercells (as much as 1" in 15-min), and hourly
accumulations are as high as 1.5-2.5" (mostly in association with
training convection where storms are organizing linearlly).

A chaotic mix of storm modes will continue into the evening, as
the developing MCS continues to grow upscale over the TX Panhandle
into southwestern and central OK with splitting supercells and
merging (possibly organizing into their own smaller clusters/bows)
downstream into the TX Big Country and North TX. Eventually the
MCS will become the dominant force and rapidly propagate into
southern OK and North TX (with the upwind/downwind propagation
vectors favoring ESE-SE movement at 30-50 kts), tracking over
areas that will have already seen heavy precipitation from earlier
discrete convection. Resulting localized 6-hr rainfall totals
(through 06z) of 3-5" are expected (per 18z HREF PMM QPF) with the
most favored corridor along and south of the Red River of the
South (where 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood 3" exceedance
probabilities range from 40-70%, shifted a bit south based on more
recent hourly HRRR/RRFS data, as well as experimental WoFS data).
Merging supercells and training elements will also be capable of
2"+ hourly totals with corresponding HREF 1-hr FFG exceedance
probabilities as high as 20-50%. Given both the extreme hourly
rates and potential for 3-6 hour totals in excess of 3", scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7PuY86IVZnMuGVpfzrrdIxQvWlBrLbH_y1-spoByVky45f0XovAiLEHVcw8AXrYJ18RB= MgwL_tsGnAmIRSccpfJ9CwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35680155 35440070 35429965 35499884 35689805=20
34609564 32829475 31889619 31799831 32400042=20
33150143 34150143 35360220=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090317
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-090700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0406
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...South-central to Southeast Virginia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090315Z - 090700Z

SUMMARY...Continued limited flash flooding risk continues for a
few more hours as remaining training cells approach southeast VA
and more susceptible urban environment.=20=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and RADAR mosaic across the
Mid-Atlantic shows a slowly stabilizing environment, particularly
northward along the advancing occluded front from HGR/FDK MD into
north-central VA toward the triple point near LKU. The warm front
remains well defined cross the lower neck into Hampton Roads and
out into the Atlantic through the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.=20
RAP analysis shows a well of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE along and
east of the slowly advancing cold front out near the slopes of the
Blue Ridge across south-central VA into southeast VA. However,
VWP shows mid to upper level trof is starting to slide away
further northeast but 850mb winds remain mildly convergence as
down-sloping becomes more westerly and into the 20-25kt range. As
such, a few convective cells remain across south-central VA and
while there are some indications of cold pool/outflow, there is
some upstream redevelopment on that low level convergence to keep
activity going. Deep layer flow remains a bit north of ideally
parallel to the orientation of the ongoing convection but still
remains suggestive of training/repeat component as the cells
continue to drift east.=20

Total moisture of 1.75" and deep warm layer and flux for rainfall
production helps to maintain solid efficiency for 1.5-1.75"/hr
rates with length of training to support 1-2 hour duration for
additional 1.5-3" totals over the next few hours. This is a the
lower threshold of FFG values in the rural areas, however, if
cells can maintain strength and tap remaining instability pockets,
these rates/totals would pose a greater potentail for flash
flooding across the urban locations from Richmond/Petersburg
southeastward toward Norfolk and Hampton Roads. So while not the
highest confidence it will given the stabilizing environment with
loss of heating...the risk is sufficient for localized flash
flooding to continue to be possible for the next few hours.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!51BV9I7SzZjyVQ3VKsMpcyrKrro_3Hrxdx8wnGGZ0JH4OgfvDf9kBSK-dYfHnLXB8_ki= YtsRcfwdUVnvu1lAofsMc08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37857671 37637628 37077605 36847595 36567584=20
36327595 36397697 36557779 36587861 36767934=20
37157952 37427867 37637752 37747708=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090450
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0407
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1249 AM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Much of northern & Central TX...Northwest
LA...Southwest AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090450Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...Very large, progressive MCS. Greater duration of
intense rain-rates along the warm advective wing on the northeast
side as well as along the flanking line due to repeating pose best
potential for 2-3" totals much in very short-duration.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a large dual clustered MCS
across the Central Red River Valley back into the Rolling
Plains/Big Country of Texas within a highly diffluent portion of
the mid to upper-level flow at the base of a broad, strong
synoptic low. This divergent pattern combined with a very
moist/unstable environment has supported a strong MCV located at
the northeast side of the complex in SE OK, quickly shifting
east-southeast. Given the secondary explosive convective
development a secondary weaker MCV can be seen further southwest
near KMWL with a strong/broad bowing segement connecting the two
features as an effective cold front ahead of the northern strong
1013mb meso-high. Further upstream, left exit dynamics and
southerly inflow from the Pecos river valley shows a third
cluster/linear convective complex acting as a caboose to the
overall complex, sweeping through with another strong burst of
intense rainfall rates (though equally progressive given the
downward mixing of strong flow aloft).

Overall the deep layer flow with the diffluence as supported a
very progressive southeastward propagation that is starting to
limit overall duration of the most intense rain-rates. CIRA LPW
and overall Total PWAT animation shows the complex is propagating
into slightly drier overall environment through depth, though it
continues to currently ingest 2-2.25" total PWats allowing for
efficient rates over 2-3"/hr...yet, the quickness is generally
limiting the initial burst to about 1-1.5" in 15-30 minutes, with
broad moderate shield precip adding an additional .5-1" through
the main line. However, southerly inflow on broad 20-25kt LLJ is
advecting this drier and lower theta-E air, so rates should
continue to diminish with greater dry air and forward propagation
expected, reducing the overall flash flooding potential,
especially as the convection moves off into the Heart of Texas and
into NW LA where FFG values are over 2-2.5"/hr, making FF risk
limited to urban areas.

With that stated, there will remain two axes of increased rainfall
duration: 1) Precursory to the squall line WAA downshear of the
MCV center across NE TX into far NW LA/SW AR increasing overall
duration and training. Expected totals of 2-3" are probable with
an isolated spot of 4" possible. MCV may also slow and rotate
northeastward further increasing duration of this training axis.=20
2) The other is along the flanking line of the overall complex
that is favorably oriented from WNW to ESE fairly parallel to the
deep layer steering of the MCS. In addition, south to
south-southwesterly isentropic ascent may help for additional
development along the outflow boundary...though with lower
unstable and moisture environment, extending the duration of
thunderstorm activity and repeat/training will have the greatest
potential for those 2-3" totals and continue scattered ongoing
flooding in the southern Big Country into northeast Hill country
as the trailing 'caboose' linear complex slides through out of the
southern Rolling Plains.

So all in all, the coverage of flash flooding will be reducing
with a few axes of enhanced risk and given the ongoing flash
flooding with upstream rainfall likely...flash flooding will
remain likely through 10z, but reducing becoming more widely
scattered in nature eventually becoming only an urban concern
further south and east.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7iZ9QbBIW8NgwOmIRWKr69Fd02TdQRo2MD-wLx90BpK1HGllYPUNay--4nuOk1QAPLeE= 0s1vLBCqICnIDVyGfl54Lvs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LUB...LZK...MAF...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34069465 33549339 33339303 32979215 32119211=20
31679258 31579339 31259461 30729641 30989757=20
31739974 32200062 32740093 33200032 33219972=20
33099877 32919765 32949610 33329553 33909516=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090521
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0408
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 AM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern MS...Southern AL...Far Western FL
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090520Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...Stationary/slow moving clusters along old outflow
boundary/theta-E gradient pose highly focused totals to 4"+ and
possible widely scattered rapid inundation flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...04z Surface and RAP analysis shows a solid theta-E
gradient across southern GA, southeast AL before dipping near
Pensacola, FL before angling northwest into south-central MS with
about 4-8 degrees making it subtle. However, total PWat analysis
shows the feature much better with long strung out axis of 2"+
total PWats seen well at the 850-500mb layers in CIRA LPW.
Recent uptick in southwesterly surface to 850mb flow at 5-15kts
results in sufficient isentropic ascent in small clusters (near
the angle in far W FL) and utilizing the slightly uncapped 2000
J/kg MLCAPE along the boundary. Upper level flow is generally
weak, but with the approach of the stronger upper-level jet
upstream in the Plains, is providing some deeper layer effective
bulk shear into the 20-30kt range to provide some organization to
the convective clusters to keep the downdrafts from collapsing in
on the clustered updrafts. Given total PWats of 2" and sufficient
15kt flux, rates of 2-2.5" have been seen in these clusters.=20
Currently the line is still upstream enough that 500-1000
thickness weak and therefore, upstream inflow is about equal to
easterly steering flow to keep cells fairly stationary to weakly
moving. New updrafts along weak outflow helps to expand the
clusters (particularly further west into south-central MS), so
isolated totals of 3-5" are becoming increasingly possible
resulting in focused possible rapid inundation flooding.

As the upstream MCS continues to barrel through eastern Texas, low
level inflow will back a bit and WAA should expand convective
initiation southern to west-central MS. This increase in inflow
is also likely to increase forward cell motions toward the north
likely reducing overall totals but increasing coverage of 1-3"
totals in advance of the line. Will have to continue to monitor
the area into the dawn time frame for subsequent MPDs.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5VbDJ44c3Rmz2iJAcrVXKwhNHGe5Pw8kVwV9suXhlnncytmYwmtK5OYyQnPtS7VPo78q= mZd6sc90VaeBfwjoG71E6uY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32608994 31938809 31768645 31388595 30698598=20
30298622 30338699 30488782 30788833 31068944=20
31559031 32149076=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090920
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0409
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 AM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Central MS...Southwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090920Z - 091500Z

SUMMARY...Training WAA convective cells with capability of 2"/hr
rates and spots of 2-3"+ may result in possible localized
incident(s) of flash flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and surface observations show rapidly
decaying MCS continuing to press eastward along the LA/AR border
with outflow boundary starting to reach northeast LA where it
intersects with slowly lifting frontal boundary that has had some
active convection along it earlier this mornign across S MS.=20
Surface to boundary layer winds are increasing with approach of
the MCS and slightly increased WAA over the boundary breaking out
more numerous updrafts across central MS connecting up to the
lifting older cluster out of south-central MS. From 850-500mb,
winds are fairly flat from west to east to allow for solid
potential for training of these cells. CIRA LPW also denotes the
weak amplifcation of the surface to 850mb moisture up the MS River
Valley but also still pooled along the deeper layer boundary
toward SW AL and active cluster in south-central AL as well. TDs
in the mid-70s with 850-500mb moisture axis continue to support
2-2.25" total PWats and with upstream faster flow associated with
the MCS, propagation vectors have reduced to about 5kts and are
supportive of backbuilding into the approaching outflow boundary.=20
As such a few hours of efficient rainfall/training should allow
for 2-3"+ totals across central MS.

Slowly the cells will move into more senstive soil conditions from
east-central MS into south-west AL from last evening's heavy
rainfall, this may increase the potential for higher than normal
run-off and incidents of flash flooding, but the air is drier
aloft and more stable, and without very strong WAA to advect
northward it may be more difficult to maintain stronger convection
across this region, but at the same time, will not require as much
rainfall totals (2-2.5" in 3-6hrs) than over the drier conditions
of central MS. Either way, hourly rates and 3hour totals will be
close enough to suggest localized incidents of flash flooding will
be possible through early morning hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49iAVeDqXzTLS09rM5rKAjVr573UgnYL74fGpAMblDT-x7fm-Iwr6ZcscrmThd3BdZSp= ySCU5-yh4-MIx4zdPyLsJR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33649014 33468862 32828762 32548709 32258628=20
31638628 31168664 31268799 31788932 32029021=20
32289124 32859149 33449128=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091812
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-092330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0410
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...eastern OH/western PA/western NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091810Z - 092330Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from
eastern OH into western/northwestern PA and western NY through
early evening. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches are expected with
localized totals of 2 to 3+ inches from short term training.

Discussion...1745Z visible satellite and regional imagery showed
developing showers and thunderstorms extending from central Lake
Ontario into northwestern PA, along a pre-frontal trough axis/wind
shift. Back to the west, additional activity was forming over
central and eastern OH, just ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Area 12Z soundings and GPS PWs indicated precipitable water values
ranged from 1.2 to 1.5 inches within the warm sector from central
OH to western NY and the 17Z SPC mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg from near Buffalo, NY to southern/eastern OH.

Continued surface heating through a mixture of cloud coverage=20
across the region and southwesterly low level advection of
moisture will allow surface temperatures/dewpoints to come up a
bit more through peak heating supporting RAP forecasts of MLCAPE
by 21Z of 500-1500 J/kg for the MPD threat area. A mixture of
storm types will be possible given sufficient shear/instability
for organized convection but storm motions are expected to be
roughly 30-40 kt for most of the region which should keep
individual cells progressive. However, as the cold front slowly
progresses eastward, pre-frontal convergence axes and
storm-induced outflow boundaries are expected to align with the
unidirectional flow from the SW, supporting periods of training.
Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected within training and
localized 2 to 3+ inch totals will be possible through about 00Z.
Flash flood guidance is relatively low (1+ inches per 1 to 3
hours) from portions of eastern OH into a good portion of PA and
into areas of NY just north of the PA border. Exceedance of these
lower FFG values will potentially lead to a few areas of flash
flooding as storm coverage increases over the next few hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ZXUTkxpvlUH8KGv3x_3a6D9qEh_rRIlCe2DumB2r968SIP6VtdEzz9JN1uEkBZce_bX= n3g19xnWQGS3ibG_h565x2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43787671 43417592 42327661 40907872 40088075=20
39748201 40238294 41298225 42437986 43407908=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091952
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0411
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091950Z - 100150Z

SUMMARY...Some isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
are possible into the early evening hours, especially across parts
of southern AL where recent heavy rain has left soils saturated.

DISCUSSION...The southwestern flank of old outflow boundary
related to an MCV trekking across northern GA has stalled near the
central Gulf Coast and is seeing continued cellular east-west
thunderstorm development over the last few hours across southern
MS/AL. Currently storms are struggling to produce rainfall rates
over 1.5"/hr per MRMS, but these rates should increase as higher
instability and PWATs advect into the region. SPC mesoanalysis
highlights 4,000 J/kg of SBCAPE in the area near southern MS and
southeast AL, which falls in the area of inflow towards developing
storms as the column mean flow remains out of the west-southwest.
This is also parallel to the linear orientation of storms and will
promote some backbuilding and more widespread heavy rainfall as
opposed to cellular activity due to the influence of a shortwave
approaching the lower Mississppi Valley. PWATs are as high as 2"
and the 18z RAP depicts these values increasing and expanding with
time across the central Gulf Coast states this evening.

Recent HRRR and experimental RRFS guidance is similar with respect
to current convection, but differ with potential initiation
southward closer to the Gulf Coast. The RRFS is likely overdone,
but with the eventual convection also most likely greater in
coverage than HRRR guidance given parameters available (HRRR
suffers from a low-level dry bias). Additionally, soils remain
saturated near the border of south-central AL and the far
northwestern FL Panhandle where MRMS estimates an average of 2-5"
of rain has fallen in the last 12 hrs. This results in an area of
greatest concern for more widespread and impactful flash flooding.
Otherwise, the remainder of the highlighted region more isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible.


Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4BR4jsq545OsDMOgJeXhuzHlNlCETLmqgN0m3BjDqE1TDTwgroLnKKdZR_j0og48CZ2m= C4nGlGSJxai1xLsoy9TUPAw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31778695 31608621 31338587 30988614 30868705=20
30758807 30508921 30568991 31009000 31488921=20
31738820=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092101
FFGMPD
NMZ000-100300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0412
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092100Z - 100300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for
several more hours anchored near the terrain of the Southern
Rockies, before activity begins to eject into the southern High
Plains by 00z tonight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST infrared satellite imagery shows cooling
cloud tops across northern NM over the last hour across much of
northern NM and the terrain of the southern Rockies. Maximum
hourly rainfall rates have been estimated per MRMS up to 2"
briefly near Las Vegas, NM earlier this afternoon. This activity
should continue through at least 00z centered over the higher
elevations until activity congeals and a large cold pool develops,
helping eject convection southeastward into the southern High
Plains. Additionally, a shortwave diving across southern CA
evident in GOES-East WV imagery will add to the ability for storms
to continue sliding eastward once forward motion picks up.

Sensitive terrain across the Sacramento Mts. and burn scars from
the past few years remain the greatest concern for flash flooding
as any storm will likely contain rainfall rates greater than
0.5"/hr. PWATs per SPC's mesoanalysis are in the 0.75-1.0" range
and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater in the High Plains). This is
sufficient enough to maintain updrafts further until the growing
cold pool takes over. NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-2 m relative soil moisture
show much of northern NM in the 80-90th percentile, but with the
central High Plains closer to average. FFG is as low as 1.5-2.0"
for 3-hr in the highlighted area outside of burn scars, with
recent HRRR guidance showing additional scattered 3-hrly totals
around 1.5". This information leads to the potential for
additional scattered flash flooding coverage into this evening.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--kVV-qNvsnlPSCg4i3e_o5haCriyHHUmFgjyDBDRskDVkOT02vVH1vDwE8TzzSicfxy= XKRfCKJ0EX8ZZLKBEZVbAFQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36990510 36970405 36550368 35950408 35260409=20
34430357 33520385 32890453 32500515 32680576=20
33220586 33670608 34050662 34510690 35170699=20
35850694 36400667 36790605=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092323
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-100520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0413
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Great Lakes and Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092320Z - 100520Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm activity ahead of an advancing cold
front is expected to continue exhibiting brief training and likely
producing additional isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding into at least the early overnight period. Maximum hourly
amounts of 1-1.5" are most likely, but should occur within the
very saturated and already flood-prone region of the central
Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar, satellite, and surface observations
indicate periods of heavy rainfall and numerous thunderstorms
stretching from northwest PA into western NY, along with
developing cells and scattered thunderstorms across central PA
into WV and northern VA. These storms are all generally moving
northeastward ahead of an approaching pair of cold fronts swinging
across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, easterly low-level flow off the
Atlantic has produced an area of convergence along the central
Appalachians extending from western VA along the Allegheny Mts
through Upstate NY. This area of convergence could be a focus
along sensitive terrain (1-hr FFG less than 1") for brief
training/slow-moving storms and scattered flash flooding.

PWs in the area are generally around 1.3-1.5", which isn't too
spectacular and falls under the 90th climatological percentiles
per the NAEFS ESAT. However, the strong southwesterly 850mb flow
of 35-40 kts increase IVT above the 90th climatological percentile
and could be what pushes the setup towards greater flash flooding
potential for a few additional hours after sunset. Instability
remains sufficient along this convergence zone with MLCAPE over
1,000 J/kg, leading to the maintenance of updrafts due to the
combined effective bulk shear in the area. Latest HRRR and
experimental RRFS guidance depicts hourly totals up to 2" possible
and 18z HREF probabilities for 3-hr totals greater than 2" as high
as 40%. All of this within a region of the central Appalachians
containing 1-hr FFG less than 1" and 3-hr FFG less than 2", as
well as monthly rainfall running 200-300% above normal. These
factors support the likelihood of additional isolated to scattered
flash flooding, but with the magnitude of impacts potentially
limited given the overall storm system is progressing eastward
with time.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ThDQOe09jaiTiQ6WW3f6kzi2MOJvymk3fwPZ9k3lUC3mfTpZJirPre-3Os14FUKM2cM= DgZHl-p60loNrU8b5228ZeM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44037585 43387535 41367669 39817749 39077824=20
39127926 39677983 41007947 42567801 43737661=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100115
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-100710-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0414
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM into West-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100110Z - 100710Z

SUMMARY...The combination of leading discrete cells and a
developing MCS ejecting out of the NM High Plains will lead to the
potential for scattered flash flooding and isolated rainfall
totals of 2-4", mostly occurring within a few hours.

DISCUSSION...A lingering outflow boundary/cold front extending
across central TX towards the corner of southwest NM has already
triggered convection in the form of discrete cells (some
supercells) between Midland and San Angelo. Reflectivity values
greater than 65 dBZ and hydrometeor classification depict these
cells as primarily a hail/severe threat to start as opposed to
heavy rainfall. However, given the slow motion of these cells and
the eventual influence of an approaching MCS, flash flooding could
become more of a concern into the early overnight hours.

ML CAPE values of 2,000-3,000 J/kg remain in place along with east-southeasterly flow converging along the outflow/frontal
boundary helping maintain a relatively moist column and PWs
1.-1.5" (highest east near San Angelo in the highlighted area).
This convergence promotes the greatest potential for longer
duration rainfall and amounts that may exceed local FFG.

3-hr FFG in the area is as low as 2-2.5" in local spots but
generally as high as 3-4". This remains the limiting factor
regarding confidence in flash flooding magnitude as well as the
expected fast forward motion of the later MCS ejecting out of NM.
However, coverage of heavy rainfall with amounts up to 4" where
cells merge and/or on the northern and southern fringes of the MCS
near any developing bookend vortices could trigger a few instances
of flash flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67dXaBBc9SQ2iLzT0sX4G3-K5ozsP0tF8C3lLhZizsxMl2yoooYfMIZgt_G7_JFBBd3d= gXnpKwh7hbXdY3bznqsHoHU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34920343 34870257 33690162 32730096 31830044=20
30980012 30880086 31490149 31930233 32110346=20
32460407 33150428 34220398=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100212
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0415
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1011 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...East-central AL...Central GA...West-central SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100210Z - 100700Z

SUMMARY...A corridor of developing thunderstorms within a
favorable training environment may pose a streak of 2-3" totals
with an isolated 4" spot or two.=20=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts an elongated trough along the East
Coast States, with a few inflections noted toward the tail end
across the Southeast. The lead wave is fairly strong and
progressive exiting Upstate SC into central NC while the secondary
wave is a big more elongated west to east across central AL. VWP
shows deep layered unidirectional flow between the waves allowing
for a favorable west to east training profile. RAP analysis along
with CIRA LPW denotes the axis between the waves is increasingly
confluent but also has allowed for increased theta-E air through
depth for a narrow corridor of 1.75-2" total PWats, as well as
axis of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE (favored toward 2000 J/kg
upstream).

Regional RADAR shows, old outflow/bowing segment from older
convection crossing the AL/GA, in front/along the wave, surface to
boundary layer winds appear to be increasing slightly with
enhanced backed flow for convergence/ascent into the mid-level
confluence axis. As such, EIR and RADAR show increasing
convective activity with spotty stronger updrafts/cooling towers
across central GA into West central SC. So, while the
inflow/convergence is likely the most limiting factor, it is
currently sufficient for cells capable of 1.5-2"/hr rates.=20=20

Given the length of the corridor and likely consistent
unidirectional flow to maintain training even through a narrow
axis, there should be solid opportunity for training/repeating to
allow for a streak or two of 2-3" in 1-3hrs with perhaps an
isolated 4" spot or two; and while the ground conditions are
relatively dry, especially toward the SC/GA line, these rates and
potential totals have solid potential for isolated FFG exceedance
and possible incident(s) of flash flooding over the next few
hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4jQKAe_xI8NoO_mNKwuxAWS9XtxxTnxQMeAu6_Y8qnsHAvmraTVBkxy0LwWMcaKbvf7k= rLdpUq3w7BoPbMQqJXFDCbo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33868108 33428073 32928135 32698193 32278373=20
32228479 32308558 32558594 32988591 33218511=20
33598324 33818193=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100337
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0416
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Eastern PA...South-Central NY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100335Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Strong, efficient rainfall producing line of
thunderstorms likely to continue flash flooding risk in complex
terrain with spots of 2-3" probable.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW along with RAP and surface analysis shows a
pocket/narrow wedge of surface to 850mb moisture lifting north
through N MD into south-central MD with overall totals reaching
over 1.5" through full depth. The wedged stationary front that
has been banked up through east-central PA has seen some
sharpening as the cold air damning region over the
Poconos/Catskills has seen a low level wind shift from the
southeast further increasing moisture convergence as the
initial/leading edge of the effective leading cold front maintains
about a 20-45 degrees of convergence at the western edge of the
warm conveyor belt/wedge of enhanced moisture. This higher,
untapped unstable air continues to run about 500-750 J/kg with
MUCAPE through the narrowing warm sector still about 250 J/kg into south-central NY.=20

Aloft, the split in the upper-level jet/maximum diffluence
continues to provide solid outflow in both directions and
maintaining updraft strength though the eastern branch arch can be
seen crossing the Potomac River just upstream which has been
limited the upstream convective environment a bit more to allow
for continued inflow across south-central PA. Additionally, as
the base of the leading shortwave continues to peel northward
across Lake Ontario, the trailing DPVA is providing a secondary
push of convergence across north-central PA with new sprouting
development in Tioga county lifting northward, so while
instability is reducing, there is sufficient dynamics to maintain
a risk of slowing eastward propagation cells across south-central
NY near the surface wave/intersection of the lead/dying cold front
at the peak of the warm conveyor belt.=20=20

Throughout the line with total PWats to 1.5", 20-30kts of low
level, strong convergent/confluent flow should continue to support
stronger cells capable of efficient warm cloud processes and rates
of 1.5" occasionally reaching 1.75"+/hr. Oblique cell motion
toward the NNE and density of convective cores will allow for
scattered training/repeating elements to increase over 1-2hrs for
spots of 2-3" totals. Given complex terrain/naturally lower FFG
values, incidents of flash flooding are likely to continue into
eastern PA with the Poconos/Catskills at naturally higher risk for
rapid flows in narrow channels/gullies.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_x61LFay-usRBSoxljti9TPZrQYleq3hQosjiH3DMAcITMbh-FTunpzAwFjVuFvAfpHP= 8vssGY5xzH1_sKZ8-uvp0gY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43117482 42607439 41847461 40887516 40117576=20
39797614 39737660 39807792 40647760 42117689=20
43097588=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101637
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-102202-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0417
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...East-Central TX...West-Central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101636Z - 102202Z

Summary...Periodic training/repeating of showers and thunderstorms
with max rainfall rates of 2.5-3"/hr will drive an isolated flash
flooding risk this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar trends depict expanding convective coverage on
a west-east axis over portions of East-Central TX and West-Central
LA along a weak stationary front, downstream of a decaying MCS and
associated MCVs south of the DFW Metro. Maximum estimated rainfall
rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hour are noted within the most intense
cores per single source radar and MRMS.

Amid strong insolation, favorable midlevel lapse rates (7-7.5
degrees), and PWATs of 1.8-2" (around the 90th percentile per SPC
climatology), the environment is very favorable to support
efficient warm rain production in the developing activity along
the front, with hourly rainfall rates of 2.5-3"/hr possible at
times. While effective shear is generally quite weak across the
region, short term forecasts from the RAP suggest the approach of
the MCVs could promote a corridor of enhanced shear oriented
parallel to the boundary (20-30 kts) to support cell longevity and
periods of repeating/training.

As additional cells fill in and align with the upstream complex,
both the HREF and RRFS PMM suggest localized rainfall totals of
2-4" are possible along the front. While soil moisture anomalies
within the affected region are generally around normal, the
intense hourly rates combined with periods of repeating/training
will support an isolated flash flood risk going through the
afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-GW-sRjXvmcluTaZOuIQkmVsLvs49IQ7VNCkXws0PT4y3a1WTCHaS3MPRbXHgjN4wvBH= _vpIa9DIzXRzWB4E9fnD_No$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32299605 31999432 31389217 30929180 30579214=20
30639323 31019563 31459671 32069678=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110109
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0418
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
908 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...middle Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110107Z - 110600Z

Summary...Flash flood potential from locally high rainfall rates
of 2 to 3 in/hr will set up over portions of the middle Rio Grande
Valley into south-central TX through ~06Z.

Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and area radar mosaic
imagery showed an MCS advancing south and east across the middle
Rio Grande into northern Coahuila. Outflow was observed to be
primarily advancing southeastward into northern Mexico and down
the Rio Grande. The progressive nature of the outflow, advancing
~30 kt over the past 1-2 hours across Val Verde County, was
limiting the flash flood threat. However, short term rainfall
rates within the line of 1 to 1.5 inches in 30 minutes have been
reported at times since 22Z.

Southeast of the ongoing convective system was the presence of a
remnant, increasingly diffuse, outflow boundary that extended from
near San Antonio Bay WNW across the South Texas Plains toward Del
Rio. Some localized convective development along this boundary has
been noted across southeastern Val Verde into western Kinney
counties over the past 30-60 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis data from
00Z showed weak inhibition coupled with strong to extreme MLCAPE
values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg along and south of the boundary, with
lower CAPE values and modest to moderate inhibition to its north.
The diurnal cycle along with the approach of an upper level
shortwave over the western TX/Mexico border should support an
increase in southerly 850 mb winds through 03Z, along the
lower/middle Rio Grande Valley with recent RAP guidance supporting
20 to 30 kt. Increasing upper divergence and diffluence ahead of
the upper trough and low level convergence ahead of the advancing
MCS and increasing low level jet may encourage additional cell
development in advance of the progressive leading edge of the MCS
in the vicinity of the remnant surface boundary over southern TX.
The high CAPE/moisture environment along with relatively weak
deeper layer mean flow could support a few slow moving cells, to
be followed by a quick inch or two with the expected advancing
convective line. Localized flash flood potential could result for
portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX as
a result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4MklZ87qO4ZtWTE7P1gBV5ZPAojTBMtx3s8cVwtbQq8-PgjFQSQJCplx4P8IQGoJHK7_= svy-UJ6zkcylj8Jc436UPjs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30510048 30429988 30069896 29599843 29109845=20
28599874 28119929 27970002 28100037 29050089=20
29320124 29800147 30130134 30460093=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110530
FFGMPD
TXZ000-111100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0419
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southern Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110530Z - 111100Z

SUMMARY...Mature MCS likely to start weakening over next few hours
but continue to have embedded very intense rain rates up to 2"/hr
which may support localized totals to 3.5". Increasingly
scattered incidents of flash flooding are still possible through
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um shows large MCC across the southeastern
Edwards Plateau heading into the more hydrologically sensitive
Balcones Escarpment. Cloud tops have been generally cooling on
the periphery of the cloud shield, though the center continues to
bubble with numerous over shooting tops colder than -75C. AMV/WV
suite shows the upper-level vorticity center is starting to carve
out some sort of broad closed low across the Pecos River Valley
with a upstream speed max at 500-300mb rounding the southwest
quadrant with a broad diffluent pattern noted over the core of the
MCC. As such, latent heat release from the strong convection and
solid outflow is rapidly strengthening an MCV just west of KSAT
along the Balcones Escarpment. Surface temperatures still remain
in the mid to upper 80s over mid 70s TDs supporting a narrow
corridor of remaining significant 3000 J/kg CAPEs to maintain
strong updrafts to further feed the MCV. Isallobaric wind
response to the MCV is resulting in strong convergence along and
downstream in the effective warm-advection wing of the cyclone
across the eastern Hill country providing solid convergence to
maintain scattered convection even where instability has reduced
substantially northward into the Heart of Texas. Given slightly
longer duration in weaker steering flow (within the southeast
quadrant of the developing closed low aloft further west),
localized pockets of 2-3" totals. Combine this with lowered FFG
and saturated upper soils from last night's MCS, will keep
potential for scattered possible incidents of flash flooding
through the late overnight period.

South of San Antonio into Southern Texas...
Rates will remain strongest with the higher unstable, greater deep
moisture (TPW to 2"+) along and southward along the bowing
segment. However, given it will continue to be bowing out likely
with some downward mixing from mid-level rear inflow jet...faster
forward progress should limit overall totals likely to 1-1.5" in
30-60 minutes. Given these rates will be over higher FFG of South
Texas, the potential for flash flooding will be likely limited to
urban centers and traditionally prone areas with those extreme
short-term bursts. So while it is not completely a non-zero
chance, the potential for FF, south of I-10 is much reduced.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7LVeQc-XfvkX2x1aP6ZjA0PlHnskdFZrUw5CB32dj7jBuqhwRe5fwyfdAeChSQL2edC2= pIIA93fktz2miJGTaGHvsvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32229696 31989610 31209593 29959673 28039753=20
27499825 27379893 27529968 27819995 28969935=20
29889954 30909995 31569946 32059829=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111823
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-120007-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0420
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...Eastern TX...Far Western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111822Z - 120007Z

Summary...Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing
along and ahead of a persistent MCS in eastern TX. Training
segments ahead of the MCS, and overlapping of heavy rainfall will
drive additional scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...A complex forecast continues this afternoon as an MCS
persists across Eastern TX, with leading thunderstorm segments
exhibiting training characteristics further north in the over
North TX into the Piney Woods Region of LA. Estimated hourly
rainfall rates varied somewhat within this activity, between
1.5-2"/hr (west of Lake Charles) and 3"/hr (near Shreveport).

This uptick in coverage and intensity is likely due to the
activity realizing a NW-SE oriented instability axis characterized
by 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2-2.3" PWATS, and 20-30 kts of
southwesterly effective shear amid a variety of convergence
boundaries analyzed across the region.

Going forward, expect training and repeating of cells to drive
scattered instances of flash flooding this afternoon and evening.
Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR maintain the best handle on the
general placement and structure of the ongoing activity, and
suggest additional rainfall totals of 2-5" can be expected.
Locally considerable flash flooding impacts cannot be ruled out
over areas which saw heavy rainfall earlier this morning.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-cARqypZkz9e3f5O0D3qEZqDVQmwcrIPTd9oAGPu9NHncpWNxbx1i_E0kQN5EzazxGkW= 7WjHDDAeBI9jgTXQLHRo-2w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33509527 33309407 32699359 31489332 29889297=20
29369356 29499436 31069518 31549669 32269715=20
33129645=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112134
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-120315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0421
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
534 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112131Z - 120315Z

Summary...Slow moving storms atop portions of saturated soils are
expected to produce locally heavy rain in excess of 3-5 inches
over the next 3-6 hours for portions of central TX. Localized to
scattered flash flooding is expected to result.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery from GOES East showed a
south-north elongated mid to upper-level low over west-central TX
at 2115Z, slowly edging eastward. One of the embedded vorticity
maxima was located halfway between BPG and ABI and a small cluster
of slow moving thunderstorms has developed to its south and east.
A general decrease in low to mid-level cloud cover since 17Z has
helped with surface heating to the west of a broader shield of
cloud cover over eastern TX. SPC mesoanalysis data from 21Z showed
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg over western and central TX with patchy
but decreasing CIN along and west of I-35.

RAP forecasts show the mid to upper-level trough and embedded
vorticity maxima will slowly translate eastward over the next
several hours. Additional convective development is likely over
west-central TX in the short term, and over northern portions of
the Edwards Plateau into portions of the I-35 corridor south of
Forth Worth beyond sunset. While PWs are not as high as those over
east TX, they are still about 1.5 to 2.0 inches (via SPC
mesoanalysis) and slow cell movement of 10 kt or less beneath the
upper low will promote locally high rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr.

Heavy rain over the past 72 hours has increased soil moisture and
reduced FFG to less than 2.5 inches in 3 hours for many locations.
While the coverage of slow moving rain rates should remain
localized to scattered (at best), a fairly broad region of central
TX will be under threat of localized flash flooding with 2 to
3-hour totals of 3 to 5 inches possible through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8DY1QUIkwGtfiWPwhIo6nk_rB7mBgFrNvxZnJl-CajmbjmT-CbydrISBr5Kv8TXYa7mI= cgbpiNR7yx5rI2ZIppSc60A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33939736 33759676 33419632 32749625 31639662=20
30459774 30219949 30620036 31230061 31620069=20
32140051 33099941 33669825 33829780=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120307
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0422
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1107 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120304Z - 120730Z

Summary...Areas of heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms are
likely to produce scattered areas of flash flooding across
portions of central TX through 07Z. The threat of flash flooding
is expected to increase toward the south with time and a few spots
of 3 to 6+ inches may lead to significant/considerable impacts.

Discussion...GOES East water vapor imagery showed the southern end
of a mid to upper-level low over west-central TX along the
northern end of the Edwards Plateau near the Colorado River at
0230Z. Radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms from the
Edwards Plateau, northward to I-20 and as far east as I-35. MRMS
hourly rainfall was topping out near near 4 inches just north of
Waco while other cells to the west of I-35 and near I-20 showed
peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. The environment as sampled by
the 00Z FWD RAOB and depicted on the 02Z SPC mesooanalysis showed
modest mid-level lapse rates of 6.2 C/km, tall/skinny CAPE with
500-1500 J/kg mixed layer instability and PWs that ranged from 1.7
to 1.9 inches across the region. The 00Z FWD sounding also showed
a wet-bulb zero height of 12.6 kft, indicative of the potential
for warm rain processes.

Over the next 3-5 hours, the southern lobe of the mid-level low
will slowly edge east while 925-850 mb layer flow increases from
southern to eastern TX into the 20 to 30+ kt range. Slow moving
cells will continue across the region with the slowest motions
closest to the mid-level low/trough placement...west of the
Metroplex to just north of the Edwards Plateau. By 06Z (1 AM CDT),
the increasing magnitude of the low level flow and low level
convergence along its leading edge should allow for expanding
convective development to focus farther southtoward San Antonio
while slowly expanding east across the I-35 corridor. Cells will
show a mixture of slow movement, back-building/training and
merging which will be capable of 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall.

Given recent heavy rain and the expectation of localized
additional totals of 3 to 6+ inches through 07Z to 08Z, scattered
areas of flash flooding will be likely. 01Z and 02Z WoFS indicated
the greatest potential for 3+ inches of rain over the following 6
hours to be from near San Antonio, northward to just west of
Austin (50-80 percent probs). In addition, 90th percentile data
(reasonable worst case scenario) showed 10 to 12 inches of rain in
some of these same locations. While 10 to 12 inches of rain may be
a high bar to reach, even 50th percentile QPF values of 4-5 inches
from the WoFS is noteworthy. These rains may lead to locally significant/considerable flash flood impacts, especially given the
sensitive terrain of the TX Hill Country.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8YndtCGAs8KoCkAgOuZoFZR-gu-Fgd_InPfDR65XJRHG_XTfRp-j-Zl0TMax_ELjbBQb= oL9gywSBuQKOh6os3q1vc4A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33139750 32209651 30479643 29239715 28719821=20
28699924 29249992 30859989 32009901 32969858=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120758
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0423
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...TX Triangle region into the Middle and Upper TX
Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120755Z - 121300Z

Summary...Localized hourly rainfall totals as high as 3-4"
expected to continue into mid-morning. Numerous instances of flash
flooding are likely (some life threatening to locally extreme)
with additional localized totals of 6"+ expected (with 8"+ amounts
possible).

Discussion...Clusters of thunderstorms are in the process of
growing upscale into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) across
western portions of the TX Triangle region, from the San Antonio
area northeastward to near Waco. Storms are generally organizing
linearly along the southern and eastern periphery of the
established cold pool, where instability is greatest (1000-3000
J/kg of SBCAPE) with increasing low-level moisture transport (in
association with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet with
925mb winds of 25-30 kts from the SSE). PWs have also increased to
a very impressive 1.9-2.3 inches, nearing daily max record levels
(using CRP sounding climatology as a proxy). Localized hourly
rainfall totals are estimated to be as high as 3-4" (per MRMS), a
resulting of training (as deep layer steering flow is oriented
nearly parallel to the cold pool boundary, due to the favorable
placement of a mid-upper level low) and warm rain processes
dominating (with wet bulb zero heights around ~13k feet). Storms
training from west-to-east (along the southern edge of the cold
pool) in the vicinity of San Antonio are particularly concerning,
given the flooding sensitivities of the metro area. Meanwhile, a
separate cluster of thunderstorms are growing in strength and
coverage near the Middle TX Coast (where PWs are maximized) due to
the strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air
advection/isentropic ascent.

Storms should only continue to organize this morning, given the
very favorable aforementioned environment (with differential
divergence only increasing further over the next several hours).
Hi-res models (both the 00z HREF and experimental 18z REFS
ensembles) are in excellent agreement with both the expected
magnitudes and placement of QPF with relatively high probabilities
(40-60%) for both localized 5" exceedance (40-km neighborhood) and
1" exceedance overlap (10-100 km Ensemble Agreement Scale). This
corresponds with high FFG exceedance probabilities (up to 60-70%)
and a decent chance (up to 25-35%) of locally exceeding 100-yr
ARIs. Given this strong ensemble signal, localized 6"+ totals are
expected (and it is notable that hourly HRRR/RRFS runs have been
fairly consistent in depicting localized 8"+ totals, primarily
between the Corpus Christi and Houston metros where repeating
heavy rainfall is most likely). Numerous instances of flash
flooding are likely, some of which are expected to be life
threatening. Given the potential for 100-yr ARI exceedance,
extreme instances of localized flash flooding are possible (with
areas that do not typically flood at risk of experiencing flash
flooding).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6DZOWV8JTor6182-ZxpoyfYaoFai91QBvupthK3DBZ1DNtJWghSvIB1PH6QwNHseSWq2= nCBg5hmAlLFXqBUNJ3MydBY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32049643 31979551 31329461 29789487 29099531=20
28689613 28389719 28619862 29179932 29799937=20
30279846 30989817 31929747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121301
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121802-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0424
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...South-Central TX into the TX Piney Woods region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121300Z - 121802Z

Summary...Flash flooding (some of which could be life threatening)
will continue this morning as training thunderstorms containing
localized hourly rainfall rates of 3-4" an hour continue.

Discussion...An axis of training thunderstorms containing
localized 3-4" an hour rainfall rates continues over South-Central
TX along a well defined cold pool. Over the last 12 hours, these
cells have resulted in prolific heavy rainfall amounts across the
area, with localized amounts of 7-10" observed across
South-Central TX into the Central TX Coastline. As highlighted in
MPD 423, inflow characterized by 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, minimal
CIN, 2-2.3" PWATs will continue to foster new cells upwind of the
complex, which will train given the parallel orientation of the
steering flow to the cold pool.

As such, additional flash flooding is expected to continue through
this morning and afternoon. Of note is that the HRRR and RRFS --
which are handling the ongoing activity the best -- are around 1-2
hours too slow with propagating the cold pool southward compared
to radar observations, which could suggest the upper-end of their
forecast rainfall amounts through 18z (7-8") are overdone.
However, in light of ongoing impacts and potential for extreme
3-4" hour rainfall rates, any additional rainfall will quickly
translate to runoff. Life threatening flash flooding impacts
remain possible atop areas hit hard earlier today, and over
sensitive urban areas.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__aj6jkVosj9m68XnO4KacRb0YmHUwUXRBlutGB_0mVEDydz3T5CKOUtxbmqM4UCF9Mf= XwAEkYe1oJwbzBpnrhBBWpA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31469471 30969391 29989405 29319464 28669558=20
28159725 28409872 28879936 29309932 29379876=20
29419765 29729705 30389676 31029624 31389561=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122325
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0425
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...northeastern SD into southwestern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122323Z - 130400Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding may occur over northeastern
portions of SD into southwestern MN through 04Z. Rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr and localized totals of 2-3 inches are possible.

Discussion...Recent radar imagery through 23Z showed the recent
intensification of a thunderstorm over northern Spink County
(south of Aberdeen) along with scattered showers extending from
the eastern ND/SD border into central MN. These cells were
elevated, located north of a wavy quasi-stationary front that
extended westward into eastern SD, then southwestward into
northwestern NE. Lift in advance of a 700-500 mb shortwave trough
(extending from northeastern MT into western SD) and advection of
low level moisture via a 20-25 kt 850 mb jet has allowed for an
increase in MUCAPE north of the front, aiding in the recent
intensification.

850 mb winds are forecast to further strengthen a bit to near 30
kt by 03Z from the eastern SD/NE border and northward to the
front, according to recent RAP forecasts, allowing for potential
upstream thunderstorm development. While instability will likely
remain a modest 500-1000 J/kg over northeastern SD via short term
HRRR/RAP forecasts, an observed GPS PW just east of the northern
SD/MN border was 1.5 inches at 22Z, near the climatological max at
ABR for mid-June. The mean steering flow of cells is expected to
be from the WSW to W, roughly parallel to the frontal boundary to
the south, which will support repeating rounds of heavy rain from
west to east. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr may occur at times and
there will be the potential for 2-3 inches of rain through 04Z.

This rain may overlap with locally hydrologically sensitive
regions, including urban centers and portions of Brown and
Marshall counties, which received locally heavy rain (up to 4
inches) earlier today. Localized flash flooding could result from
parts of northeastern SD into far southwestern MN through 04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77HmyaFbLjzuYrBy_F49UY2RfE7-0A4T8l6jh-1VIIl5o8lWbiugMoVq4hnScUlbA41D= MWbMjxF4ZU_-LNuFLolp_Fw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45989717 45839581 45499528 44929549 44709668=20
44639830 44569985 44980071 45630060 45959913=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130701
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-131200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0426
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...south-central MN and some surrounding portions of
far northeast SD, southeast ND, and western WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130700Z - 131200Z

Summary...Bands of slow moving heavy rainfall with localized
hourly totals of 1-2" may result in 5"+ totals through 7am CDT.
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely (and
may be locally significant).

Discussion...Bands of slow moving heavy rainfall are taking shape
early this morning across portions of far northeastern SD and
south-central MN, in response to strengthening isentropic ascent
(concentrated on 295-300K surface) amid veering low-level (925-850
mb) flow. While the low-level jet is actually expected to weaken a
bit over the next several hours (from 30-35 kts to 25-30 kts), the
moisture transport (and more importantly the resulting isentropic
ascent) will conversely become stronger and more pronounced (as
the flow orients perpendicular to the isobars on the 300K
isentropic surface). The resulting conditional symmetric
instability (CSI) is driving the convective heavy rainfall threat
this morning (even though MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg is underselling
the threat) with anomalously high wet bulb zero heights (~11k
feet), 850 mb mixing ratios (~10 g/kg), and precipitable water
(~1.5") all near the 90th percentile (per MPX sounding
climatology).

Hi-res CAMs have so far struggled to appropriately model what is
ongoing, as impressive slow moving bands of heavy rainfall are
indicated to be producing 15-min totals nearing 1" and hourly
totals approaching 2" (per MRMS estimates). While modest low-level
flow is producing these bands, the flow aloft within the layer of
skinny CAPE from 700-500 mb is from the west at only about 10-20
kts. These slow moving heavy rainfall bands will tend to train
form west-to-east (while gradually lifting north a bit), and while
some of the CAMs do hint at localized 2" hourly totals (primarily
the ARW2 and NAM-nest) they're likely underestimating the scale of
the potential (given ongoing observational trends, which are
occurring meaningfully south and east of the main model signal).
Even still, the post-processed statistical data from the 00z HREF
is hinting at the relative high-end potential from this event with
40-km neighborhood 6-hr probs for 3" and 5" exceedance of 25-45%
and 5-15%, respectively. This corresponds with relatively high
odds of 6-hr FFG exceedance (25-35%), as well as a chance (20-40%)
of 10-yr ARI exceedance and a slight chance (up to 10%) for 100-yr
ARI exceedance. Overall the HREF solutions are considered to be
underestimating the threat, and therefore isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are considered likely (and may be
locally significant, given that training 1-2"/hr rainfall rates
may result in localized 3-6 hour totals of 5"+).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9GeO2Y_p77Jj9o2SbODDn2-XHhR37R_OH3EPWgoHh1cIuV3EhMFJSjsO1IGuvGB0qT-J= TYOT9z_2w22QGOGiRuATaDY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...BIS...DLH...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46489497 46459367 46079266 45309223 44499244=20
44089316 43979412 44399572 45099743 45719854=20
46389765 46459629=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131117
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-131716-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0427
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...southern Louisiana, far southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131116Z - 131716Z

Summary...A cluster of slow-moving storms have produced estimated
4-6 inch rainfall totals near Lafayette, Louisiana this morning.=20
This cluster is expected to very slowly evolve within a very
unstable airmass, posing a risk for flash flooding through
17Z/noon CDT.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have managed to evolve into a
persistent, slow-moving cluster near Lafayette this morning. The
storms are embedded in deep south-southwesterly steering flow of
around 20-25 knots, but have managed to backbuild locally due to
1) confluent 850mb wind fields evident via objective analyses, 2)
a weak surface boundary extending from near Galveston, TX
east-northeastward through Lafayette to near Hammond, LA, and 3)
strong instability/weak inhibition along and south of that subtle
boundary. Impressive moisture/instability content within the
pre-convective airmass (2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW values) were
contributing to impressive local rain rates exceeding 2.5
inches/hr at times. With 4-6 inches of rain having already
fallen, some impacts are likely with the ongoing activity in the
short term.

Through 17Z/noon CDT, the reinforcement of a surface/outflow
boundary near the convection (due to cold pool formation) will
likely enable continued development and training of cells. Some
propagation of this cluster is expected, and both westward and
eastward development of storms toward areas near Lake Charles and
near/south of Baton Rouge can be expected. Another 3-5 inches of
rainfall can be expected beneath the heavier, slower-moving
thunderstorm bands as well. Locally higher amounts cannot be
ruled out in a few spots.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8brUbtbNUCQexOiyQDMY6PJWizYuk4hFh28TcfdfEDKSg8D2K1Jtq_Jy87nnWU4uA2ZX= aECCbvGA9w68lP9Pz_sOiSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30509132 30289060 29989016 29599001 29229034=20
29169115 29539237 29659388 29469442 29779450=20
30179381 30479252=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131709
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-132137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...far southwest Louisiana, southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131707Z - 132137Z

Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible for the
next 2-4 hours (through 21Z) as slow-moving storms produce 1-3
inch/hr rain rates across the discussion area.

Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest across
areas near Beaumont and Lake Charles over the past couple hours.=20
These storms are in a weakly sheared environment, with slow
movement amid 2 inch PW values and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE promoting
rain rates of 1-2.5 inches/hr per MRMS. Storms are focused along
a remnant outflow boundary extending from west-southwest to
east-northeast across the region and a newer, stronger outflow
boundary from south-central Louisiana that was currently near Lake
Charles and propagating westward. These outflow boundaries will
continue to encourage deep moist convection over the next 2-4
hours over wet/sensitive ground conditions from prior rainfall
over the past 48 hours. 2-2.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds are likely
to be exceeded at times in this regime, and additional impacts to
metro areas in the discussion area (i.e., Lake Charles, Beaumont,
and eventually Houston) cannot be ruled out.

At some point beyond 21Z/4p CDT, the expectation is that
widespread convective overturning may temper the extent and
intensity of convection along with resultant rain rates. Storms
will mainly be outflow dominant given the weak low-level and deep
shear across the discussion area. Between no

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!80gK5CFsjzotVDDdFn8D2Rins2BSrPtr11c-IPaZKv_A4fvVYQKUAG9nn1nUANK6ATxS= heW7p2APPVoX0sepZe4_Uvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31109459 31089369 30649264 30059260 29659409=20
29089601 29369649 30109621 30639552=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131730
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-132137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...far southwest Louisiana, southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131707Z - 132137Z

Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible for the
next 2-4 hours (through 21Z) as slow-moving storms produce 1-3
inch/hr rain rates across the discussion area.

Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest across
areas near Beaumont and Lake Charles over the past couple hours.=20
These storms are in a weakly sheared environment, with slow
movement amid 2 inch PW values and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE promoting
rain rates of 1-2.5 inches/hr per MRMS. Storms are focused along
a remnant outflow boundary extending from west-southwest to
east-northeast across the region and a newer, stronger outflow
boundary from south-central Louisiana convection that was
currently near Lake Charles and propagating westward. These
outflow boundaries will continue to encourage deep moist
convection over the next 2-4 hours over wet/sensitive ground
conditions from prior rainfall over the past 48 hours. 2-2.5
inch/hr FFG thresholds are likely to be exceeded at times in this
regime, and additional impacts to metro areas in the discussion
area (i.e., Lake Charles, Beaumont, and eventually Houston) cannot
be ruled out.

At some point beyond 21Z/4p CDT, the expectation is that
widespread convective overturning may temper the extent and
intensity of convection along with resultant rain rates. Storms
will mainly be outflow dominant given the weak low-level and deep
shear across the discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4NA3V57CdURoU6XpbOVafLG8lyBrHSX9lipqQZqJfcO7ZWzG0AUpCFjUFx12gyOCBcC2= 7pKoF1EN3kmMjh9hPOIskg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31109459 31089369 30649264 30059260 29659409=20
29089601 29369649 30109621 30639552=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140030
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-140559-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0429
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians....Southern DelMarVa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140029Z - 140559Z

Summary...Periods of cell training along an increasingly defined
cold pool should maintain the threat of scattered flash flooding
through this evening.

Discussion...Radar depicts an west-east axis of showers and
thunderstorms growing upscale along an increasingly defined cold
pool bisecting Central Virginia. Recent single source and MRMS
hourly rainfall estimates show increasing rainfall efficiency
within the most robust convective cores -- with localized 2-3" an
hour rates noted over the last 30 minutes.

Inflow characterized by 1.7-2.1" PWATs, 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
(with minimal CIN), and deep warm cloud layers of 13,000-14,000
feet, and 20-25 kts of effective shear will support additional
convective clusters which could train/repeat given the parallel
orientation of the steering flow to the emerging cold pool.

Through 6z, the 18z HREF (supported by recent runs of the HRRR and
RRFS) suggest the main corrior of concern will remain over
North-Central Virginia. Probabilities of 6 hour QPF exceeding the
10-100 year ARI in this region range from 20-30% and 10-25%,
respectively. Additional scattered instances of flash flooding
remain possible, some of which could be locally considerable.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7_9Af7xbdhiiX_t57DrbKE_Ucp1kkX7SM1qs9rix-DGVcyHJ3H5Xcovhyg8hv0ba5oFU= rHwTqm5eSaQzI7FtzDRfk1c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38747781 38657683 38237636 37597677 37377741=20
37327913 37728063 38278071 38498024 38487892=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140302
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-140900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0430
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Central AR into northwest MS and southwest TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140300Z - 140900Z

Summary...Localized hourly totals of 1-2" expected to continue
through the overnight hours, and training/repeating elements may
lead to additional localized totals of 2-4" (on top of areas that
have already seen as much as 2-4" in recent hours). Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...A deep layer (sfc-250 mb) cyclone is nearly
stationary this evening over MO/IL, with deep layer cyclonic flow
organizing bands of showers and thunderstorms along the southern
periphery of the circulation. While heavy rainfall has generally
been progressive within 20-30 kts of steering flow (850-300 mb),
recent convective initiation to the southwest and south of the low
center (concentrated mostly across northwestern and central AR) is
allowing for localized elements of west-to-east training. This is
resulting in localized hourly totals of up to 1-2" (with the
highest totals confined just to the southwest of Memphis at the
time of writing), per MRMS estimates. Low-level moisture transport
is already on the rise in this area (mainly at 850 mb from the
WSW), and should only become more robust closer to the surface
over the next 3-6 hours (with strengthening isentropic upglide
anticipated along the 300K surface as winds near 925 mb veer to
the WSW and increase from 10-20 kts to 20-25 kts). In addition,
the mesoscale environment is characterized by precipitable water
values of 1.6-1.8" (and expected to increase to 2.0"+, between the
90th percentile and max moving average per LZK sounding
climatology), ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear
of 25-35 kts.

While the steering flow should continue to favor localized
training and repeating of convection, upwind propagation vectors
are also weak and variable in the vicinity of east-central AR into
northwest MS and southwest TN. This is precisely where localized
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) exceedance is most likely to occur, as
3-6 hour FFGs are as low as 1.5-2.5" (and in reality are likely
even lower now, as this guidance applies to 00z and localized 2-4"
totals have occurred since then with some local FLASH CREST unit
streamflow response suggesting some minor flood impacts already
ongoing). Looking ahead to the next 3-6 hours, additional heavy
rainfall is expected along the base of the aforementioned deep
low, with impacts most likely from Little Rock to Memphis and
surroundings. Recent HRRR runs are in good agreement with this
corridor, suggesting additional localized totals of 2-4" are
possible (with continued potential for hourly totals up to 1-2").
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Yz3QWHgHl8yBgvhFJmwIaKWJ0qxpj3iJlH-l0SDTdlngN8Fjm5OriqreI__9qXNVtfm= Vp1F9_itIZI_38LuWxyjYIA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35608908 34848878 34278981 34429176 35039300=20
35379313 35579255 35499078=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140957
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-141500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0431
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...south-central KS into north-central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140955Z - 141500Z

Summary...Additional localized totals of 2-5" may result in
isolated to scattered flash flooding through mid-morning.

Discussion...A maturing MCS is forward propagating
south-southeastward across portions of eastern KS this morning,
producing hourly totals as high as 2.0-2.5" (with the help of
convective initiation out ahead of the system). Farther south into north-central OK, convection has managed to initiate within a
moderately capped environment (CIN 75-150 J/kg) due to weak
moisture convergence along a quasi-stationary front. These storms
are nearly stationary within weak steering flow, producing
impressive localized hourly totals of up to 2-3". The mesoscale
environment downstream of the MCS and in the vicinity of the OK
storms is characterized by SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, precipitable
water values of 1.6-1.8" (above the 90th percentile and near the
max moving average, per OUN sounding climatology), and effective
bulk shear of 15-20 kts.

Although shear should be a somewhat limiting factor for storm
organization, the mature MCS and associated MCV will likely
continue to be sufficient forcing for continued longevity, given
observational trends (despite MCS maintenance values of only
20-40%, largely owing to the lack of shear and deep layer mean
flow). CAMs are somewhat supportive of additional rainfall (while
largely struggling with the OK convective initiation, in
particular), as 06z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 3-hr
and 6-hr FFG exceedance are around 15-25% (thru 15z). Additional
localized totals of 2-5" are possible, and much of that is likely
to fall within a period of only 1-2 hours.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-EyPxtMb02-tfX3vI-GrGhECHwGv1qVVOS1xOqmQs1r62_TM2QRzjSbqKtnHM2KrdlwP= hbJ4ov8oVxfa1hVCo0dc5VQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39499929 39059834 38449758 37739689 36769642=20
36129658 35469786 35519883 36539919 37410063=20
37950082 38370048 39469980=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141310
FFGMPD
TXZ000-141708-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0432
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141308Z - 141708Z

Summary...A mesoscale complex has organized near Galveston and
continues to propagate slowly westward toward areas near/south of
Houston. These trends should continue over the next 2-4 hours or
so, posing an isolated flash flood risk through 17Z/noon CDT today.

Discussion..Convection that had initially formed over along and
just offshore of the Texas coast has matured and formed a
westward-moving cold pool that currently extends from near
Downtown Houston southward to Lake Jackson. The storms are
ingesting air from a very buoyant, weakly capped pre-convective
environment (3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW). This moisture-rich
environment and weak shear has fostered development of
slow-moving, outflow dominant convection to materialize with spots
of 2 inch/hr rain rates recently observed near Galveston and
League City.

Models/observations suggest that the westward-moving outflow
associated with this complex will be the primary driver of any
new/sustained convective development over the next 2-4 hours.=20
This new development - along with areas/spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates should gradually develop westward and northwestward into
additional inland parts of southeast Texas. The combination of
wet soils from recent rainfall and urbanized/sensitive areas near
Houston Metro suggest that flash flash flooding could occur on an
isolated basis through the morning as convection evolves.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5M8thc-9DB8NgB6aCJ9ZMPwCmdV4KZC9i2KU6umfjdXrayixQXtZgyw8Vhawxm3tPP6V= xK-ej0evGK5uVnvu1-xkq1Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30959483 30359384 29629406 28789549 28989649=20
29759671 30389640 30799587=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141747
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0433
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma through
central/southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141746Z - 142300Z

Summary...An intensifying convective complex over eastern Oklahoma
will sweep through the discussion area and pose a risk of areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates are expected to
cause localized/isolated flash flood issues through 23Z/6p CDT.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a linear MCS has
materialized over eastern Oklahoma from near Muskogee to near Ada.
Cells within this complex were moving east-southeastward at
approximately 25-30 knots, which has mostly kept peak rain rates
at around 1-2 inches/hr (just shy of FFG thresholds) so far this
afternoon.

As storms migrate downstream through the afternoon and early
evening, a few considerations for increasing flash flood potential
exist, including: 1) deepening convection ahead of the complex,
which should allow for a few areas of mergers to prolong/increase
rain rates above 2 inches/hr and 2) the orientation of the complex
itself - which may allow for localized training on occasion. FFG
thresholds should be breached in a few areas of this complex moves
through, with low-lying/sensitive areas of particular concern for
flash flooding.

Over time, a few of these storms may reach areas just north/east
of Little Rock that experienced 3-5 inch rainfall totals just a
few hours ago. These areas may also be locally sensitive and
prone to flooding.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9G_BsSIDoLxJhPZvUM2AVsLtHQKMlkdfbVjGW2Y7ZxpnETDMTbdPkk_lgO0wbWLHQRxQ= wR-NO6I2WyRbqVH8_rCudB8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36119511 36059402 35539176 34769128 33739158=20
32959393 33609641 34339741 35069773 35569601=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141832
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0434
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141830Z - 150030Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates will likely support isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding going through the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with area
radars are showing a continued expansion of locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms across large areas of the OH Valley, but with a
bit more of a focus along a quasi-stationary frontal zone that is
draped across the region.

MLCAPE values have risen to as high as 1500 J/kg along and just
south of this front extending from southeast IL through southern
IN. Shear parameters are minimal, but the atmosphere is very moist
with PWs of 1.6 to 1.8+ inches, and so the convective cells are
capable of producing very high hourly and sub-hourly rainfall
rates.

The convection over the next few hours should generally continue
to expand given a combination of the diurnal heating
cycle/boundary layer instability, and also the slow approach of a
wave of low pressure which is gradually traversing the front from
the west. Cyclonic low-level flow into the aforementioned front
should promote an environment where convection is at least
relatively focused along and near this boundary. However, the
steering flow is very weak with the 850/300 mb layer mean flow
generally near or under 10 kts.

This will promote slow cell-motions, and with the high moisture
profiles in place, some convective cells may be capable of
producing as much as 1.5+ inches in 30 minutes. Some spotty storm
totals of as much as 2 to 4+ inches will be possible going through
early this evening. The 12Z HREF and the 06Z REFS both depict
rather elevated probabilities (locally 40 to 50+ percent) for
seeing the 3-hour FFG exceeded across especially central/southern
IN and parts of west-central OH given the moist antecedent
conditions, and this area in particular may see notable concerns
for flash flooding going through early this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9JncnfDaR554Ytuw3YH9d_QzOUpBLRPoQ0NYmpuq_QgbwPWIy3fQLmbXZ_sBueXXpHro= dRUrS7r6hYWf6lUhB30B6RU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40528323 40048239 39208261 38628387 37978618=20
37308782 37438874 38108915 38828893 39508787=20
40188558=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141942
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0435
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley...Central
Appalachians...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141940Z - 150140Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of flash flooding are expected to occur
this afternoon and into the evening as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop and expand in coverage. Locally significant
urban flash flooding impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary
front draped across the Mid-Atlantic region and stretching back up
across the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and the
upper OH Valley. A substantial amount of moisture is in place
along this front with PWs in general across the region running
nearly 2 standard deviations above normal.

In fact, the 12Z RAOB data from KPIT and KIAD showed very moist
soundings with PWs of 1.79" and 2.01" respectively. Tall, skinny
CAPE profiles were noted as well, and thus the environment is
conducive for highly efficient rainfall processes that could yield
extreme rainfall rates as convection develops and expands in
coverage over the next several hours. The airmass along and
adjacent to the front continues to destabilize with the diurnal
heating cycle, and MLCAPE values have risen to as much as 1000 to
1500 J/kg on the warm side of the front across central WV and also
across central to southeast VA.

The increasingly concentrated axis of moisture and instability
along and near the front, along with areas of locally more focused
surface convergence should favor the regional development and
expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next several
hours. Some modest shear profiles and upper-jet aided
ascent/divergence over the region should also facilitate this
evolution with eventually broken clusters of convection
materializing.

Near-term convective development over the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians is expected with the aid of the front and
also orographic ascent. However, by late this afternoon and this
evening, the front itself from the MD/WV Panhandles on down
through northern/central VA and eventually the Tidewater/Hampton
Roads area of southeast VA should become quite active with
convection impacting these areas.

Rainfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger
storms given the moist/efficient environment that is in place, and
some localized storm totals of 3 to 5+ inches are going to be
possible given the relatively slow cell-motions that are expected.

A combination of urban sensitivities and moist antecedent
conditions in general will combine with the additional rainfall
potential to support a notable threat of flash flooding going into
the evening hours with at least scattered areas of flash flooding
likely. Locally significant urban flash flooding impacts will also
be possible if these heavier rains focus into the urban corridors.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ZdF_BXZC-jracFekueYoO9JkMdHqj64jPXNE2vLfY8qIpgt_iSS3p16xpQ-62hCZ9or= Cbc1e65bAH6nU7jykWE8FoU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...GSP...LWX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40847927 40557796 39957700 38917648 36987556=20
36267629 36207854 35917986 35748123 36088172=20
36988074 37918036 38638084 39678195 40568123=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142144
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-150043-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0436
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...New Orleans Metropolitan Area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142143Z - 150043Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting the broader
New Orleans metropolitan area over the next few hours will
continue to support an urban flash flood threat into the early
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms moving into the New Orleans metropolitan
area including adjacent suburbia. The activity is focusing along
the leading edge of an outflow boundary while interacting with a
very moist and unstable airmass pooled across southeast LA.

MLCAPE values of as much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place with
PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. This suggests very high rainfall rate
potential with these storms with potentially 1.5 inches of rain in
as little as 30 minutes. Over the next few hours, slow
cell-motions may support some spotty totals of 2 to 4+ inches.

The activity may last into at least the early evening hours based
on the latest HRRR and RRFS guidance, and given the urban
sensitivities around New Orleans, these rains may result in
additional areas of urban flash flooding heading through the early
evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AjeOYokZNcdYcJYvTHWzjBxEVMybvOpr2D-G2Kc7z39S4JR4hRXr2MRtCySQKr3qrlR= OUsTwSDuKpijSakRtkt_Ea0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30579003 30408947 29748979 29629064 29999098=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142352
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS Valley and the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142350Z - 150300Z

SUMMARY...Multiple bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the next few hours across portions of the Lower MS
Valley and Mid-South from colliding outflow boundaries. A few
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible this evening
as a result.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar and surface data shows elongated bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting areas of the Lower MS Valley and the
Mid-South as convection continues to develop and locally expand in
coverage as a result of colliding outflow boundaries.

Areas that have not seen much in the way of convective overturning
continue to be quite moist and unstable, with MLCAPE values as
high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PWs near 2 inches. This is
especially the case over northern MS and some parts of northern AL
where the low-level flow is also rather convergent given the
proximity of low pressure farther north over the Lower OH Valley.

Expect heavy showers and thunderstorms to persist for a few more
hours before the instability becomes sufficiently exhausted for
the activity to begin weakening. Rainfall rates in the short-term
may reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with some spotty totals of 3 to
4+ inches where any cell-training occurs. Radar does show some
cell-training occurring right now across areas of northern MS and
northwest AL. This may foster a few isolated areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_aygwZKEUQDi2lWciSkRwiM81719tnQGNxzH6LpTDTZVhG8UNvyL6slKlZ9rBdF7FUHH= yOcagm4zrLtMjFtP3xtE32w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34728706 34558587 34098583 33588679 33228920=20
32809344 32969464 33489445 34139182 34518907=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150134
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150632-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0438
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley...Central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150132Z - 150632Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of slow-moving showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop and locally
persist into a portion of the overnight period. Given the high
rainfall rate potential and slow cell-motions, additional
scattered areas of flash flooding are expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary
front still draped across the Mid-Atlantic region and stretching
back up across the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and
the upper OH Valley. 00Z RAOB data and the latest RAP analysis
shows a substantial amount of moisture still remaining in place
with PWs locally over 1.75 inches and with a moderate amount of
instability pooled along the front with MLCAPE values of near 1500
J/kg.

Areas of central to northern VA are generally the most unstable,
and there are pockets of locally strong low-level convergence near
the front that should help maintain the ongoing convective threat
across the region for a few more hours. Local orographics near the
Blue Ridge and also deeper back into the high terrain of the
central Appalachians will also facilitate areas of ascent for
convection to redevelop and locally persist.

Expect areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms to still be
capable of producing rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour, and
the slow cell-motions may yield some additional localized totals
of 3 to 4+ inches. The most recent HRRR/RRFS guidance generally
supports this.

Given the additional rainfall potential and moist antecedent
conditions overall, there should tend to be scattered areas of
additional flash flooding going through the remainder of the
evening and a part of the overnight period. This will include a
localized urban flash flood concern as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!41lsI1pVeWgxcenTmksVQkJa-Gx7jUYJ3WmjT5keJQ2IJzo7oQv4M3UUkDy6rMYebUVi= tgXqlfuhFeYSaH9B8JzVrwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40678047 40567966 39947837 38797727 38387668=20
38077618 37737574 37427585 37347631 37577803=20
38087958 38778059 39858121 40338116=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150338
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-150940-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0439
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...much of north-central and northeast OK and
portions of far south-central and southeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150340Z - 150940Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely, driven
by 3-6 hour rainfall totals of 3-6" (with the potential for
localized 6"+ totals over portions of north-central OK).

Discussion...Convection has initiated and gradually proliferated
over the past few hours over portions of north-central OK and far
south-central and southeast KS, in advance of a slow moving
shortwave/remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). The region is
situated within an area of favorable northwest flow aloft, and the shortwave/MCV is providing 30-40 kts worth of deep layer (0-6 km)
shear for convective organization and storm longevity. A
substantial gradient of ML CAPE (500-3500 J/kg) is also situated
over the area, paralleling a quasi-stationary surface boundary
(quite evident in the surface thetaE gradient) that is draped from
NNW to SSE from north-central OK southward to southeast OK.
Tropospheric moisture content remains very highly anomalous,
ranging from 1.7-2.1" (near the max moving average, per OUN
sounding climatology). This is supporting highly efficient
instantaneous rainfall rates of up to 3-5"/hr (per MRMS
estimates), due to wet bulb zero heights around 13k-14k feet (also
near the max moving average, per OUN sounding climatology). This
is already allowing for localized hourly totals of 1-2" with
ongoing convection (with modest cell motions of 10-20 kts), but
these hourly totals could start to approach 3-4" as convection
begins to backbuild towards the northwest. This backbuilding will
be facilitated by a strengthening, veering low-level jet (LLJ),
resulting in idealized isentropic lift near the 305K surface
(along with warm air advection and increasing ML CAPE through the
overnight hours).

Hi-res CAMs are overall in quite good agreement concerning the
convective evolution and resulting QPF overnight, suggesting
localized 3-6" totals (and possibly even exceeding 6" in an
isolated spot or two in north-central OK). While totals in this
range may only meet or slightly exceed 6-hr Flash Flood Guidance
(FFG), much of this QPF is likely to fall within a 3-hr period
(per 00z HREF 40-km neighborhood 3"/3-hr exceedance probabilities
of 20-50% between 06-09z). Between the 3-hr and 6-hr expected
totals, probabilities of exceeding FFGs (per the HREF 40-km
neighborhood exceedance probs) are between 30-60%. While it is
likely that the most extreme totals will stay north of OKC and
west of Tulsa (mitigating the impacts to large population
centers), localized 5" exceedance (per HREF probs) is suggested to
be as high as 25-35% (corresponding to 10-15% odds of 100-yr ARI
exceedance). Experimental hourly RRFS runs since 18z have also
consistently depicted this potential, concerningly even suggesting
the potential for 7-9" localized totals. Given the very favorable
environment for training heavy rainfall and the consistent hi-res
signals, scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
likely (with localized considerable flash flooding possible).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8SNRHZXJXg0ay_q7bKUjXWdZzvQ81ZhZa_jfasKpx8q8VYKBmVVDcxyVfmdYEvxuwaOn= VuUyS1t-V0w2tEB3i08wGVc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37589811 37459759 37409711 37429654 37559594=20
37179535 36709488 36029476 35149593 35189727=20
35689819 36489874 37199885 37579864=20

=3D =3D =3D
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