ACUS11 KWNS 140253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140253=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-140430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Eastern MT into northeast WY and northwest SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...412...

Valid 140253Z - 140430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411, 412
continues.

SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may continue through
late evening. WW 411 has been extended to 10 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...An earlier intense supercell cluster has weakened
slightly across southeast MT, but likely remains severe as of 0245
UTC, and additional storms have intensified to its north and east.
This convection across southeast MT is ongoing within a moderately
unstable and favorably sheared environment, and will likely continue
to pose at least an isolated severe threat through late evening.=20

There is some indication that the ongoing storms across Rosebud
County may evolve into a larger cluster with time. While MLCINH will
generally increase with time and eastward extent, any organized
upscale growth could support a greater longevity of the severe wind
and hail threat into far southeast MT and perhaps northwest SD and
vicinity. WW 411 has been extended in time to 10 PM MDT, and trends
will be monitored regarding the potential for any downstream watch
issuance late tonight.=20

Farther north, a marginal supercell is ongoing across northeast MT,
to the northeast of Glasgow. Instability is weaker in this area, but
the KGGW VWP depicts a favorably veering wind profile, and an
isolated severe threat could accompany this cell before it
eventually weakens.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_exenVdpZ200htxIemtW6BxHpGPsFGTzmBangR4w77fsxz8tCAlenQds3g_KvnWkbFGATig_= mny9J3ZYxB1_0VDlYI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 45320704 47210659 48620749 48630679 48580602 46600471
45860363 44910295 44710431 44770558 44820626 45320704=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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