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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1279

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 14, 2025 01:24:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 140124
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140123=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-140300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1279
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0823 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of south-central/southeast MT into far
    northern WY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

    Valid 140123Z - 140300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado
    will continue east-southeastward this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A small but intense supercell cluster has evolved east
    of Billings, where moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear
    remain very supportive of organized convection. This cluster appears
    capable of producing a localized swath of severe gusts (potentially
    near/above 75 mph) as it moves east-southeastward this evening,
    along with large to very large hail (possibly wind-driven). A
    tornado also cannot be ruled out, given the presence of an embedded
    supercell structure and modestly favorable downstream low-level
    moisture and effective SRH.=20

    Farther southwest, a supercell has recently intensified along the
    trailing outflow south of Billings, with additional storm
    development possible closer to the MT/WY border with time. These
    cells developing near or just behind the trailing outflow could also
    pose at least an isolated severe threat through the evening.

    ..Dean.. 06/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7V89EX_BnoZN0ReSbYXnxiVbk9I0xTOmmz-us0Jy20CK07teqfKuhE67GnBh8Qh2gNE1SjM0r= lcGuIf6ZtHCHfFeQP0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 45530838 45810791 46530719 46530569 45800530 45390530
    44760566 44770749 44890844 44980920 45250931 45530838=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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