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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1275

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 13, 2025 20:44:14
    ACUS11 KWNS 132043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132043=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-132315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1275
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

    Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Maryland...and the D.C. Metro

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132043Z - 132315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm chances will continue to increase through
    early this evening across portions of northern VA and MD. A threat
    of localized damaging wind gusts exceeding 60 mph appears possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite and radar imagery suggest
    moist convection is beginning to deepen near a stationary boundary
    draped west to east across northern VA and central MD, with ongoing thunderstorms beginning to move eastward off the higher terrain.
    This boundary will remain a focus for thunderstorm development
    through early this evening as a very subtle mid-level shortwave
    perturbation approaches from the west, although thunderstorm
    coverage should generally remain at or below 40%. Daytime heating
    this afternoon, combined with a moist boundary layer, are
    contributing to a north-to-south axis of low to moderate instability
    nudging into the DC Metro. Although weaker flow aloft should limit
    overall thunderstorm organization, steep low-level lapse rates of
    8-8.5 C/km and DCAPE ~1300 J/kg could support an isolated damaging
    downburst or two. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a severe
    weather watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Barnes/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-P4W0tmhYvJaJahXhq60Mkl6c4_-zCxLrgwK31uY3wNO9G6j4ZlnISjsUZApwlsu9PUDYAmvF= t2mEYvA27HUoD1SrSc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39387892 38997918 38857930 38417956 38257933 38107891
    38117830 38157749 38157703 38027645 38017625 38197554
    38607549 39207615 39477745 39427876 39387892=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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