ACUS11 KWNS 131841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131841=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-132045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast MT...Eastern WY...Northeast CO...Far
Southwest SD...NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131841Z - 132045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to move off the high terrain
later this afternoon, continuing as bowing linear segments across
the central High Plains. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but
some isolated hail is possible as well.

DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations show temperatures range
from the mid 70s across northeastern WY into the upper 70s/low 80s
across southeast WY, the NE Panhandle, and northeast CO. Dewpoints
across the region are generally in the upper 50s/low 60s, with
mesoanalysis indicating that some convective inhibition remains in
place with these surface conditions. Continued heating is expected
throughout the afternoon with the modest low-level moisture
advection helping to offset some of the mixing, keeping dewpoints
mostly in the 50s. This will likely result in an erosion of the
remaining convective inhibition over the next several hours.

Around the same time as this destabilization, thunderstorms
currently ongoing over the higher terrain are expected to shift
eastward into the High Plains. Deep mixing across the High Plains,
steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support
initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow
interactions, with these clusters then spreading southeastward over
time. As such, strong gusts are the primary risk, although isolated
hail is possible with any robust embedded storms, as well as in the early-stage, more cellular development. Convective trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_wbDLFvPnRB-eLFYxTVO-KbfGaQz73hu8OhlhhbK_DdeW9QX2sfSHdQfs0_KYEPeGk4CB9c87= erYL7VgSf_TwAoyr9A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 39160525 42170617 42820650 43350683 44620701 45190762
45650689 45630576 45140484 44010382 41170277 39580323
38830398 39160525=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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