ACUS11 KWNS 122057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122057=20
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-122300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...central/eastern Pennsylvania...portions of northern
New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 122057Z - 122300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional risk for severe hail and wind possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is possible across portions of
central PA this afternoon near the southward moving cold front.
Visible satellite shows deepening cumulus across the area, with a
few echos now on radar, as MLCIN has eroded over the last few hours.
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is in place with deep layer shear around
40 kts. Should thunderstorm development occur along the front, a
supercell or two could be possible with potential for damaging wind
and hail. This threat will be monitored for watch potential.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ijWZO4fRU6gfOKkbIyllWtybTnsQdJcpk_VwoL0remSrn6R-uVc7I0fLjz1-1_L0Zenu223-= LCRHuBLBSsVIuSTbGM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 41467754 41707641 41607493 41127363 40597364 40047399
40547679 40937776 41467754=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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