ACUS11 KWNS 122020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122019=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-122215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...Northern NE...Southern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 122019Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are
possible across northern NE and southern SD this afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a modest
frontal boundary that extends from east-central SD through the NE
Panhandle to a low over southeast WY. Despite lingering mid-level
warm air, strong diurnal heating has largely eroded any convective
inhibition, and low-level convergence along the boundary has
fostered deepening cumulus (and at least one storm capable of
lightning). Expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase
within a narrow corridor along this boundary. Wind profiles, which
are characterized by low-level south-southeasterlies and
mid/upper-level westerlies, support the potential for supercells
initially capable of large hail. The thermodynamic profiles become
more conducive for strong outflow with western extent, and there is
some potential for outflow-dominant storms to progress southward (or
even southwestward) into more of north-central NE. Overall severe
coverage is expected to be high enough to merit watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4iUqV_r_rUlMalkEIE3P91308Te2ZV-_QXHI9NdARP8nnGLac6o_-OT2vXZh8CEDMypj6ipl-= tJOs9h_I_-j6N1GIgA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 42580293 43720169 44359949 44609767 43579769 41820093
41690248 42580293=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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