ACUS11 KWNS 101331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101331=20
SCZ000-101530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...South Carolina coastal plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101331Z - 101530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to localized damaging gusts (45-60 mph) may become
more prevalent this morning as 0-2 km lapse rates steepen.

DISCUSSION...An organized thunderstorm cluster over the Low Country
of South Carolina is moving northeast at 40 kt, slightly exceeding
the mean wind (reference 12 UTC Charleston raob; 35 kt), and likely
a result of cold pool driven processes. Surface observations along
the immediate coast have warmed to near 80 deg F with scattered to
broken clouds. Although weak buoyancy (600 J/kg MUCAPE) was noted
in the raob, modifying for current surface observations yields
around 1900 J/kg MUCAPE. Around 40-kt flow was observed on the
Charleston raob, and a recent strengthening in 1-3 km flow from 20
kt to 55 kt in this layer per KCLX VAD data, suggests appreciable
organization to the thunderstorm band. Some uptick in damaging
gusts may occur as additional heating occurs ahead of this activity,
but the overall magnitude and small spatial scale likely preclude a
severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

..Smith/Mosier.. 06/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!84ThyuoiVYdfVp8cU2YOjYI6nYo2Ndsnz5Pgelrwq5FId24uXySim_px8fyT85QBad4dQvEl7= QdXKTH_PNlkfRnuoow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 32878132 33448025 33787940 33707898 33347891 32138058
32158082 32878132=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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