ACUS03 KWNS 060732
SWODY3
SPC AC 060731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX
PANHANDLE TO WESTERN NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
SOUTHEAST VA TO SOUTH GA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very
large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central
States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will slowly move southeast across the
Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will drift east into
northwest ON, with an occluded cold front arcing south then
southwestward across the Mid-MS Valley to the south-central High
Plains by Sunday afternoon. A lower-amplitude mid-level trough, with
embedded MCVs from prior D2 convection, should shift east from the
eastern Midwest/OH Valley across the Appalachians by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D2 in the
wake of multiple MCSs, buoyancy should become large to extreme from
the TX Panhandle across the OK/TX Red River Valley by Sunday
afternoon. Guidance remains quite insistent on initial convective
development occurring as the trailing cold front pushes south into
the OK/TX Panhandles. With mid to upper wind profiles becoming west-northwesterly, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong
instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very
large hail. Consolidating outflows and a strengthening low-level jet
in the evening will yield increasingly widespread storms that should
congeal into a forward-propagating MCS. This type of setup is
conducive to potentially intense MCS development and destructive
wind gusts. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist
overnight perhaps reaching the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

...Southeast...
The degree of ongoing convection on Sunday morning yields low
confidence on how broad a region of scattered severe-storm potential
exists across the Southeast, amid enhanced mid-level westerlies
augmenting by remnant MCVs. The Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain and
adjacent Piedmont remains the best potential area for robust
boundary-layer heating. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe
hail should be the main hazards from afternoon storms.

...Ozarks to IL...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible along this portion
of the cold front, mainly focused from late afternoon to
mid-evening. The mid-level jetlet associated with the Upper Midwest
trough should impinge on the northern IL portion of the front where
instability is expected to be weak. Some mid-level flow enhancement
should overlap a progressively more unstable airmass to the
southwest, yielding potential for large hail and damaging wind.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061923
SWODY3
SPC AC 061922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to
evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are
possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere
in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal
Plain.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central
portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to
migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the
upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the
Southeast and Appalachians.

...Southern Plains...

Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will
result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX
and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across
the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest
OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich
boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a
corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle
southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with
elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings.

Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and
adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon.
Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a
low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is
favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant
severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e
gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very
large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any
cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east
toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model
trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further
east.

...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity...

The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario
will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is
forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher
dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS.
Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer
moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake
Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly
capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from
late afternoon into the evening.

...Southeast...

Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the
NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection
expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally
moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070730
SWODY3
SPC AC 070729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are
possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley
vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by
midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and
intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has
above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent
of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have
tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the
northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind
fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted
relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic
damaging-wind threat.

...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity...
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a
weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears
weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of
richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities
remain appropriate for this time frame.

...Southern High Plains to TX...
A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This
should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm
development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or
separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the
front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists
for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night.

..Grams.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071930
SWODY3
SPC AC 071930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds and
large hail are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the
Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will continue across the Great Lakes
region on Monday, with a cold front extending broadly from eastern
Ontario southwestward across the Ohio Valley and south into the
southern Plains. A secondary stationary front will be located near
central Virginia into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing across the Southern Plains with development expected along
the aforementioned boundaries in the north and east by the
afternoon.

...Southeastern US to the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the cold front in
the northeast and Ohio Valley and along the stationary front in VA
and the Carolinas Tuesday afternoon. Daytime heating and moistening
should yield a broad region of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg ahead of
the main cold front across the east. The primary risk with this
activity will be damaging wind. A few instances of large hail will
be possible, mainly along and near the cold front where stronger
deep layer shear will be available for organization. A southward
propagating MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the D3 period
across the lower Mississippi Valley. Some reintensification along
residual outflow will be possible through the late
morning/afternoon.

...Southern High Plains to TX...
Diurnal storm development in New Mexico will probably remain tied to
the higher terrain with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid
marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream
of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection
north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated
buoyancy will exist for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday
night.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN STATES AND MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday
evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to
south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough over ON/QC into the Great Lakes/Northeast
will dampen over the CONUS portion with weakly rising mid-level
heights. Minor mid-level impulses/MCVs may drift east in the weak
southern stream from the southern High Plains to the northwest Gulf
Coast. A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should reach northern CA
by early Wednesday.

...East Coast...
Severe potential should be confined to the late morning and
afternoon period ahead of a weakening cold front. Appreciable
Boundary-layer destabilization is expected to remain displaced south
of stronger deep-layer shear north. Where there may be lingering MCV
flow enhancement in the Mid-Atlantic region, nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should marginalize severe potential.
Decreasing deep-layer shear with southern extent along the Atlantic
coastal plain should foster a more localized damaging wind threat
compared to prior days.

...Southeast NM to south LA...
Relatively weak to modest deep-layer shear overlapping the generally west/east-oriented portion of prior large-scale outflow intrusion on
D1, may foster sporadic severe hail/wind on Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Guidance generally hints at greater thunderstorm coverage
from southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos and separately from southeast
TX to south LA.

...Lee of the MT Rockies...
As mid to upper-level flow becomes more westerly with moderate speed
shear, a couple lower-end/high-based supercells may develop off the
higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy
suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should
be the main threats.

..Grams.. 06/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081926
SWODY3
SPC AC 081924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST
COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday
evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to
south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies.

...East Coast...
Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through
the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level
southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this
troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded
shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great
Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this
shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the
Mid-Atlantic.

Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late
morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The
strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy,
somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there
should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms,
particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging
wind gusts are the primary risk.

...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill
Country...
A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from
west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A
convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central
TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this
vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a
vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface
boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could
provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However,
mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions
limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible
and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe
probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability
increases.

...Southeast NM and Far West TX...
Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over
the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture
advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints
to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep
mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late
afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with
lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along
the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental
conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail
initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is
uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this
outlook.

...Lee of the MT Rockies...
Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with
the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity
maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic
ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high
terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple
lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the
higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy
suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should
be the main threats.

..Mosier.. 06/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090731
SWODY3
SPC AC 090730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas.

...Northwest/Intermountain West...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern
Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its
attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather
confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late
afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest,
contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at
least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY.

...Corn Belt...
A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by
Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north
across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN
in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined
corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the
front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass
to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient
across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup
could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor
from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday.

...Southern/central TX...
A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced
mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and
behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large
spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the
synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk
mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of
greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear,
may be realized.

..Grams.. 06/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091928
SWODY3
SPC AC 091927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF TEXAS...AND THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over parts of
the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and Texas.

...Northwest/Intermountain West...
Latest guidance continues to depict a low-amplitude shortwave trough transitioning east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin on
Wednesday, reaching Wyoming Wednesday night. A belt of enhanced
mid-level westerlies will likely accompany this feature, with the
strongest winds aloft currently expected to be located over southern
Idaho and northern Utah around peak heating. Boundary-layer moisture
will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely Wednesday afternoon with a broad region of
at least low-probability severe wind/hail potential across parts of
Idaho/Utah into Montana/Wyoming.

...Upper Midwest/Corn Belt...
On the southern fringe of moderately strong low-amplitude
westerlies, a west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to
strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture
advects northward toward the region. A related and somewhat confined
corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the
front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass
to the north. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind
within a confined corridor centered from Wednesday late afternoon
into evening.

...Southern/central Texas...
A low-confidence forecast persists with some severe-weather
potential as a weak slow-moving upper low drifts across Texas, with
other uncertainties related to Tuesday's convection and effective
boundary placement. Will maintain a low-probability severe risk
mainly across the southern to central parts of Texas where pockets
of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear,
may be realized.

..Guyer.. 06/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100725
SWODY3
SPC AC 100725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday over
parts of the central to northern Plains and upper Mississippi
Valley. Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over parts of
Texas as well.

...Synopsis...
On Thursday, a progressive shortwave trough will move across the
northern Plains and into the upper MS Valley, with 40 to 50 kt mid
and upper level winds. A warm front will move north across eastern
SD, southern MN and WI, with mid 60s F dewpoints contributing to
modest destabilization. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop over
western NE during the afternoon and translate northeastward along a
boundary and into southern MN by Friday morning. A cold front will
develop behind this system, and push south into the central High
Plains late. Elsewhere, a weak upper low will remain over the OK/TX
area, with a moist air mass from TX into the Southeast.

...Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley...central High Plains...
Scattered storms are most likely to develop north of the warm front
during the day from eastern ND into central/northern MN, but these
are not expected to be severe. By peak heating, new development
will occur along the cold front from eastern SD into central NE and
eastern CO. Here, strong heating and moderate instability will
support scattered severe wind and hail. Shear is not forecast to be
very strong, but will support slow-moving/rightward propagating
cells or convective systems. Given the low predictability, will
defer any potential Slight Risk to later outlooks.

Elsewhere, moderate to strong instability will again support
scattered storms across much of central and eastern TX with mainly
locally strong outflows and periodic pulse hail during the heat of
the day in this weak shear environment.

..Jewell.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101940
SWODY3
SPC AC 101939

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected Thursday
across parts of the central to northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of Texas.

...North/central High Plains to Upper Midwest...
Scattered storms are expected to ongoing Thursday morning from the
eastern Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin, in areas along/north
of a warm front. Limited severe potential is expected with the
storms. Into peak heating, stronger/deeper convective development is
expected near a weak surface wave/cold front extending from eastern
South Dakota and southern Minnesota west-southeastward across
Nebraska, and in vicinity of the north/south-oriented dryline/lee
trough across the central High Plains. Strong heating and moderate
instability will support scattered severe storms capable of wind and
hail. Vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong, but will
support slow-moving cells or convective clusters.

...Southern Plains...
While specific predictability is limited into the Day 3 time frame,
largely owing to prior day convection and outflows, moderate to
strong instability will again support scattered storms regionally.
This should especially be the case across much of central and
eastern Texas, with locally strong outflows and periodic pulse hail
possible during the heat of the day within a modest vertical shear
environment.

..Guyer.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110725
SWODY3
SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the
central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Rockies, with preceding shortwave ridging over the northern
High Plains. High pressure over the upper MS Valley will help shunt
low-level moisture westward due to southwest winds, and a plume of
theta-e will develop from the central Plains into eastern WY and
south-central MT late.

By late afternoon, and through evening, storms are likely from
western into central MT, extending down the Front Range. The west to
northwest flow aloft atop the backed surface winds should result in
a favorable area of shear for cells producing hail, and, eventual
merging of outflows and MCS potential from northeast CO/southeast WY
into western NE and KS, with areas of damaging wind possible.

Elsewhere, isolated cells are likely to develop over the southern
High Plains where strong heating will occur within a weak surface
trough, and southeast wind maintain moisture and instability. Hail
and locally strong gusts will be likely in this marginal shear
environment.

..Jewell.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111929
SWODY3
SPC AC 111928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the
central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific
Northwest toward the northern Rockies/High Plains on Friday.
Downstream, considerable model variance remains regarding the
evolution of a weak mid/upper-level low initially centered over the
Ozarks vicinity. This system is generally expected to move eastward
and gradually weaken, but extensive convection in its vicinity on
D1/Wednesday into D2/Thursday results in greater than normal
uncertainty regarding its evolution by D3/Friday.

...MT southeastward into the central/southern High Plains...
In advance of the approaching shortwave trough, low-level easterly
flow to the north of a lee cyclone will transport moisture into
parts of western/central MT and northern WY. Moderate
destabilization and increasing deep-layer shear will support
development of scattered strong to severe storms by afternoon. A few
supercells will be possible initially as storms develop near the
higher terrain of MT/WY, with a threat of hail and localized severe
gusts as they move eastward. One or more clusters may grow upscale
by evening, with corridors of strong to severe gusts possible.

Deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker into the central High
Plains, but still sufficient to support modestly organized storms
during the afternoon/evening. One or more clusters could eventually
spread eastward into western NE/KS by evening, aided by a nocturnal
low-level jet and accompanied by a severe-wind threat. Farther
south, storms may be more isolated into the southern High Plains,
but strong instability and marginal deep-layer shear could support
isolated hail and severe-wind potential.

...Ozarks into the Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley vicinity...
Given the aforementioned uncertainty regarding the slow-moving
mid/upper-level low near the Ozarks, confidence in the details of
storm evolution near and downstream of this low are highly
uncertain. In general, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon/evening from the Ozarks and lower/mid
MS Valley into the OH Valley, within a moist, moderately unstable,
and weakly capped environment. Generally weak midlevel lapse rates
and modest deep-layer flow/shear should tend to limit overall storm
intensity, but isolated instances of damaging wind or hail cannot be
ruled out across a broad area, given the expected coverage of
storms.

If convective augmentation of the mid/upper-level low results in
stronger wind profiles than currently forecast, or if storms can
develop along the southwest periphery of the low (where lapse rates
and shear will be stronger, but forcing will be weaker), then a more
organized severe threat could evolve. At this time, the threat
appears too nebulous for severe probabilities.

Farther north, a strong storm or two could develop near a remnant
frontal boundary in the upper MS Valley vicinity, though a lack of
strong large-scale ascent and uncertainty regarding the frontal
position result in limited confidence regarding any localized severe
threat.

...Mid Atlantic vicinity...
A moderately unstable and weakly capped environment is also expected
from parts PA southward into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas Friday.
Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. A
modest westerly mid/upper-level flow regime could support a few
strong cells/clusters. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak flow below
700 mb may tend to limit a more organized severe threat, but
localized instances of wind damage will be possible.

..Dean.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120715
SWODY3
SPC AC 120714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts
of the central Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over the northwestern
states on Saturday, with an upper high over northern Mexico, AZ and
NM. Modest west/northwest winds aloft will exist along the US/CN
border and into the Great Lakes, with generally weak shear across
the remainder of the CONUS.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will stretch roughly from
the Black Hills eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with a large area
of 60s to 70s F dewpoints over most of the southern and central
Plains, mid to lower MS Valley, and across the Southeast.

...Plains...
Areas of early day storms may be ongoing over parts of NE, KS and
OK, depending on what survives the previous night. Otherwise, a lee
trough will develop over the central and southern High Plains during
the afternoon, with strong heating contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg
MUCAPE. Although shear will remain weak, little if any capping will
be present during peak heating, and the very moist air mass should
yield areas of storm development from the Black Hills southward into
eastern NM. Additional activity may redevelop, or even persist, in
association with any robust early activity or residual outflows.
Given weak shear, strong outflow and damaging gusts appears to be
the primary concern, although sporadic hail may occur with initial
development over the high Plains. Uncertainties exist in this weak
forcing setup, but local corridors of higher probabilities may be
needed in later outlook updates.

..Jewell.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121927
SWODY3
SPC AC 121927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts
of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur
from southern Montana into the southern High Plains.

...Central/Northern Plains...
The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern
Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave
perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40
kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms
capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A
low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in
Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the
evening.

Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota
as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large
and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though
development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been
extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat.

...Central/Southeast Montana...
With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest,
the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient
low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered
storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into
central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely
hazards with this activity.

...Southern Plains...
There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday
activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the
location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the
general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or
perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear
will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but
large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a
corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have
been extended east to account for this possibility, though
uncertainty is still high.

...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic...
Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as
a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor
lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat.
Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an
area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time.

..Wendt.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, capable of isolated large hail and severe
wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Elsewhere in the Great Plains,
marginally severe storms will be possible. A few severe wind gusts
may also occur from parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia.

...Northern Plains/Northern Nebraska...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central and
northern High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough rides
up and over the ridge. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop
over Wyoming, with upslope flow remaining over much of the northern
Plains. A moist airmass will be located from eastern Montana into
the Dakotas and Nebraska, where moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher
terrain of the northern High Plains, with additional storms possible
further east into parts of the Dakotas. NAM forecast soundings late
Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking near
4000 J/kg with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment should
support supercell development, with large hail and wind damage being
possible. A tornado could also occur. The severe threat will likely
persist into the evening, as low-level flow gradually increases
across the region.

...Southern Nebraska/Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas...
A moist airmass will remain in place across much of the southern and
central Plains on Sunday. Surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to
the mid 70s F will contribute to the development of strong
instability across parts of this airmass by afternoon. In spite of a
lack of large-scale ascent, isolated convective initiation will be
possible as surface temperatures peak in the afternoon. The most
likely location for storm development would be along or near any
residual outflow boundary. Forecast MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg
range, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderate
deep-layer shear would support an isolated severe threat. Hail and
marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats.

...North Carolina/Southern Virginia...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the
southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, a
moist airmass is forecast over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia.
As surface temperatures warm in the late morning and early
afternoon, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain
of the southern and central Appalachians. As this convection moves
eastward into the lower elevations, thunderstorms are expected to
form. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively
weak, moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates could be
sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 06/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131931
SWODY3
SPC AC 131930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana
southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe
storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain
possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia.

...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska...
The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level
winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave
trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface
troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear
and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe
wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with
initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS
that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of
convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the
low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at
present. Trends in guidance will be monitored.

...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas...
As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk
will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There
is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection
within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and
Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad
trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a
theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With
2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be
present.

...North Carolina/Virginia...
With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing
for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations
within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV
could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon.
Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak
and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should
these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind
damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV.

..Wendt.. 06/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140717
SWODY3
SPC AC 140716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are
expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally
severe storms will be possible across much of the central and
northern U.S.

...Great Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level ridge will remain in place on Monday from the central
Rockies northward into the northern High Plains. A subtle shortwave
trough will move northeastward into the northern Rockies. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the
northern Plains. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F
will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability
by afternoon. Convection is likely to initiate near the front as
surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase during the
day. These storms are forecast to move east-southeastward into the
strong instability during the afternoon. 21Z NAM forecast soundings
along and near the instability axis mostly have 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 40 knot range, with 700 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with isolated large
hail, mainly early in the event. Mid-level flow is forecast to be
nearly parallel to the boundary, suggesting that a gradual
transition to linear mode could take place during the late afternoon
and early evening. Linear mode would be more favorable for a
wind-damage threat. The severe threat should gradually move into the
mid Missouri Valley during the evening, where low-level flow is
forecast to increase.

Further south into parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas and northern
Oklahoma, isolated convective initiation should take place as
surface temperatures warm during the day, along zones of maximized
low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place
over much of the moist airmass. This should support an isolated
severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. However,
any convection that initiates will have to overcome layer of warm
air around 800 mb. This should keep any threat marginal during the
afternoon and evening.

..Broyles.. 06/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141931
SWODY3
SPC AC 141931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are
expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally
severe storms will be possible across much of the central and
northern U.S.

...Synopsis...
A belt of mid-level westerly flow will move across the central/high
Plains on D3/Monday, dampening ridge heights and creating a more of
a zonal flow regime. A surface low will deepen across eastern
Colorado, with a southwest to northeast oriented cold front shifting
south and eastward across Nebraska through the period.

...Great Plains/Upper Midwest..
Convection is likely to be ongoing across portions of North
Dakota/Minnesota. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
along the aforementioned cold front in Nebraska/southern Dakotas by
Monday afternoon. Guidance suggest there will be MLCIN in place
across some portion of the central plains, weakening with northward
extent into central Nebraska. Forcing for ascent is along expected
to be greatest in the region from central Nebraska into southern
South Dakota with the advancing wave and cold front, which should
aid eroding of remaining CIN. Deep layer shear largely parallel to
the cold front should encourage linear modes, with potential for
damaging wind given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should
advance eastward along the front into portions of the Upper Mid-west
through time.

More isolated development may be possible across portions of the
central Plains, though warmer 850 mb temperatures and stronger MLCIN
beneath higher heights will keep the overall severe threat more
marginal. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear
and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place over much of the
moist air mass. This should support an isolated severe threat, with
hail and strong wind gusts possible.

..Thornton.. 06/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150724
SWODY3
SPC AC 150723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated large hail and wind-damage threat
will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and
lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally
severe storms may develop over parts of the central U.S. An isolated
severe threat is also expected across parts of the Central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

...Great Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
Rockies on Tuesday, as a ridge remains in place over the southern
Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through
the central U.S., likely reaching southern Kansas, northwest
Missouri and southeast Iowa by afternoon. To the south of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to
moderate to strong instability across much of this moist airmass by
afternoon. As low-level convergence increases, convection is
expected to initiate along and near the front, with scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms moving southeastward toward the instability
axis in the late afternoon and early evening.

Model forecasts suggest that an impressive thermodynamic environment
will be in place ahead of the front by Tuesday afternoon. From 21Z
to 00Z, NAM forecast soundings along parts of the instability axis
have MLCAPE peaking between 4000 and 5000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer
shear is also forecast, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels.
This environment should support supercells with large hail,
especially early in the event when storms are more likely be
discrete. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop as storms
congeal, and as a line gradually organizes. The severe threat should
persist through much of the evening, with MCS development possible.

Further northwest into parts of the central High Plains, upslope
easterly flow is forecast within a post-frontal airmass. Surface
dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, pockets of moderate instability are expected to
develop over parts of the region. Thunderstorms are expected to
initiate in the higher terrain during the early to mid afternoon,
with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be
sufficient for a marginal severe threat.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward across the southern and central Appalachians on Tuesday.
Ahead of this feature, a very moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F over much of the
Atlantic Coastal Plain. By afternoon, moderate instability is
expected to develop within most of this airmass. Convection will
initiate in the higher terrain of the Appalachians, and move
eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, evident on
forecast soundings, will contribute to a marginal wind-damage
threat.

..Broyles.. 06/15/2025

$$

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