ACUS02 KWNS 060537
SWODY2
SPC AC 060536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Southeast to the Lower OH/Mid-MS Valleys...
A large MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across the
OK/AR vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
over the central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two
distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest
and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM continues to
phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic
fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant
severe-weather potential should first emanate downstream of the
morning MCS and remnant MCV. Enhanced mid-level westerlies should be
present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley and
interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south
and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing
outflows from extensive D1 convection. Considered an upgrade to a
level 3-ENH for damaging wind centered on northern MS/AL/GA, but
have deferred due to mesoscale uncertainties at this time frame.

A likely separate regime of afternoon to evening storm development
should be focused ahead of the central Plains to Midwest shortwave
trough. Primary uncertainty here is the degree of diurnal
destabilization in the wake of/to the north-northwest of the Mid to
Deep South MCS. Have expanded level 2-SLGT risk somewhat north
across the southern MO vicinity, but confidence in overall
intensity/coverage farther downstream is low.

...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...
In the wake of the large MCS that is expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Saturday, guidance remains consistent in suggesting a relative
down-day in terms of late afternoon storms across the southern High
Plains. Convection will probably remain quite isolated and initially
tied to the Raton Mesa and Trans-Pecos vicinities. Isolated
development is also possible in the TX Big Country at the
intersection of the dryline and large-scale outflow from the morning
MCS. Weak low-level warm advection atop this outflow in the evening
should aid in scattered thunderstorms downstream through the
Mid-South. With expansion of the southern Plains EML, a mix of
scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds is possible before
intensity wanes overnight.

...Dakotas vicinity...
A mid/upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
amplify into the Dakotas/MN through early Sunday. As this occurs,
the primary surface cyclone should drift east across southern MB. A
cold front will arc to the south-southwest of this cyclone and move
southeast across the Dakotas during the afternoon. MLCAPE should
remain meager with low-quality boundary-layer moisture. But the
strengthening forcing for ascent should support a band of
lower-topped convection. Strong to localized severe gusts are
possible during the late afternoon to early evening when a
well-mixed boundary layer is prevalent.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061723
SWODY2
SPC AC 061722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK
into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase
with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to
the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave
will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians
by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly
flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread
Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700
mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will
overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500
J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in
stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of
MO/IL/KY and vicinity.

The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging
wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection
is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the
morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and
rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions
of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters
with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may
occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective
evolution.

Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with
the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into
the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the
airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability
could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for
organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases.
While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for
damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist
during the afternoon into early evening.

...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...

A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will
shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early
evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow
over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a
seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold
front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear
magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible.
Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small
bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the
afternoon.

...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX...

Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on
Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the
morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting
eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest
upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts
and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may
develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the
vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and
unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear
will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage.
Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with
any storms that can develop.

...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN...

A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on
Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern
Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented
trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality
destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled
with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with
somewhat low-topped/high-based convection.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070553
SWODY2
SPC AC 070552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN
TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the
wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will
become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9
C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front
from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon.

With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal
intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as
the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the
eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance
continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along
and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles
from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the
strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable
of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows,
further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west
TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that
should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS.
This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures
capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes.
The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the
development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail
potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in
spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that
will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by
late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely
weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A
strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to
southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast
will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal
into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant
severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a
brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as
southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate
buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple
embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms
developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the
coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak
updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds
and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also
possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential
heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a
central Appalachians MCV.

..Grams.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071736
SWODY2
SPC AC 071735

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071746
SWODY2
SPC AC 071745

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071750
SWODY2
SPC AC 071749

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080549
SWODY2
SPC AC 080547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Southeast...
Below-average confidence exists for this forecast with large spread
across D2 guidance in the handling of an early-morning MCS and
attendant MCV in the MS vicinity, amid modest background wind fields
outside of the MCV influence. Most guidance indicates convection
should intensify towards midday, along and downstream of the
large-scale outflow as the boundary layer destabilizes across the
Deep South. Some guidance indicates convection may redevelop behind
it and become the primary corridor for damaging winds during the
afternoon. For now, have maintained a broad level 2-SLGT risk for
scattered damaging winds to the South Atlantic Coast.

...Upper OH Valley...
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should generally remain along to
the cool side of a weak cold front shifting east. Most guidance has
trended up with the degree of boundary-layer heating ahead of the
front, which will be required to boost buoyancy amid marginal
mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of primarily scattered damaging
winds, along with a tornado and isolated severe hail, may develop
amid modest MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. With a confined buoyancy plume,
convection should weaken as it spreads towards the northern
Appalachians on Monday evening.

...NM/TX...
An intense and large MCS on Sunday should drive a composite
outflow/cold front into central/south TX, with a meridional arc over
central to western NM. Scattered to numerous afternoon storms will
probably remain tied to the higher terrain of northern/central NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Isolated storms are also possible near the front from the
southern Trans-Pecos through southeast TX with a severe hail/wind
threat. Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level
warm theta-e advection north of the front on Monday evening/night.
Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for
a few storms capable of severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081731
SWODY2
SPC AC 081729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
While there is some uncertainty regarding the intensity/organization
and location of the overnight MCS early Monday morning, the general
consensus within the guidance places its associated vorticity max
and surface low over the eastern vicinity. Expectation is then for
this low and vorticity max to continue eastward into the moist and
moderately buoyant airmass downstream across the Southeast.
Thunderstorms appear likely in the vicinity of these features,
including well downstream during the afternoon as boundary layer
destabilizes and along the trailing composite outflow that will
likely maintain its integrity. Damaging gusts will be the primary
risk, particularly across central MS/AL where a corridor of greater
severe potential may materialize. Uncertainty (primarily related to
limited predictability of the system's speed) in this corridor
remains too high to outline any higher probabilities with this
outlook, but an upgrade may be needed in later outlooks.

...OH/TN Valleys...
A plume of moderate to high PWs is forecast extend along the frontal
zone from the Mid-South northeastward through the middle OH Valley
Monday morning. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through
the base of a stacked cyclone moving from the Upper Midwest into
the Upper Great Lakes. This shortwave will encourage an eastward
push to the cold front, while also contributing to strengthening
mid-level flow across the region. The stronger winds will likely be
confined to the mid/upper OH Valley, and mostly behind the front,
with the most likely area of some overlap over OH and PA. However,
this region will be displaced north of the better buoyancy, which is anticipated farther south over KY and TN. This displacement should
temper the overall storm severity, but occasionally strong to severe
are still possible throughout this entire corridor. Scattered
damaging winds will be the primary risk, although lower-probability
tornado and isolated severe hail risks also exist.

...Southern High Plains...
The airmass across the region will likely begin the period behind
the outflow of an extensive overnight MCS. However, these relatively
cool and dry conditions are expected to modify quickly amid strong
heating. A sharpening lee trough will also encourage backing
low-level flow throughout the day, from northerly to easterly (or
even southeasterly), with some low-level moisture advection
possible. These factors could allow convection that initially
develops over the higher terrain to persist eastward/southeastward
into more of the High Plains, with an attendant threat for strong
gusts. The modifying outflow could act as a favorable corridor for
forward propagation and increase damaging gust potential during the
evening.

...Southwest/Central/Southeast TX...
The outflow of an extensive overnight MCS will likely arc from
northern LA through central TX into southwest TX early Monday
morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this boundary as
it gradually shifts southward throughout the day. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected across southeast TX, with warm
low/mid-levels and associated capping should limit the overall
thunderstorm coverage westward. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are
possible with any storms that develop.

...Northwest TX...
Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level warm
theta-e advection north of the front on Monday. Sufficient effective
bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for a few storms capable
of severe hail.

..Mosier.. 06/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090551
SWODY2
SPC AC 090550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX
TRANS-PECOS...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridor for a few severe storms, primarily in the
form of large hail, is across the Texas Trans-Pecos during the late
afternoon Tuesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from
southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and in parts of the
Northwest.

...Southeast NM and southwest TX...
Strong heating is anticipated over the region Tuesday along the
western periphery of seasonably rich low-level moisture. Combined
with steep mid-level lapse rates, large buoyancy with MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg is expected. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the region during the afternoon. In combination with
diurnal orographic ascent, scattered to eventually widespread
thunderstorm development is anticipated. A narrow belt of moderate
mid-level westerlies, centered on the Trans-Pecos, should support a
few supercells in the late afternoon. Large hail will likely be the
primary hazard with sub-10 percent coverage of very large hail
possible. Outside of the Trans-Pecos, sporadic severe wind/hail will
be possible with low confidence on organized upscale growth along
the Rio Grande on Tuesday evening.

...South-central TX to south LA...
A loosely-organized MCS should be ongoing in south-central TX at 12Z
Tuesday. Within a weakly forced and nebulous large-scale pattern,
guidance has a fair amount of spread with subsequent evolution
through the day Tuesday. It is plausible that intensification may
occur by midday along the residual outflow, along with downstream
development towards a quasi-stationary front in LA. Deep-layer shear
will be modest, especially outside of any localized enhancement near
the remnant MCV. Confidence is too low to warrant greater than level
1-MRGL risk probabilities at this time, but isolated severe
wind/hail remains possible.

...Mid/South Atlantic Coast...
A broad mid/upper trough will extend from eastern ON to the OH/TN
Valleys at 12Z Tuesday. The southern extent of this trough will
gradually dampen through the period with slowly rising mid-level
heights. A broad rain swath with embedded thunderstorms is expected
to be ongoing from the Mid-Atlantic northward, where stronger
deep-layer flow will exist. Diurnal destabilization appears quite
limited and locally strong gusts might occur along the southern
periphery of this morning activity.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible into the afternoon along parts
of the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. Despite ample boundary-layer moisture/heating, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit updraft
intensity and overall convective coverage. Locally strong gusts
capable of wind damage will be possible with any sustained storms.
Coverage is likely to be less compared to recent days.

...Northwest...
Low-amplitude mid/upper ridging will break down as a shortwave
trough progresses into northern CA/southwest OR by 12Z Wednesday. As
this process occurs, mid to upper-level flow will become more
westerly with moderate speed shear across the northern Rockies.
Despite weak buoyancy, scattered high-based thunderstorms are
expected. The strongest of these may attain low-end supercell
structure from western to south-central MT during the late afternoon
to early evening. Across southern OR, strengthening large-scale
ascent with approach of the shortwave trough should support
scattered late afternoon to evening storms. High-based multicells to
a couple brief supercells are possible. Isolated, marginally severe
wind/hail events may occur in both regimes.

..Grams.. 06/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091738
SWODY2
SPC AC 091736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridor for severe storms on Tuesday, primarily in
the form of large hail, is across far southeast New Mexico and the
Texas Trans-Pecos during the late afternoon through early evening.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible on Tuesday into
Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New
Mexico to south Louisiana, and in parts of the Northwest.

...Southeast NM and Far West/Southwest TX...
Strong heating is anticipated over the region Tuesday along the
western periphery of seasonably rich low-level moisture in vicinity
of a front and weak surface wave. Combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates, large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is
expected. An upstream low-amplitude shortwave trough near/north of
the International Border will approach the region during the
afternoon. In combination with diurnal orographic ascent, scattered
to eventually widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated. A
narrow belt of moderate mid-level westerlies, centered on the
Trans-Pecos, should support a few supercells in the late afternoon.
Large hail will likely be the primary hazard. Some degree of upscale
growth may occur by evening toward the Rio Grande vicinity, with at
least some severe hail/wind persisting east-southeastward.

...South-central TX to south LA...
It still seems that a loosely-organized MCS may be ongoing in
central TX at 12Z Tuesday. Within a weakly forced and nebulous
large-scale pattern, guidance has a fair amount of spread with
subsequent evolution through the day Tuesday. It is plausible that intensification may occur by midday along the residual outflow,
along with downstream development towards a quasi-stationary front
into LA. Deep-layer shear will be modest, especially outside of any
localized enhancement near the remnant MCV. Confidence remains too
low to warrant greater than level 1-MRGL risk probabilities at this
time, but isolated severe wind/hail remains possible.

...Mid/South Atlantic Coast...
A broad mid/upper trough will extend from eastern Ontario to the
OH/TN Valleys at 12Z Tuesday. The southern extent of this trough
will gradually dampen through the period with slowly rising
mid-level heights. A broad rain swath with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to be ongoing from the Mid-Atlantic northward, where
stronger deep-layer flow will exist. Diurnal destabilization appears
quite limited and locally strong gusts might occur along the
southern periphery of this morning activity.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible into the afternoon along parts
of the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. Despite ample boundary-layer moisture/heating, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit updraft
intensity and overall convective coverage. Locally strong gusts
capable of wind damage will be possible with any sustained storms.
Coverage is likely to be less compared to recent days.

...Northwest and Northern Rockies...
Low-amplitude mid/upper ridging will break down as a shortwave
trough progresses into northern CA/southwest OR by 12Z Wednesday. As
this occurs, mid to upper-level flow will become more westerly with
moderate speed shear across the northern Rockies. Despite weak
buoyancy, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected. The
strongest of these may attain low-end supercell structure from
western to south-central MT during the late afternoon to early
evening. Across southern OR, strengthening large-scale ascent with
approach of the shortwave trough should support scattered late
afternoon to evening storms. High-based multicells to a couple brief
supercells are possible. Isolated, marginally severe wind/hail
events may occur in both regimes.

..Guyer.. 06/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100543
SWODY2
SPC AC 100541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...TEXAS...AND ACROSS IOWA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over parts of
the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Wednesday, modest westerly flow aloft will stretch from CA into
the northern Plains, and from the Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Meanwhile, a weak upper wave will remain nearly stationary over the
southern Plains providing cool temperatures aloft. An embedded wave
will move quickly across southern ID and into the northern High
Plains into Thursday morning, and will interact with a developing
lee trough during the afternoon. Low-level moisture will be
plentiful across the central and southern Plains, and especially
from TX eastward across the Gulf Coast with 70s F dewpoints. A moist
air mass will also exist across the Carolinas, supporting daytime
instability but well south of the upper trough.

...Northern Rockies...
Storms will develop relatively early in the day from eastern OR
across ID as the shortwave trough moves over the area. Scattered
storms will develop and spread quickly eastward into parts of WY and
MT, with areas of strong outflow expected. Scattered severe gusts
may occur. Overall deep-layer shear appears most favorable from
southern ID into western WY, resulting in a few cells capable of
hail as well as strong gusts.

...Central to southern TX...
Moderate instability will develop over much of central into eastern
and southern TX with a moist surface air mass beneath seasonably
cool midlevel temperatures. Little in the way of a focus will exist
except for possible antecedent outflows from early storms over North
TX. However, lack of any capping and diurnal considerations will
lead to scattered storms, with some clusters producing locally
strong wind or isolated hail during the day.

...IA...northern IL and parts of surrounding states...
A stationary front will exist across this region, with strong
heating aiding destabilization. The glancing upper trough may aid
lift, and forecast soundings show light but veering winds with
height and marginal deep-layer shear. Scattered storms producing
hail appear most probable during the late afternoon and evening,
progressing eastward out of IA and into IL/WI and perhaps southern
Lake MI late.

..Jewell.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101748
SWODY2
SPC AC 101746

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA...THE UPPER MIDWEST/CORN BELT...AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over parts of
the Northern Rockies and northern High Plains, the Upper
Midwest/Corn Belt, as well as Texas to western Louisiana.

...Central to southern Texas...
Ahead of a weak mid-level trough, moderate instability should
develop over much of central into eastern/southern Texas with a
moist surface air mass beneath seasonably cool mid-level
temperatures. However, specifics are complicated by the potential of
lingering early-day convection and outflows. Some guidance would
suggest that convection/MCV-related enhancement to the flow field
may occur and linger much of the day, a scenario in which a Slight
Risk could be warranted into the Day 1 time frame pending corridors
of more certain destabilization across central/east Texas. This flow enhancement could influence the potential for supercells and
possibly a tornado risk within a moist environment. Scattered
storms, including some clusters, can otherwise be expected with hail
and wind possible.

...Upper Midwest/Corn Belt...
A west/east-oriented stationary front will exist across this region,
with strong heating aiding moderate to locally strong
destabilization along and south of the boundary. The glancing
influence of a shortwave trough may contribute to storm development
as the boundary layer otherwise destabilizes Wednesday afternoon.
Effective shear of 30-35 kt should generally exist near the front,
potentially allowing for a few supercells and more prevalent
multicells. Scattered storms producing hail/damaging wind appear
most probable during the late afternoon and evening, progressing
eastward out of Iowa toward the Illinois/Wisconsin border vicinity.
A relatively narrow/confined Slight Risk could ultimately be
warranted in the Day 1 time frame.

...Northern Rockies to Northern High Plains...
Storms are expected to develop relatively early in the day from
eastern Oregon across Idaho as a shortwave trough moves over the
region. Scattered storms will develop and spread quickly eastward
into parts of Wyoming and Montana, with areas of strong outflow
expected. Scattered severe gusts may occur. Overall deep-layer shear
appears most favorable from southern Idaho into western Wyoming,
resulting in a few cells capable of hail as well as strong wind
gusts. Additional severe storm development is expected by Wednesday
late afternoon/early evening into the northern High Plains including
near/east of the Big Horns.

..Guyer.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110558
SWODY2
SPC AC 110557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected Thursday
across parts of the central to northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of Texas.

...Synopsis...
The stronger flow aloft will remain over northern portions of the
CONUS on Thursday, with a low-amplitude wave moving across the
northern Plains. South of there, a weak upper low will move from TX
toward the lower to middle MS Valley late.

At the surface, a boundary will stretch roughly from SD eastward to
the Mid Atlantic, with a large area of mid to upper 60s F across
much of the plains and Midwest. A weak is forecast over southwest
NE, with an inverted trough extending northeastward toward southern
MN.

...Northern Plains...
Early day rain/thunderstorms will shift north across eastern SD and
southern MN during the day in a zone of warm advection, with air
mass recovery to the southwest across NE and western KS/eastern CO.
Strong heating and southeast surface winds will yield storms moving
off the Front Range, with locally strong gusts or marginal hail.
Robust convection will form within the surface trough over NE,
extending into southeast SD/western IA/southwest MN as well, with
more of a variety of storms expected. Both damaging winds and hail
are expected. Shear will be marginal but an MCS cannot be ruled out
overnight.

...Much of southern/central/eastern TX...
Substantial moisture and instability will again develop with 70s F
dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft. Clusters of storms are likely
to be ongoing roughly along or east of I-35 much of the day, and
areas of strong wind gusts may occur. West of there, stronger
heating will occur over southwest TX. Shear will be weak but
multicellular convection capable of marginal hail or localized
downbursts may occur.

..Jewell.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111736
SWODY2
SPC AC 111734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FROM TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected Thursday
across parts of the central to northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across
the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A deeper
upstream shortwave trough will begin to influence the Pacific
Northwest. A weak mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift
north-northeastward across eastern portions of the southern Plains.


At the surface, a lee cyclone may gradually deepen during the day
across the central High Plains, while a weak frontal wave is
forecast to develop and move eastward from southern SD into
southwest MN.

...Eastern SD/southern MN into northeast NE/northern IA...
Elevated convection and possibly a MCV/remnant MCS may move across
parts of the Dakotas into MN during the morning. In the wake of the
morning convection, an outflow-influenced surface front is forecast
to move northward across northern NE/IA into parts of eastern SD and
southern MN. While deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, a
localized zone of conditional supercell potential could eventually
evolve near and just north of the front, where increasing low-level
moisture will support moderate buoyancy and surface winds will be
favorably backed.

If any supercells can develop within this regime, then hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado would all be possible. With
the primary shortwave trough generally forecast to dampen with time
and be displaced somewhat north of the more favorable environment,
coverage of diurnal supercell development (if any) is uncertain.
Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
in this scenario increases. Otherwise, storm coverage may generally
increase north of the front from late afternoon into the evening
within a low-level warm-advection regime, with some clustering
possible as convection spreads across southern MN Thursday night.

...Parts of the central/northern High Plains...
High-based convection is expected to develop Thursday afternoon
across parts of northeast CO/eastern WY. Deep-layer flow will be
rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and sufficient
buoyancy could support localized hail and strong to severe gusts
with initial development. With time, an outflow-driven cluster could
spread into the NE Panhandle, with potentially a somewhat greater
concentration of strong/severe gusts.

...Southern/central/east TX into the ArkLaMiss region...
Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of central/east TX. Rich low-level moisture, moderate
buoyancy, and modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow could support at
least an isolated threat for a tornado, locally damaging gusts, and
perhaps some hail with the morning convection.

Storm evolution during the day is uncertain, but in general, an arc
of convection may spread northeastward toward the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss
vicinities during the afternoon, in conjunction with the primary mid/upper-level low or any MCVs that develop. Locally damaging wind
and possibly a tornado could accompany the storms within this
regime.

Some redevelopment is also possible along the trailing outflow
during the afternoon and evening into south-central TX, with a
threat of localized hail and wind-damage.

...Western/central PA into the northern Mid Atlantic...
Moderate destabilization is expected Thursday afternoon from parts
of western/central PA into the northern Mid Atlantic, along and
south of a cold front. This region will be on the southern periphery
of stronger west-northwesterly flow aloft, and with sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized convection. However, with large-scale
ascent generally displaced well to the north and very weak
convergence expected along the front, potential for sustained deep
convection currently appears limited. Severe probabilities may be
needed if a stronger signal for robust development emerges with
time.

..Dean.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120519
SWODY2
SPC AC 120518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the
central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest during the
day and into the northern Rockies late, with an upper ridge building
from northern Mexico into AZ/NM. Meanwhile, modest westerly flow
aloft will exist over the Northeast as a weak disturbance moves
across AR/MO and into the mid MS/Lower OH Valleys.

At the surface, low pressure will exist across the Great Basin with
a southwest flow regime south of the upper trough, with a lee trough
along the length of the High Plains. Increasing boundary layer
theta-e will spread into the High Plains via southeast winds,
resulting in an elongated area of scattered severe storm potential
during the afternoon and evening.

...MT into the central High Plains...
Strong heating will occur over much of west-central/southwest MT,
and extending into WY CO and NM, as well as western NE/KS/TX-OK
Panhandles, resulting in steep lapse rates. Meanwhile, southeast
surface winds will bring moisture northwestward into the High
Plains, with a large area of moderate instability developing.

Storms are expected to form by 21Z over western MT, with additional
storms into eastern WY/northeast CO. These will likely produce hail
and areas of damaging wind. Other isolated storms are likely all the
way south into eastern NM/western TX.

Elsewhere, strong instability and ample moisture may result in
scattered strong storms over much of MO, AR, LA, MS and vicinity,
though the likelihood of ongoing early storms and outflows results
in low predictability at this time. Locally strong gusts may occur.

..Jewell.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121730
SWODY2
SPC AC 121728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the
central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

...Synopsis...
A weak shortwave trough will move through the Ozarks into the mid
Mississippi Valley region on Friday. This feature will likely lose
amplitude with time. Farther west, a stronger shortwave trough will
move into the northern Rockies by late afternoon/evening while
surface ridging will build into the Southwest and southern High
Plains.

...Montana into the central High Plains...
Strong surface heating and a lee trough promoting moisture influx
into these regions will lead to an elongated region of greater
confidence in severe storm coverage from Montana into the northern
Texas Panhandle. With the trough approaching the northern Rockies,
the highest storm coverage will likely be in Montana into parts of
Wyoming. Effective shear in these areas (particularly near the Big
Horns) will range from 45-55 kts. Large hail, including some
potential for stones around 2 inches in diameter, and severe wind
gusts are probable. Farther to the south, storm coverage will
gradually become more limited, especially away from terrain
initiation sources. Even so, clusters of initial supercells or small
linear segments will pose some risk for large hail and severe wind
gusts as well.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Along the southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow, a few storms
are possible along a weak surface boundary near the
Maryland/Pennsylvania border. Some model guidance shows a weak
shortwave perturbation moving into the region, but timing and
strength of the feature are variable. Mid-level lapse rates are
expected to be weak and buoyancy will largely depend on surface
heating. Given the uncertainty in cloud cover, it appears any severe
will be conditional. A few stronger storms are possible and trends
in guidance will be monitored with regard to areas of sufficient
surface heating.

...Southeast/Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely near and ahead of the weak
upper-level shortwave trough that will be slowly lifting northeast
through the Ozarks. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are
likely during the morning/afternoon. This increases the uncertainty
as to where the greatest amount of destabilization will occur. Some
modest flow enhancement appears probable for the Mid-South/lower
Ohio Valley vicinity, though mid-level winds will weaken through the
day. Greater buoyancy is expected in Mississippi, but deep-layer
shear will be much weaker. There is certainly potential for isolated
wind damage from the stronger storms tomorrow afternoon, but
confidence in highlighting an area of greater coverage of organized
severe storms is low at this point.

..Wendt.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130559
SWODY2
SPC AC 130558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and isolated damaging
wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern
High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms
will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the north-central U.S.
on Saturday. In the wake of the ridge, a subtle shortwave trough
will move into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface,
a moist airmass will be present across much of the Great Plains.
Upslope flow will be in place over the central and northern High
Plains, where a pocket of moderate to strong instability is forecast
to develop Saturday afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, convection will first initiate in the higher terrain from
east-central Montana southeastward to the Black Hills. From this
convection, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
eastward into the lower elevations of the central and northern High
Plains.

An impressive thermodynamic environment is forecast to be in place
by Saturday afternoon from northeast Wyoming into western Nebraska,
where model forecasts suggest MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg.
Near the instability maximum, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to
be near 8 C/km. In spite of this, forecast soundings in the central
and northern High Plains have a capping inversion in place during
the afternoon. This should keep the initial convective development
confined to the higher terrain of southeast Montana, northeast
Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Forecasts soundings late
Saturday afternoon in this area mostly have 0-6 km shear in the 30
to 40 knot range, mainly due to mid-level speed shear. The shear,
combined with the moderate to strong instability, will likely
support a severe threat. Supercells should be capable of isolated
large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist
into the mid to late evening, as low-level flow increases.

...Southern and Central Plains...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on
Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across
much of the southern and central Plains. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, moderate instability is forecast to develop
throughout much of this airmass. Due to the presence of the ridge,
large-scale ascent will remain weak in most areas. In spite of this,
isolated thunderstorms may still develop in areas where low-level
convergence and surface heating are maximized, and further west in
the higher terrain of the central and southern High Plains. Forecast
soundings late Saturday afternoon across the southern and central
Plains generally have large surface-temperature dewpoint spreads
with steep lapse rates. This environment will also have sufficient
deep-layer shear for isolated severe storms. Hail and marginally
severe wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 06/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High
Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will
also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the
day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the
Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies,
troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place
underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and
westward given the presence of lee troughing.

...Montana into central High Plains...
With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the
Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface
troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to
advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of
40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at
least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and
severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve
through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet
focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit
farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary
threat with that activity.

...Central/southern Plains...
The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas.
Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from
overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity
could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the
day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a
scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics.
For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over
much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional
outcome.

Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or
surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level
ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more
isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated
severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters.

...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota...
A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight
may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary.
Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would
support some risk for marginally severe hail.

...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic...
A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east.
This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across
these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500
J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor
lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level
winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind
damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs.

..Wendt.. 06/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140556
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central
High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in
parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on
Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and
northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over
Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the
central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface
dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the
development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon.
Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the
northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent
should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In
addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be
very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for
large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A
wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will
increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe
threat.

Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and
southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected
to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of
the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be
possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along
pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is
evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some
cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts
would be possible.

...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee
low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface
dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian
foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic
forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation
around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become
steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind
gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 06/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141726
SWODY2
SPC AC 141724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central
High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in
parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level high will remain in place across the central/northern
Plains into the northern Rockies on D2/Sunday. Westerly flow aloft
will move across the ridge, with a few shortwave impulses rotating
through the flow. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected
from the Northern Rockies southward across the dryline in the
central high Plains. A surface low is expected to deepen across
Wyoming through the period, lifting northward across the Dakotas.

...Central and Northern Plains...
As the surface low across Wyoming deepens, east to southeasterly
flow will continue across the central and northern Plains. Dew
points in the low to mid 60s will be common, allowing for strong to
moderate instability to develop by the afternoon. Upslope flow
across the northern Rockies and forcing for ascent with shortwaves
rounding the ridge will allow for scattered thunderstorm development
across the high terrain spreading into the lower elevations through
the later afternoon/evening. Generally straight hodograph profiles
will support initial supercell modes before clustering and upscale
growth occurs into the late afternoon. Given steep lapse rates and
ample deep layer shear, large to very large hail (some 2-3"+) will
be possible.

As the surface low deepens into the afternoon, mass response will
occur with an increase in a southerly low-level jet into the western
Dakotas. CAM guidance shows some uncertainty in evolution of storms
as they move eastward out of Montana. There is consistent signal
that an MCS will travel eastward across some portions of the
Dakotas, with potential for strong to significant winds (60-75+
mph). Should a more favorable corridor become established, an
upgrade to higher probabilities may be needed.

...Southern/South-Central Plains into the Missouri Valley...
An MCS will likely be ongoing across portions of Oklahoma into
northern Texas early in the period. Residual outflow in association
with this will set up across portion of north-central Texas into
Missouri. Convective re-development may be somewhat inhibited due to
warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of
this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence
increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries.
Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This
could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat.
Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible.

...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee
low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon across
northern North Carolina into southern Virginia. Sufficient deep
layer and instability will allow for a few instances of severe wind
and hail within stronger cores.

..Thornton.. 06/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150603
SWODY2
SPC AC 150602

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind
damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains
northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this
area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the
central and northern U.S.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas
on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates
eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will
initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late
morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during
the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe
threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong
instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south
across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central
Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level
convergence along the front is expected to become maximized.
Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the
south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley from late afternoon into the evening.

NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late
Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range,
with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb
lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells
with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast
to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South
Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce
hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe
threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into
southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be
enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will
also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to
increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2
range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also
expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and
short bowing line segments.

...Kansas/Oklahoma...
A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of
the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be
in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000
J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of
low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an
isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air
aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be
along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon
and early evening.

...Northern Rockies/North Dakota...
A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies
eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will
contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the
higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as
surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of
large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated.
Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe
storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 06/15/2025

$$

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