ACUS11 KWNS 090023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090022=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-090145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...397...

Valid 090022Z - 090145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 397
continues.

SUMMARY...A significant severe wind risk is increasing with merging
supercells. A bow echo may develop and produce a derecho, with peak
gusts in the 80-100 mph range possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, with reported severe hail across
the southeastern TX Panhandle, are beginning to merge. Multiple West
Texas Mesonet stations have reported peak 10-m gusts in roughly the
60-75 mph range, and this trend should continue to increase if these
storms successfully morph into a bow echo over the next couple of
hours. While supercells have occurred downstream of the southeast TX
Panhandle storms, it does not appear that large-scale tropospheric
overturning has occurred. As such, a very unstable warm sector
precedes the upscale-growing storms, with 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and
50 kts of effective bulk shear being common (as also shown by the
00Z FWD observed sounding). The effective bulk shear vectors are
oriented roughly orthogonal to the merging line, which should
further encourage bow echo development.=20

Assuming bow echo development ensues over the next few hours, a
strong cold pool could encourage intense rear-inflow jet
development, which upon downward momentum transport could support a
derecho. In this scenario, widespread 60+ mph sustained winds may be
expected, with multiple embedded gusts peaking somewhere in the
75-100 mph range. The derecho could begin somewhere in the 01-03Z
period, and last for several hours downstream, the evolution of
which may need to be covered with a downstream PDS Severe
Thunderstorm Watch across much of north-central into northeast TX.

..Squitieri.. 06/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9O1tkNfgVpHf1LZNN25UUHQkfUCXSVJmBWrxweRpBgQn2Fm7krRZ7WVyun4yQZZy0CzM3zssb= Nrf93G-ZMyf8OBL7GY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 34200052 33929778 33639726 33239725 32569766 32119826
32159921 32419995 32650054 33050107 34200052=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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