FOUS30 KWBC 060033
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
833 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Jun 06 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 06 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...Central to Southern Plains...

A broad area of convection this evening across the High Plains=20
down into Southwest TX will account for 3 areas of focus for the=20
remainder of the D1 ERO. The most significant of the heavy rain=20
prospects is currently in the initial phase with a strong=20
mesocyclone over Southeast CO likely to propagate downstream and=20
grow upscale with aid from a budding nocturnal LLJ positioned=20
across KS/OK and points south. 50+ kt deep layer shear will help=20
maintain a relevant kinematic environment capable of enhancing and
sustaining an eventual MCS moving southeast from Southwestern KS
down through Northern OK during the overnight period, mainly
following the northern edge of a theta_E gradient situated across
the above zone. Despite forward momentum of the eventual MCS,
embedded convective cores will be capable of locally enhanced
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr with totals likely reaching 2-3" in the
path of the MCS with some 3-5" totals possible over the upwind side
of the complex. For more information on this threat, please see MPD
#372.

Across the Texas Caprock down into Southwest TX, a few supercells
will eventually grow upscale and migrate slowly to the east leading
a trail of heavy rainfall in their paths over the next 3-6 hrs=20
before waning overnight. The conglomeration over Southwest TX will=20
maintain the greatest footprint in heavy rain coverage with the=20
highest flash flood threat likely over the terrain areas
encompassing the Davis and Glass Mtns, and along the I-10 corridor
situated in the Stockton Plateau. Multiple flash flood warnings are
already in effect for those areas with totals likely breaching 2"
in several areas across the above zones by the end of the event.
These setups can be tricky and prolonged heavy rain threats beyond
current CAMs inference are unfortunately common as cold pool
convergence can maintain cell clustering longer than normal.=20

The zone across CO/KS/OK maintained the previous SLGT risk with a
minor extension on the western flank of the risk. The MRGL was kept
for much of West TX with the best flash flood risks likely over the
Caprock of TX into Northwest TX near the Red River, and over
Southwest TX within the Davis/Glass Mtn area and adjacent Stockton
Plateau.=20

...Southern Great Basin into the Central Sierras...

Elongated surface trough and attendant surface low across the
Southern Sierras will maintain a positively buoyant environment
within the confines of the Sierras down into the Southern Great
Basin (See MPD #373 for details on the setup across the Great Basin).
Visible satellite over the West indicates two distinct surface=20
boundaries bisecting Southern NV into Southern UT and across
Northern AZ to the Colorado River Basin at the CA/AZ border.=20
Mesoanalysis across the area indicates a relative instability=20
maximum within that portion of the Desert Southwest with SBCAPE=20
~500-1000 J/kg aligned over Northwestern AZ into Southern NV, a=20
stripe over the Central Sierra's where locally heavy rainfall is=20
already producing some flash flood concerns in the Foothills. The=20
threat for convection lingering between 01-04z is pretty high when=20
assessing hourly CAMs, and projects well considering the=20
environment in place. This is a signature typically seen as one=20
that can prolong heavy rain potential over the region, an area very
susceptible to flash flooding concerns with stronger convective=20
cores. A MRGL risk was maintained over the Southern Great Basin=20
with an extension up through the Central Sierra's given the local=20 instability maximum situated over the area with ongoing=20
thunderstorms.=20

..Ohio Valley into the Northern Mid Atlantic...

Area convection continues to fire within the terrain across WV and
Western PA with a tongue of instability remaining along and ahead
of a cold front analyzed from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
Shear remains confined over NY State with less deep layer shear as
you move south leading to the strongest thunderstorm activity
situated across Southern NY state. A quick 1-2" will be plausible
within the environment in place this evening with a trend in less
coverage anticipated after 03z. A shortwave currently analyzed over
the Mid-Mississippi Valley will slide eastward overnight with a
better dynamical input positioned across the Eastern Ohio Valley
early tomorrow morning as CAMs initiate another round of convection
across OH and Western PA after 09z. Despite a weaker surface based
instability prog over the area, there's enough of a combination of
boundary layer buoyancy and mid-level ascent to enhance area
convection capable of isolated flash flood potential during the
early morning hours. As a result, the previous MRGL risk was
maintained within that zone of Southern OH, extending northeast
into Southern NY State with an alignment closely tied to the cold
front progression this evening.=20

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 06 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA INTO THE KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, MISSOURI, ARKANSAS BORDER
REGION...

...2030Z Update...

...Oklahoma into the OK/KS/MO/Ar border area...

Ongoing convection associated with an MCS passing through eastern
Oklahoma during the day 1 period may continue into day 2 Friday
morning, with a continued risk for locally heavy rainfall and
scattered flash flooding. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains
on track, and similar to day 1 in both nature and location, with
the expectation that afternoon/evening thunderstorms developing
ahead of a triple point low located over the central/southern High
Plains will grow upscale into an MCS. This system should track east-southeastward through Oklahoma late Friday night/early
Saturday with an attendant risk for locally heavy rainfall rates of
1-2" and totals of 2-4" leading to scattered instances of flash
flooding.

...Mid MS, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys...

A complex forecast is apparent for this region given the potential
for an ongoing and/or influence from an overnight MCS Thursday
night/Friday morning. Hi-res guidance suggests that an MCS
developing over the central/southern High Plains and passing
eastward through the central/southern Plains Thursday night/Friday
morning will continue eastward into the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Friday afternoon. Any sustained
convection may also be augmented by redevelopment along associated
outflow boundary(s), which would help to focus what would be a more
nebulous distribution of storms and lead to more widespread,
higher rainfall totals supportive of a greater flash flood threat.
Regardless of the influence of this MCS, the prior forecast remains
on track. The presence of an anomalously moist, unstable airmass
along and ahead of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be
enough to trigger scattered to widespread thunderstorms capable of
locally heavy rainfall and at least isolated flash flooding.

...New England...

A frontal wave forming along a cold front draped through southern
New England westward through the Lower Great Lakes will help
encourage a moist, southerly return flow from the Atlantic
northward through New England during the day Friday. Multiple
shortwave passages and a warm conveyer belt setup will lead to
multiple rounds of thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall.
An axis with a potentially higher threat was noted from the eastern Catskills/greater Albany northeastward through northwestern
Massachusetts, southern Vermont, and central New Hampshire,
particularly given the sensitivity of the more complex terrain
through the region. However, with the latest hi-res guidance still
relatively localized on higher totals, have held at a Marginal Risk
for now pending a confirmation/increase in potentially more
widespread, higher totals.

Putnam

...Previous Forecast...

...Oklahoma into the OK/KS/MO/Ar border area...
Another round of shortwave energy forecast to drop east
southeastward from the Central Rockies into the Central to Southern
Plains Friday into Friday night/early Saturday. This will support
potential for another round of organized convection in the vicinity
of the west to east oriented frontal zone. PW values along this
front will remain above average...2+ standard deviations above the
mean, supporting heavy precip potential. There is fairly good model
consensus for an axis of heavy rains along this front across much
of OK into the OK/KS/MO/AR border region. Only some slight changes
to the previous slight risk area to reflect this qpf axis
consensus.

...Southern Great Basin into the Central to Southern Rockies...
Not a lot of changes expected to the large scale flow from day 1
across the southern Great Basin into the Central Rockies. PW values
forecast to remain above average with additional shortwave energy
moving across the region in the west south west flow aloft. This
should support another day of widespread scattered convection and
localized heavy rain and isolated runoff issues. The marginal risk
was extended back across these areas to be more similar to the day
1 period given the similar overall conditions day 2.

...Mid MS Valley, OH Valley into New England...
Similar to the day 1 period, an axis of above average PW values
will stretch along the slow moving front stretching from the Mid MS
Valley, OH Valley into New England. There is good model consensus
on a broad region of moderate to locally heavy precip amounts along
this front. Only some minor changes to reflect the latest model
qpf axis consensus made to the previous broad marginal risk area
across these regions.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...2030Z Update...

The prior forecast remains on track with respect to the Southern
Plains eastward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
with only minor areal adjustments based on the latest 12Z
guidance. Further north, forecast rainfall totals have come down in
New England, with guidance now suggestive of only some relatively
isolated totals around 1". Have maintained a Marginal Risk for now
but given the lower totals and more progressive nature of the cold
front Saturday, a threat for even isolated flooding may not
ultimately materialize and will be re-evaluatd in subsequent
outlooks.

Putnam

...Previous Forecast...

The second round of height falls moving into the Central to
Southern Plains day 2 will continue to push east southeast toward
the Mid to Lower MS Valley, OH and TN Valleys. Upper difluence is
forecast to be well defined Saturday into Saturday night/early
Sunday in an axis of above average PW values that will remain along
the west to east oriented frontal boundary across these areas.
This should support potential for another round of organized
convection along this front. There is some spread with the qpf
axes, but consensus that heavy amounts are possible along this
front. The previous slight risk area was expanded eastward
considerably from eastern OK, across much of AR, western TN and
northern MS.

...Northern New England...
A sharpening northern stream trof will push surface low pressure
across northern New England on Sunday. There is fairly good model
consensus for moderate to locally heavy precip totals across
northern New England. Only some slight changes to the previous
marginal risk area, extending it into all of northern Maine to
cover the model qpf spread.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58PM3lYvXPLgB0VLwWVGUSax1kTudsU1hgPTPAtj7R95= UACbR97VBZkYpeIdEEOo2uOjIplV2bqsafLYo7Z0mZuBLOM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58PM3lYvXPLgB0VLwWVGUSax1kTudsU1hgPTPAtj7R95= UACbR97VBZkYpeIdEEOo2uOjIplV2bqsafLYo7Z0yNHPe4A$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58PM3lYvXPLgB0VLwWVGUSax1kTudsU1hgPTPAtj7R95= UACbR97VBZkYpeIdEEOo2uOjIplV2bqsafLYo7Z0KJfFdG0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 060817
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 06 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, THE LOWER OHIO, LOWER TENNESSEE AND=20
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND FROM EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...

...South-Central Plains.....
There is a strong model signal for another round of organized
convection late Friday afternoon into Friday night/early hours of
Saturday across the south-central plains as additional shortwave=20
energy is forecast to drop east southeastward from the Central=20
Rockies into the Central to Southern Plains Friday into Friday=20
night/early Saturday. The low level flow is expected to again
strengthen into the west to east oriented frontal zone across the
Southern Plains, supporting potential for another round of=20
organized convection in the vicinity of this front. PW values=20
along this front will remain above average...2+ standard deviations
above the mean, supporting heavy precip potential. There is fairly
good model consensus for an axis of heavy rains along this front=20
from far southeast CO/far southwest KS, across much of OK into the
OK/KS/MO/AR border region. The slight risk was drawn to fit the
axis of the highest HREF neighborhood probabilities for 2"+ amounts
and the HREF EAS axis of highest probabilities for 1"+ amounts. The
next round of organized convection will likely track along the same
areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall late Thursday
evening into early Friday.

...Mid Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, Lower Tennessee=20
Valley...
The lead area of shortwave energy initiating current early morning
convection across the Southern Plains will be pushing toward the=20
Mid Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys=20
Friday afternoon/evening. Similar to areas upstream along the west=20
to east oriented frontal zone that extends into the Mid MS, Lower=20
OH,Lower TN Valley, PW values will be above average, 2+ standard=20
deviations above the mean. Convection likely to enhance Friday=20 afternoon/evening ahead of these height falls in the much above=20
average PW axis, supporting heavy rain potential and localized=20
flooding issues. A slight risk area was added from the previous=20
issuance, aligned with where the axis of the highest HREF=20
neighborhood probabilities for 2"+ amounts and the HREF EAS axis of
highest probabilities for 1"+ amounts are forecast.

...Southern Great Basin into the Central to Southern Rockies...
Not a lot of changes expected to the large scale flow across the=20
southern Great Basin into the Central Rockies. PW values forecast=20
to remain above average with additional shortwave energy moving=20
across the region in the west south west flow aloft. This should=20
support another day of widespread scattered convection and=20
localized heavy rain and isolated runoff issues. No significant
changes made to the previous marginal risk area across this region.

...East-central New York into Central New England...=20
A slight risk area was added for portions of east-central New York
State into central New England from central to southern New=20
Hampshire, across southeast Vermont, western Massachusetts into=20
east central NY state. There is good agreement in the last hi res=20
guidance for enhancing convection in the 1800 UTC Friday to 0000=20
UTC Saturday period in the axis of above average PW values along=20
the slow moving frontal boundary draped across this area. The=20
slight risk was drawn to fit where the axis of high HREF=20
neighborhood probabilities are for 2 & 3"+ totals. This corresponds
also to where the HREF hourly probabilities for 1"+ totals are=20
high in the 1800 UTC Friday to 0000 UTC Saturday period.=20

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...Lower Arkansas, Lower Mississippi and Lower Tennessee Valleys..
The second round of height falls moving into the Central to
Southern Plains day 1 will continue to push east southeast toward=20
the Mid to Lower MS Valley, OH and TN Valleys during day 2. Upper=20
difluence is forecast to be well defined Saturday into Saturday=20
night/early Sunday in an axis of above average PW values that will=20
remain along the west to east oriented frontal boundary across=20
these areas. This should support potential for another round of=20
organized convection along this front. There is some spread with=20
the qpf axes, but consensus that heavy amounts are possible along=20
this front. The slight risk area was extended approximately 50m to
100 miles farther to the southeast across northern MS and northern
AL to cover the current model spread.

...East central NY State into Central to Northern New England...
Another round of convection possible early day 2 along the frontal
boundary pushing through the northeast as a sharpening northern=20
stream trof pushes eastward across northern NY into New England.=20
The HREF neighborhood probabilities for the 12 hour period from=20
1200 UTC Saturday to 0000 UTC Sunday, are high along this front for
1 and 2"+ amounts. The previous marginal risk area was extended=20
farther west into east central NY state to cover these higher 12=20
hour probabilities. There may need to be an upgrade to the risk=20
level in future issuances depending upon where the heavy rains=20
occur during day 1.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma...
Additional shortwave energy likely to push east southeastward late
Sunday afternoon/evening from the lee of the Central to Southern=20
Rockies into the Southern Plains. This will again re-strengthen=20
the low level flow into the west to east oriented front forecast to
remain across the Southern Plains, supporting another round of=20
organized convection along the front. There is fairly good=20
agreement on the day 3 qpf axes in the models. resulting in good=20
continuity with the slight risk area. The marginal risk area was=20
extended farther to the northwest into southeast Colorado to cover=20
the model qpf spread.
=20
...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern-Central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic...

Broadly diffluent mid to upper level flow expected day 3 ahead of
the height falls pushing out of the Mid to Lower MS Valley, TN and
OH Valley region. With PW values expected to be above average...1.5
to 2+ standard deviations above the mean...widespread scattered
convection possible from the Lower MS Valley, across the Southern
to Central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. The previous
marginal risk area that was across the South was extended north
through the Southern to Central Appalachians and into the Mid-
Atlantic across the lower FFG values.


Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!77T76gXyvfEfB_VlpAqYYQvYyYB-T-tcn3VCCm1CHHLd= L4fnR-DsjMsPzRkPZQkxo8Ew414LtCwkh25GC9mCdPtx_1U$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!77T76gXyvfEfB_VlpAqYYQvYyYB-T-tcn3VCCm1CHHLd= L4fnR-DsjMsPzRkPZQkxo8Ew414LtCwkh25GC9mCGFdk-O4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!77T76gXyvfEfB_VlpAqYYQvYyYB-T-tcn3VCCm1CHHLd= L4fnR-DsjMsPzRkPZQkxo8Ew414LtCwkh25GC9mC-TAcK_c$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 061556
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1156 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jun 06 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER OHIO, LOWER TENNESSEE AND MIDDLE=20
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND NEW ENGLAND...

16Z Update...=20
Prior discussion remains valid outside of a few changes based on
morning guidance. Overall, a stationary boundary stretching over
2000 miles from the Northeast to the Southwest will provide a focus
for numerous convective complexes of varying size and magnitude.
Widely scattered instances of flash flooding can be expected with
the potential for locally considerable impacts.

A SLGT risk was added for the LUB CWA in western TX along with the
expanded MRGL along the dry line to the TX Big Bend. Similar setup
to yesterday is expected to compound the potential for isolated to
scattered flash flooding, particularly if developing HP supercells
this afternoon impact urban regions with 2-5" totals.=20

Additionally, the SLGT risk across New England was expanded a bit=20
based on current radar and satellite trends showing a shortwave=20
passing over the Interior Northeast that will help spark=20
thunderstorm activity along an east- west oriented stationary front
extending through southern New England into central PA. 12Z HREF=20
and most 12Z CAMs are particularly impressive with the high-end=20
potential over NH given slow-moving convection initiating off the=20
higher elevations. 12Z HREF probabilities for greater than 5" are=20
as high as 25% across parts of NH.

For the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, the SLGT risk was expanded
eastward into eastern KY based on latest radar trends as a potent
MCV over southern MO riding along the stationary front draped over
the Ohio Valley. See MPD 308 for more information. 12Z HREF was not
overly impressive in magnitude across this region for 2"+ amounts,
but coverage is expected to widespread enough to lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Snell


Previous Discussion...

...South-Central Plains.....
There is a strong model signal for another round of organized
convection late Friday afternoon into Friday night/early hours of
Saturday across the south-central plains as additional shortwave
energy is forecast to drop east southeastward from the Central
Rockies into the Central to Southern Plains Friday into Friday
night/early Saturday. The low level flow is expected to again
strengthen into the west to east oriented frontal zone across the
Southern Plains, supporting potential for another round of
organized convection in the vicinity of this front. PW values
along this front will remain above average...2+ standard deviations
above the mean, supporting heavy precip potential. There is fairly
good model consensus for an axis of heavy rains along this front
from far southeast CO/far southwest KS, across much of OK into the
OK/KS/MO/AR border region. The slight risk was drawn to fit the
axis of the highest HREF neighborhood probabilities for 2"+ amounts
and the HREF EAS axis of highest probabilities for 1"+ amounts. The
next round of organized convection will likely track along the same
areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall late Thursday
evening into early Friday for northern OK, compounding the
potential flash flooding concerns and leading to the potential for
more widespread and considerable impacts overnight.

...Mid Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, Lower Tennessee
Valley...
The lead area of shortwave energy initiating current early morning
convection across the Southern Plains will be pushing toward the
Mid Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys
Friday afternoon/evening. Similar to areas upstream along the west
to east oriented frontal zone that extends into the Mid MS, Lower
OH,Lower TN Valley, PW values will be above average, 2+ standard
deviations above the mean. Convection likely to enhance Friday afternoon/evening ahead of these height falls in the much above
average PW axis, supporting heavy rain potential and localized
flooding issues. A slight risk area was added from the previous
issuance, aligned with where the axis of the highest HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 2"+ amounts and the HREF EAS axis of
highest probabilities for 1"+ amounts are forecast.

...Southern Great Basin into the Central to Southern Rockies...
Not a lot of changes expected to the large scale flow across the
southern Great Basin into the Central Rockies. PW values forecast
to remain above average with additional shortwave energy moving
across the region in the west south west flow aloft. This should
support another day of widespread scattered convection and
localized heavy rain and isolated runoff issues. No significant
changes made to the previous marginal risk area across this region.

...East-central New York into Central New England...
A slight risk area was added for portions of east-central New York
State into central New England from central to southern New
Hampshire, across southeast Vermont, western Massachusetts into
east central NY state. There is good agreement in the last hi res
guidance for enhancing convection in the 1800 UTC Friday to 0000
UTC Saturday period in the axis of above average PW values along
the slow moving frontal boundary draped across this area. The
slight risk was drawn to fit where the axis of high HREF
neighborhood probabilities are for 2 & 3"+ totals. This corresponds
also to where the HREF hourly probabilities for 1"+ totals are
high in the 1800 UTC Friday to 0000 UTC Saturday period.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...Lower Arkansas, Lower Mississippi and Lower Tennessee Valleys..
The second round of height falls moving into the Central to
Southern Plains day 1 will continue to push east southeast toward
the Mid to Lower MS Valley, OH and TN Valleys during day 2. Upper
difluence is forecast to be well defined Saturday into Saturday
night/early Sunday in an axis of above average PW values that will
remain along the west to east oriented frontal boundary across
these areas. This should support potential for another round of
organized convection along this front. There is some spread with
the qpf axes, but consensus that heavy amounts are possible along
this front. The slight risk area was extended approximately 50m to
100 miles farther to the southeast across northern MS and northern
AL to cover the current model spread.

...East central NY State into Central to Northern New England...
Another round of convection possible early day 2 along the frontal
boundary pushing through the northeast as a sharpening northern
stream trof pushes eastward across northern NY into New England.
The HREF neighborhood probabilities for the 12 hour period from
1200 UTC Saturday to 0000 UTC Sunday, are high along this front for
1 and 2"+ amounts. The previous marginal risk area was extended
farther west into east central NY state to cover these higher 12
hour probabilities. There may need to be an upgrade to the risk
level in future issuances depending upon where the heavy rains
occur during day 1.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma...
Additional shortwave energy likely to push east southeastward late
Sunday afternoon/evening from the lee of the Central to Southern
Rockies into the Southern Plains. This will again re-strengthen
the low level flow into the west to east oriented front forecast to
remain across the Southern Plains, supporting another round of
organized convection along the front. There is fairly good
agreement on the day 3 qpf axes in the models. resulting in good
continuity with the slight risk area. The marginal risk area was
extended farther to the northwest into southeast Colorado to cover
the model qpf spread.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern-Central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic...

Broadly diffluent mid to upper level flow expected day 3 ahead of
the height falls pushing out of the Mid to Lower MS Valley, TN and
OH Valley region. With PW values expected to be above average...1.5
to 2+ standard deviations above the mean...widespread scattered
convection possible from the Lower MS Valley, across the Southern
to Central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. The previous
marginal risk area that was across the South was extended north
through the Southern to Central Appalachians and into the Mid-
Atlantic across the lower FFG values.


Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8vVVhpE2WalifTwq_biKxs_HNxASFULPjk_ixf1-s9OT= _XaJh727rbDvfLFohQduTURWVPh6cgGZcLuU9X1wPc3q9lM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8vVVhpE2WalifTwq_biKxs_HNxASFULPjk_ixf1-s9OT= _XaJh727rbDvfLFohQduTURWVPh6cgGZcLuU9X1wcgCywKM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8vVVhpE2WalifTwq_biKxs_HNxASFULPjk_ixf1-s9OT= _XaJh727rbDvfLFohQduTURWVPh6cgGZcLuU9X1w8x3qDFs$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 061944
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jun 06 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER OHIO, LOWER TENNESSEE AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND NEW ENGLAND...

16Z Update...
Prior discussion remains valid outside of a few changes based on
morning guidance. Overall, a stationary boundary stretching over
2000 miles from the Northeast to the Southwest will provide a focus
for numerous convective complexes of varying size and magnitude.
Widely scattered instances of flash flooding can be expected with
the potential for locally considerable impacts.

A SLGT risk was added for the LUB CWA in western TX along with the
expanded MRGL along the dry line to the TX Big Bend. Similar setup
to yesterday is expected to compound the potential for isolated to
scattered flash flooding, particularly if developing HP supercells
this afternoon impact urban regions with 2-5" totals.

Additionally, the SLGT risk across New England was expanded a bit
based on current radar and satellite trends showing a shortwave
passing over the Interior Northeast that will help spark
thunderstorm activity along an east- west oriented stationary front
extending through southern New England into central PA. 12Z HREF
and most 12Z CAMs are particularly impressive with the high-end
potential over NH given slow-moving convection initiating off the
higher elevations. 12Z HREF probabilities for greater than 5" are
as high as 25% across parts of NH.

For the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, the SLGT risk was expanded
eastward into eastern KY based on latest radar trends as a potent
MCV over southern MO riding along the stationary front draped over
the Ohio Valley. See MPD 308 for more information. 12Z HREF was not
overly impressive in magnitude across this region for 2"+ amounts,
but coverage is expected to widespread enough to lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Snell


Previous Discussion...

...South-Central Plains.....
There is a strong model signal for another round of organized
convection late Friday afternoon into Friday night/early hours of
Saturday across the south-central plains as additional shortwave
energy is forecast to drop east southeastward from the Central
Rockies into the Central to Southern Plains Friday into Friday
night/early Saturday. The low level flow is expected to again
strengthen into the west to east oriented frontal zone across the
Southern Plains, supporting potential for another round of
organized convection in the vicinity of this front. PW values
along this front will remain above average...2+ standard deviations
above the mean, supporting heavy precip potential. There is fairly
good model consensus for an axis of heavy rains along this front
from far southeast CO/far southwest KS, across much of OK into the
OK/KS/MO/AR border region. The slight risk was drawn to fit the
axis of the highest HREF neighborhood probabilities for 2"+ amounts
and the HREF EAS axis of highest probabilities for 1"+ amounts. The
next round of organized convection will likely track along the same
areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall late Thursday
evening into early Friday for northern OK, compounding the
potential flash flooding concerns and leading to the potential for
more widespread and considerable impacts overnight.

...Mid Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, Lower Tennessee
Valley...
The lead area of shortwave energy initiating current early morning
convection across the Southern Plains will be pushing toward the
Mid Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys
Friday afternoon/evening. Similar to areas upstream along the west
to east oriented frontal zone that extends into the Mid MS, Lower
OH,Lower TN Valley, PW values will be above average, 2+ standard
deviations above the mean. Convection likely to enhance Friday afternoon/evening ahead of these height falls in the much above
average PW axis, supporting heavy rain potential and localized
flooding issues. A slight risk area was added from the previous
issuance, aligned with where the axis of the highest HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 2"+ amounts and the HREF EAS axis of
highest probabilities for 1"+ amounts are forecast.

...Southern Great Basin into the Central to Southern Rockies...
Not a lot of changes expected to the large scale flow across the
southern Great Basin into the Central Rockies. PW values forecast
to remain above average with additional shortwave energy moving
across the region in the west south west flow aloft. This should
support another day of widespread scattered convection and
localized heavy rain and isolated runoff issues. No significant
changes made to the previous marginal risk area across this region.

...East-central New York into Central New England...
A slight risk area was added for portions of east-central New York
State into central New England from central to southern New
Hampshire, across southeast Vermont, western Massachusetts into
east central NY state. There is good agreement in the last hi res
guidance for enhancing convection in the 1800 UTC Friday to 0000
UTC Saturday period in the axis of above average PW values along
the slow moving frontal boundary draped across this area. The
slight risk was drawn to fit where the axis of high HREF
neighborhood probabilities are for 2 & 3"+ totals. This corresponds
also to where the HREF hourly probabilities for 1"+ totals are
high in the 1800 UTC Friday to 0000 UTC Saturday period.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...Eastern Oklahoma and Northeast Texas to Central/Northern
Alabama...
The second round of height falls moving into the Central
to Southern Plains day 1 will continue to push east southeast=20
toward the Mid to Lower MS Valley, OH and TN Valleys during day 2.=20
Upper difluence is forecast to be well defined Saturday into=20
Saturday night/early Sunday in an axis of above average PW values=20
that will remain along the west to east oriented frontal boundary=20
across these areas. This should support potential for another round
of organized convection along this front as well as near a well-
defined mid-level circulation passing to the north into the Ohio
Valley. There is some spread with the qpf axes, but consensus that
heavy amounts are possible. The inherited Slight Risk area was=20
shifted a bit south and removed from most of TN given southern=20
trends with the early morning MCS and related redevelopment along=20
the associated lingering outflow boundary through the early evening
into northeast TX.

...Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
Mid-level wave ejecting out of the central Plains Saturday morning
will continue to push eastward across the Ohio Valley. This
feature will aid in increased moisture return and shear to provide
for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The inherited
Marginal Risk was expanded northward to capture this trend of more precipitation attached to the mid-level low. A Slight Risk may be=20
necessary across the Ohio Valley from southern IL to northern KY=20
and southern OH, but this area is conditional on whether enough=20
instability can build ahead of the mid-level shortwave pushing=20
eastward. Should guidance come into better agreement this upgrade=20
may be needed, with latest HREF probs for at least 2"/6-hr up to=20
40%. Antecedent conditions are also rather wet, so that will need
to be considered as well with current convection for the next
overnight update.

...Northeast PA through New England...
Another round of convection possible early day 2 along the frontal
boundary pushing through the northeast as a sharpening northern=20
stream trof pushes eastward across northern NY into New England.=20
The HREF neighborhood probabilities for the 12 hour period from=20
1200 UTC Saturday to 0000 UTC Sunday, are high along this front for
1 and 2"+ amounts. The previous marginal risk area was extended=20
farther west into northeast PA to cover these higher 12 hour=20
probabilities. There may need to be an upgrade to the risk level in
future issuances depending upon where the heavy rains occur during
day 1.

Snell/Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN=20
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...Southern Plains to the Southeast...
Additional shortwave energy likely to push east southeastward late
Sunday afternoon/evening from the lee of the Central to Southern=20
Rockies into the Southern Plains under the influence of a much
stronger upper level low centered over the north-central United
States. This will again re- strengthen the low level flow into the
west to east oriented front forecast to remain across the Southern
Plains, supporting another round of organized convection along the
front. There is fairly good agreement on the day 3 qpf axes in the
models. Resulting in good continuity with the slight risk area=20
with only a subtle expansion and south shift where widespread rainfall
amounts of 2-4" are expected and higher amounts possible.=20
Additional thunderstorm activity is expected from early morning=20
convection and afternoon redevelopment along the frontal boundary=20
through the Southeast, with mostly isolated flash flooding=20
concerns.

...Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley...

Meanwhile, the mid-level wave progressing across the Ohio Valley on
day 2 will continue into the central Appalachians and northern
Mid-Atlantic while interacting with a lingering frontal boundary.
This will produce additional areas of scattered areas of convection
and the potential for isolated instances of flash flooding within
typically sensitive terrain. There remains higher than average
uncertainty regarding the speed of this system, which could impact
the eventual flash flood risk area.


Snell/Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4wJlP-pBzTQQ-hBjPQfe6UauP6A8H_VP-jiV7rOOWyae= GSs0TeGr5pK0gDhiq4tfhFQB_Y8G620U3T1AaDZBtlRXCbI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4wJlP-pBzTQQ-hBjPQfe6UauP6A8H_VP-jiV7rOOWyae= GSs0TeGr5pK0gDhiq4tfhFQB_Y8G620U3T1AaDZB_PG55Hk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4wJlP-pBzTQQ-hBjPQfe6UauP6A8H_VP-jiV7rOOWyae= GSs0TeGr5pK0gDhiq4tfhFQB_Y8G620U3T1AaDZBpist2Os$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 070813
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...

The next round of shortwave energy pushing into the Central to
Southern Plains early Saturday morning will progress into the Lower
MO Valley/Mid MS Valley/OH Valley region during the day Saturday.
This upper trof will become more negatively tilted with a well
defined area of upper difluence pushing eastward. Convection=20
likely to enhance in this broad upper difluence region where PW=20
values will remain 1.5 to 2+ standard deviations above the mean
across a large region from the OH Valley, south into the Mid to=20
Lower MS Valley and TN Valley. Across the northern portions of the=20 precipitation area from the Lower OH/Mid MS Valley region,=20
consensus is for the next round of precip to fall just to the north
of where the heavy amounts fell over the past 24 hours. This=20
should reduce the risk of runoff issues. Given that there is not=20
expected to be a significant overlap of day 1 precip with the=20
previous 24 hours observed precip, the risk level was kept as=20
marginal here.

Farther to the south, not a lot of changes made to the broad slight
risk area from the Lower AR, Lower MS Valley, east into northern MS
and northern AL. The slight risk area continues to fit well with
the axis of high HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1 and 2"+
amounts this period. There may be more than 1 round of convection
to move across this region. The initial, early day 1 from the
convection currently enhancing over the Southern Plains, followed
by a second round late Saturday afternoon along the surface frontal
boundary. With each round of convection, hourly rainfall totals of
.50-1"+ possible.

...Southeast NY State into New England...=20
Another round of convection likely day 1 along the frontal=20
boundary pushing through the northeast as a sharpening northern=20
stream trof pushes across the Northeast. A slight risk area was
introduced from the previous issuance to correspond to where there
is an overlap between heavy precip from Friday afternoon and
expected additional heavy precip between 1500 UTC Sat and 0000 UTC
Sun. This corresponds to an area from north central MA, across=20
southern NH into southwest ME. In this region the latest HREF=20
probabilities for .50 and 1"+ hourly amounts are fairly high and=20
where soils have become increasingly saturated.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...Southern Plains to the Southeast...
The latest guidance remains consistent in showing additional=20
shortwave energy pushing east southeastward late Sunday=20
afternoon/evening from the lee of the Central to Southern Rockies=20
into the Southern Plains in the northwest flow on the south side=20
of a stronger upper level low centered over the north-central=20
United States. This will again re-strengthen the low level flow=20
into the west to east oriented front forecast to remain across the=20
Southern Plains, supporting another round of organized convection=20
along the front. There continues to be fairly good agreement on=20
the potential for an axes of heavy precip day 2, resulting in good
continuity with the slight risk area with only some small changes
to reflect the latest forecasts. This next round of organized
convection will likely be fairly progressive, similar to what
occurred farther to the north Thursday night into early Friday and
Friday night into early Saturday. Still, there is likelihood of=20
widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" with localized amounts up to=20
4". Soils are not as saturated as areas farther north, but=20
localized runoff issues are still likely.

...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
The negatively tilted shortwave coming out of the OH Valley late=20
day 1 will push across the Central Appalachians into the Mid-
Atlantic day 2. There is a fair amount of spread with model qpfs,=20
but a signal for the potential for locally heavy rains in the=20
continued well defined area of upper difluence ahead of these=20
height falls in an axis of above average PW values...1.5 to 2+=20
standard deviations above the mean. There were only some minor=20
changes made to the previous marginal risk across the Central=20
Appalachians into the Mid- Atlantic, continuing to center it across
areas that have lower ffg values.


Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

There is good agreement in the latest guidance with the slow
eastward push of the closed low through the Upper Lakes day 3 and
the broad upper troffing extending south of this center through the
MS and OH Valleys. A broad region of above average PW values will
continue to stretch across the southern tier from the Southern
Plains, east across the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast
along and ahead of the lead west to east oriented front. Another
axis of above average PW values will push northeastward across the
TN and OH Valleys into the Lower Lakes ahead of a secondary front
rotating through the cyclonic flow on the southeast side of the
strong closed low over the Upper Lakes. Along each frontal
boundary, widespread moderate to locally heavy precip totals are
likely. Model agreement, however, is not great with placement of
maximum amounts, leading to overall low confidence in where
anything but a marginal risk could be drawn. Overall, the previous
broad marginal risk area fits well with the latest model qpf
spread, with no significant changes made to previous outlook for
the new day 3 outlook.


Oravec

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8xOB7VqGX4DFrq84MeZJKpGwWHkJJJzTp1pDgz3yIahp= Sfw87igisJhDTx4nDydijzKynmlYn_nN2LMs-3oaVfjTg8o$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8xOB7VqGX4DFrq84MeZJKpGwWHkJJJzTp1pDgz3yIahp= Sfw87igisJhDTx4nDydijzKynmlYn_nN2LMs-3oapRuHtus$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8xOB7VqGX4DFrq84MeZJKpGwWHkJJJzTp1pDgz3yIahp= Sfw87igisJhDTx4nDydijzKynmlYn_nN2LMs-3oa_bcH_Oc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 071520
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH SLIGHT RISKS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND MID-SOUTH...

An active day of heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected
across a large portion of the eastern United States, with the
Marginal Risk area now encompassing the majority of the land area
in the CONUS east of 95W longitude. This is due to a broad region
of near to above normal tropospheric moisture (via PW anomalies)
and sufficient instability for convective rain bands and
thunderstorms.

Generally, the broad zone of heavy rainfall risk can be divided
into three main areas of concern, all indicated by a regional-scale
Slight Risk maximum now:

1. In the Northeast, where low-topped convection has organized into
narrow bands of efficient heavy rainfall. MRMS analysis indicates
almost no ice present in these convective bands, with 30 dBZ echo
tops generally shy of the -10C level. In other words, warm rain
processes are dominant and any organized convective rain band could
produce localized heavy rainfall. The area of greatest concern is
probably from active area of flash flooding in the Hudson Valley
near Albany, NY eastward through Massachusetts and northern
Connecticut to the Boston metro area. There should naturally be=20
increasing low-level convergence with the existing front draped=20
across the region, and increasing easterly flow near the coast=20
around the north side of the offshore low. Aloft, a coupled jet=20
structure should lead to enough divergence to focus convection.

2. The Ohio River Valley region, particularly the middle and upper
Ohio Valley from late this afternoon well into the overnight hours.
This will be due to scattered convective rain bands and perhaps
some thunderstorms developing in advance of an eastward propagating
mid-upper level wave, and developing surface low by this afternoon,
currently centered over IA- MO. This should allow for some
organized convective bands in the warm air advection regime. Model
forecast soundings show increasing PWs to near or above the 90th
percentile for early June and tall, skinny CAPE profiles that are a
good match for efficient, low-topped convective flash flood events.
Of particular concern will be the potential for flash flooding
overnight in the central Appalachian region from eastern Kentucky
and southeast Ohio into West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania.
Models show southwest low-level inflow increasing into the
mountains in a very moist environment, with the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak providing divergence aloft. All
of this should support an organized heavy rain threat and the
structure of the instability profile will keep convection low-
topped and dominated by warm rain processes. Locally significant
flash flooding will be possible given the terrain in the area and
relatively wet antecedent conditions.

3. Across the mid-South where a forward propagating MCS has already
generated some flash flooding in central Arkansas, but appears to
begin accelerating. Renewed development and/or stalling and
training will be possible along the southern periphery of the cold
pool later today, and hi-res models do show localized corridors of
heavy rainfall that would be sufficient to cause flash flooding.
The Slight Risk was shifted south to account for observational
trends indicating the current position of the cold pool and
convective line, and the projected motion over the next few
hours.

Lamers


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...Southern Plains to the Southeast...
The latest guidance remains consistent in showing additional
shortwave energy pushing east southeastward late Sunday
afternoon/evening from the lee of the Central to Southern Rockies
into the Southern Plains in the northwest flow on the south side
of a stronger upper level low centered over the north-central
United States. This will again re-strengthen the low level flow
into the west to east oriented front forecast to remain across the
Southern Plains, supporting another round of organized convection
along the front. There continues to be fairly good agreement on
the potential for an axes of heavy precip day 2, resulting in good
continuity with the slight risk area with only some small changes
to reflect the latest forecasts. This next round of organized
convection will likely be fairly progressive, similar to what
occurred farther to the north Thursday night into early Friday and
Friday night into early Saturday. Still, there is likelihood of
widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" with localized amounts up to
4". Soils are not as saturated as areas farther north, but
localized runoff issues are still likely.

...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
The negatively tilted shortwave coming out of the OH Valley late
day 1 will push across the Central Appalachians into the Mid-
Atlantic day 2. There is a fair amount of spread with model qpfs,
but a signal for the potential for locally heavy rains in the
continued well defined area of upper difluence ahead of these
height falls in an axis of above average PW values...1.5 to 2+
standard deviations above the mean. There were only some minor
changes made to the previous marginal risk across the Central
Appalachians into the Mid- Atlantic, continuing to center it across
areas that have lower ffg values.


Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

There is good agreement in the latest guidance with the slow
eastward push of the closed low through the Upper Lakes day 3 and
the broad upper troffing extending south of this center through the
MS and OH Valleys. A broad region of above average PW values will
continue to stretch across the southern tier from the Southern
Plains, east across the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast
along and ahead of the lead west to east oriented front. Another
axis of above average PW values will push northeastward across the
TN and OH Valleys into the Lower Lakes ahead of a secondary front
rotating through the cyclonic flow on the southeast side of the
strong closed low over the Upper Lakes. Along each frontal
boundary, widespread moderate to locally heavy precip totals are
likely. Model agreement, however, is not great with placement of
maximum amounts, leading to overall low confidence in where
anything but a marginal risk could be drawn. Overall, the previous
broad marginal risk area fits well with the latest model qpf
spread, with no significant changes made to previous outlook for
the new day 3 outlook.


Oravec

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!94whDg0a3KxU9mSepEt5Ayah1gNWktqb4fyc8EsEhmGZ= 6xgXeBa166o6u_DnoHLf6fed6JvbbW5fq8IAbiNTcT5Ua6U$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!94whDg0a3KxU9mSepEt5Ayah1gNWktqb4fyc8EsEhmGZ= 6xgXeBa166o6u_DnoHLf6fed6JvbbW5fq8IAbiNTgJ_Zfug$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!94whDg0a3KxU9mSepEt5Ayah1gNWktqb4fyc8EsEhmGZ= 6xgXeBa166o6u_DnoHLf6fed6JvbbW5fq8IAbiNTq-WzF0A$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 072012
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH SLIGHT RISKS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND MID-SOUTH...

An active day of heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected
across a large portion of the eastern United States, with the
Marginal Risk area now encompassing the majority of the land area
in the CONUS east of 95W longitude. This is due to a broad region
of near to above normal tropospheric moisture (via PW anomalies)
and sufficient instability for convective rain bands and
thunderstorms.

Generally, the broad zone of heavy rainfall risk can be divided
into three main areas of concern, all indicated by a regional-scale
Slight Risk maximum now:

1. In the Northeast, where low-topped convection has organized into
narrow bands of efficient heavy rainfall. MRMS analysis indicates
almost no ice present in these convective bands, with 30 dBZ echo
tops generally shy of the -10C level. In other words, warm rain
processes are dominant and any organized convective rain band could
produce localized heavy rainfall. The area of greatest concern is
probably from active area of flash flooding in the Hudson Valley
near Albany, NY eastward through Massachusetts and northern
Connecticut to the Boston metro area. There should naturally be
increasing low-level convergence with the existing front draped
across the region, and increasing easterly flow near the coast
around the north side of the offshore low. Aloft, a coupled jet
structure should lead to enough divergence to focus convection.

2. The Ohio River Valley region, particularly the middle and upper
Ohio Valley from late this afternoon well into the overnight hours.
This will be due to scattered convective rain bands and perhaps
some thunderstorms developing in advance of an eastward propagating
mid-upper level wave, and developing surface low by this afternoon,
currently centered over IA- MO. This should allow for some
organized convective bands in the warm air advection regime. Model
forecast soundings show increasing PWs to near or above the 90th
percentile for early June and tall, skinny CAPE profiles that are a
good match for efficient, low-topped convective flash flood events.
Of particular concern will be the potential for flash flooding
overnight in the central Appalachian region from eastern Kentucky
and southeast Ohio into West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania.
Models show southwest low-level inflow increasing into the
mountains in a very moist environment, with the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak providing divergence aloft. All
of this should support an organized heavy rain threat and the
structure of the instability profile will keep convection low-
topped and dominated by warm rain processes. Locally significant
flash flooding will be possible given the terrain in the area and
relatively wet antecedent conditions.

3. Across the mid-South where a forward propagating MCS has already
generated some flash flooding in central Arkansas, but appears to
begin accelerating. Renewed development and/or stalling and
training will be possible along the southern periphery of the cold
pool later today, and hi-res models do show localized corridors of
heavy rainfall that would be sufficient to cause flash flooding.
The Slight Risk was shifted south to account for observational
trends indicating the current position of the cold pool and
convective line, and the projected motion over the next few
hours.

Lamers


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC... AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
The heavy rain and associated flash flood threat is likely to be
ongoing across portions of the region at the beginning of the
outlook period (12 UTC Sunday). Model guidance today has generally
begun to focus the QPF signal across the region such that there is
much better consistency between the global ensembles and hi-res
ensembles (both RRFS experimental ensemble and HREF operational).
Therefore, confidence was sufficiently high to go with a relatively
big departure from the existing more focused Marginal Risk area,=20
and go with a broad Slight Risk. The biggest change was to areas of
eastern Virginia and central Maryland, which previously had ERO
probabilities of less than 5 percent, but hi-res guidance is now
consistently showing some localized maxima in excess of 3 inches
into the coastal plain.

Greatest concern within the Slight Risk area is in the Allegheny
Mountains, Potomac Highlands and Laurel Highlands of northeast=20
West Virginia, the Maryland Panhandle, far southwest Pennsylvania,
as well as the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge Mountain region of
far northwest Virginia. These areas have been very wet lately, with
30-day rainfall double to triple the normal amount, and a
significant portion of the same area received between 1 and 4
inches of rain in the past day or so.

Rainfall may be enhanced in these areas by a subtle southeasterly
low-level jet that should increase between 06 UTC and 18 UTC Sunday
due to a developing low level cyclone ahead of an eastward=20
propagating mid-upper level wave. If the low becomes situated near
the OH-WV border by the beginning of the outlook period, which has
been a trend over the past couple model cycles (along with a deeper
low overall), the LLJ would be likely to be enhanced. This may
create orographic enhancement to the rainfall and could help some
convective features and bands persist for a greater duration where
the orographic enhancement is most pronounced. Any convection is
likely to be low-topped, with model forecast soundings showing a
high melting level (above 12,000 feet) and a low equilibrium level
(between -10C and -20C), with PWs above the 90th percentile for
early June. This would be likely to lead to dominance of=20
efficient, warm rain processes with little to no ice present in the
cloud. This could support rapidly developing flash flooding where=20
convective features can persist.

Meanwhile, further east into the coastal plain and I-95 urban
corridor from Richmond to Baltimore, models have also converged on
an increased heavy rainfall threat. In these areas, greater
instability will be present -- enough to support organized clusters
of thunderstorms that could produce very heavy rain rates at times.
The heavy rain should be less persistent as compared to the
mountainous areas, but that would be offset by higher instantaneous
rain rates. Therefore, these areas were also included in the Slight
Risk and could see some flash flooding impacts.

...Southern Plains to the Southeast...
Fewer changes were made to the existing Day 2 outlook from the
Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region. A Slight Risk remains
centered on North Texas and southern Oklahoma, and many models now
show a rainfall maxima in excess of 3 inches somewhere in the
area. Although a forward propagating MCS may develop with time,
there is enough signal in the model guidance for a corridor of
enhanced QPF that some training of intense convection seems
possible. This would be most likely either via (1) individual cells
and clusters developing near the front ahead of the advancing
convective line and subsequent cell mergers, or (2) slowing or
stalling of the convective line on the southwest periphery of the
developing cold pool. If either of these scenarios develops, flash
flooding would be possible via heavy rainfall sustained for a
couple hours at any one location.

Although the Gulf Coast is not in a Slight Risk at this time, it
will need to be monitored, as some (but not all) recent hi-res
model runs show significant localized rainfall extremes in excess
of 6 inches. An examination of individual model runs indicates this
would be most likely where convective outflows interact with the
coastal convergence zone.

Lamers


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...

Very few changes were made to the existing Marginal Risk, which
encompassed a broad area in the southern and eastern United States
along and ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. The air mass
ahead of the front will be characterized by above normal PWs and
widespread moderate to strong instability. Therefore, a day with
abundant areas of active convection containing relatively high
rain rates is expected. Confidence is not very high at this time in
the detail, particularly where concentrated areas of heavy rainfall
and/or localized extreme events may occur. However, based on
today's model guidance, this seems most likely in the following
locations, where a Slight Risk upgrade may eventually be needed:

1. Eastern Great Lakes and Central Appalachians. Instability is
projected to be more limited in these areas, but recent rainfall
may lead to wet conditions in advance, and there is better model
consensus on areas of over 1 inch QPF.

2. The Gulf Coast. A combination of strong instability and high PWs
would support organized convection and high rain rates, but there
is less model agreement on placement.

3. West Texas into Northeast New Mexico. PWs will be increasing and
quite anomalous (over the 90th percentile) along with fairly strong instability. These areas will be removed from stronger mid-upper
level flow, likely leading to overall slower storm motions.

Lamers

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_4GMDhd9X08RfFh9KZGQ-y9VGRZW2AuWYA9QfmAkOmhR= EAEZ5rPWEscNmJIBB3p_08-XGzi9qkSzlDTBdU0lQjkDNIg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_4GMDhd9X08RfFh9KZGQ-y9VGRZW2AuWYA9QfmAkOmhR= EAEZ5rPWEscNmJIBB3p_08-XGzi9qkSzlDTBdU0ll4MYF-8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_4GMDhd9X08RfFh9KZGQ-y9VGRZW2AuWYA9QfmAkOmhR= EAEZ5rPWEscNmJIBB3p_08-XGzi9qkSzlDTBdU0llI-ypV4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 080046
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE OHIO RIVER=20
VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

01Z Update...

...Midwest and Central Appalachians...
Thunderstorms will continue develop in advance of an eastward=20
moving wave currently along the MO/IL border. This activity should
mainly form along the warm front currently extending from StL
through southern IN and organize a bit in the warm air advection=20
regime. PW increases behind the front to around 1.75", above the=20
90th percentile for early June, along with tall, skinny CAPE=20
profiles per model soundings that will make for efficient, low-=20
topped convection and scattered flash flood events. Of particular=20
concern will be the potential for flash flooding overnight from
central IN along the mid-upper OH Valley through WV. Southwest=20
low- level inflow increases over the terrain in the very moist=20
environment with the right entrance region of an upper level jet=20
streak providing divergence aloft. Locally significant flash=20
flooding will be possible given the terrain and relatively wet=20
antecedent conditions of the Slight Risk area.

...Mid-South through Southeast...
Forward propagating MCS pushes east over SC this evening with fast
motion. The leading cells that developed ahead of the line when it
was over GA are not occurring as much over SC, so the associated
flash flood threat is low overnight.

The next line of activity has developed across south-central AR and
is moving close to its orientation axis, causing repeating cells.
This will continue until enough cold pool can develop to begin a
propagation southeast into LA and over north-central MS/AL which
continues rest of the overnight. Despite dry antecedent conditions
and high FFG, the Slight Risk is maintained for potential for 2-4"
rainfall with high hourly rates and potential scattered instances
of flash flooding.

...Southern Plains...
Third consecutive night of supercells from the south-central High
Plains developing and shifting southeast. Expanded a Marginal Risk
from North Texas to these cells based on current motion and CAM
guidance like recent runs of the RRFS which maintain this activity
through tonight. This swath is mainly between the heaviest rain
from last night, but there is an isolated flash flood threat as
this activity propagates southeast.


...Northeast...
Low pressure has shifted well east of New England bringing rainfall
with it. Some heavy rain remains along the front over Long Island,
though the rates are not excessive. The EROs in the Northeast have
been removed.


Lamers/Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC... AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
The heavy rain and associated flash flood threat is likely to be
ongoing across portions of the region at the beginning of the
outlook period (12 UTC Sunday). Model guidance today has generally
begun to focus the QPF signal across the region such that there is
much better consistency between the global ensembles and hi-res
ensembles (both RRFS experimental ensemble and HREF operational).
Therefore, confidence was sufficiently high to go with a relatively
big departure from the existing more focused Marginal Risk area,
and go with a broad Slight Risk. The biggest change was to areas of
eastern Virginia and central Maryland, which previously had ERO
probabilities of less than 5 percent, but hi-res guidance is now
consistently showing some localized maxima in excess of 3 inches
into the coastal plain.

Greatest concern within the Slight Risk area is in the Allegheny
Mountains, Potomac Highlands and Laurel Highlands of northeast
West Virginia, the Maryland Panhandle, far southwest Pennsylvania,
as well as the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge Mountain region of
far northwest Virginia. These areas have been very wet lately, with
30-day rainfall double to triple the normal amount, and a
significant portion of the same area received between 1 and 4
inches of rain in the past day or so.

Rainfall may be enhanced in these areas by a subtle southeasterly
low-level jet that should increase between 06 UTC and 18 UTC Sunday
due to a developing low level cyclone ahead of an eastward
propagating mid-upper level wave. If the low becomes situated near
the OH-WV border by the beginning of the outlook period, which has
been a trend over the past couple model cycles (along with a deeper
low overall), the LLJ would be likely to be enhanced. This may
create orographic enhancement to the rainfall and could help some
convective features and bands persist for a greater duration where
the orographic enhancement is most pronounced. Any convection is
likely to be low-topped, with model forecast soundings showing a
high melting level (above 12,000 feet) and a low equilibrium level
(between -10C and -20C), with PWs above the 90th percentile for
early June. This would be likely to lead to dominance of
efficient, warm rain processes with little to no ice present in the
cloud. This could support rapidly developing flash flooding where
convective features can persist.

Meanwhile, further east into the coastal plain and I-95 urban
corridor from Richmond to Baltimore, models have also converged on
an increased heavy rainfall threat. In these areas, greater
instability will be present -- enough to support organized clusters
of thunderstorms that could produce very heavy rain rates at times.
The heavy rain should be less persistent as compared to the
mountainous areas, but that would be offset by higher instantaneous
rain rates. Therefore, these areas were also included in the Slight
Risk and could see some flash flooding impacts.

...Southern Plains to the Southeast...
Fewer changes were made to the existing Day 2 outlook from the
Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region. A Slight Risk remains
centered on North Texas and southern Oklahoma, and many models now
show a rainfall maxima in excess of 3 inches somewhere in the
area. Although a forward propagating MCS may develop with time,
there is enough signal in the model guidance for a corridor of
enhanced QPF that some training of intense convection seems
possible. This would be most likely either via (1) individual cells
and clusters developing near the front ahead of the advancing
convective line and subsequent cell mergers, or (2) slowing or
stalling of the convective line on the southwest periphery of the
developing cold pool. If either of these scenarios develops, flash
flooding would be possible via heavy rainfall sustained for a
couple hours at any one location.

Although the Gulf Coast is not in a Slight Risk at this time, it
will need to be monitored, as some (but not all) recent hi-res
model runs show significant localized rainfall extremes in excess
of 6 inches. An examination of individual model runs indicates this
would be most likely where convective outflows interact with the
coastal convergence zone.

Lamers


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS A LARGE=20
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...

Very few changes were made to the existing Marginal Risk, which
encompassed a broad area in the southern and eastern United States
along and ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. The air mass
ahead of the front will be characterized by above normal PWs and
widespread moderate to strong instability. Therefore, a day with
abundant areas of active convection containing relatively high
rain rates is expected. Confidence is not very high at this time in
the detail, particularly where concentrated areas of heavy rainfall
and/or localized extreme events may occur. However, based on
today's model guidance, this seems most likely in the following
locations, where a Slight Risk upgrade may eventually be needed:

1. Eastern Great Lakes and Central Appalachians. Instability is
projected to be more limited in these areas, but recent rainfall
may lead to wet conditions in advance, and there is better model
consensus on areas of over 1 inch QPF.

2. The Gulf Coast. A combination of strong instability and high PWs
would support organized convection and high rain rates, but there
is less model agreement on placement.

3. West Texas into Northeast New Mexico. PWs will be increasing and
quite anomalous (over the 90th percentile) along with fairly=20
strong instability. These areas will be removed from stronger mid-
upper level flow, likely leading to overall slower storm motions.

Lamers

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68MVeN01KxIOgEs6ioVF0ddvyj0xe4hC0yd2gmxYpb09= 5yFxWyKE_1AYTz-1_llTL5oLRAN5oppO_dkJe9O65z18gjM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68MVeN01KxIOgEs6ioVF0ddvyj0xe4hC0yd2gmxYpb09= 5yFxWyKE_1AYTz-1_llTL5oLRAN5oppO_dkJe9O6fJZs-tE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68MVeN01KxIOgEs6ioVF0ddvyj0xe4hC0yd2gmxYpb09= 5yFxWyKE_1AYTz-1_llTL5oLRAN5oppO_dkJe9O6_1SbK4U$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 080808
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...Southern Plains...

A southward moving upper level shortwave rounding the western
periphery of a potent upper level low will support a strong cold
front tracking south across the central Plains this afternoon and
evening. Meanwhile, ample Gulf moisture in place across Texas and
along the Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold
front, drawn to the front my the pressure differential. The result
of these clashing air masses will be widespread convective=20
development, partially aided further by the dry line, across the=20
Panhandles and western Oklahoma mid-to-late afternoon. In addition=20
to significant severe potential with the abundant shear in the area
from these clashing boundaries, the storms will be moving over a=20
very sensitive area for soil moisture due to numerous rounds of=20
recent rainfall across the Panhandles and the Red River Valley.=20
This supports the continuance of the Slight Risk across much of the
region, including a higher-end Slight in and around the Wichita=20
Falls, TX area. The higher-end risk is due in part to some CAMs=20
agreement for additional training and cell mergers in the early=20
evening.

As is fairly typical of areas of strong thunderstorms and
supercells, their merger into a single area of storms should
accompany a faster forward speed, which should gradually decrease
the flash flooding potential across the region into the overnight
hours tonight. There is much greater disagreement as to whether
additional shower and thunderstorm activity will develop behind the
area of storms, which are very likely to set up along a preexisting
cold-pool boundary. The coverage and intensity of the storms is
highly uncertain, but a preponderance of the guidance suggesting
the storms will develop and track southeastward over many of the
same areas, particularly on the Texas side of the state line, could
support a higher flash flooding threat. While the issuance of an
upgraded Moderate Risk for these areas is not out of the question,
it will likely take seeing the whites of the storms' eyes to have
the confidence for such an upgrade. This will also be highly
dependent on how the storms behave with the initial MCS development
over these areas.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A developing upper level shortwave will team up with a surface low
and associated showers and a few storms early this morning across
the Mid-Atlantic. With daytime heating and advection of additional
moisture and instability, expect the rainfall across the area to
become increasingly convective across the Slight Risk area. These
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall with potential for widely
scattered flash flooding. This portion of the Mid-Atlantic is also
very sensitive to heavy rainfall due to recent heavy rains over the
past week or so. Topographic concerns will also be present as the
mountains funnel any heavy rain quickly into the adjacent river
valleys. Expect the heaviest rainfall to occur south and west of
the warm front associated with the surface low. There is
considerable uncertainty as to how far north and east the warm
front will get, as the surface low will be weakening due to
interactions with the mountains. Thus, by this afternoon the
instability and moisture supporting the storms will be the primary
forcing supporting their capability of producing heavy rain.=20

Given these aforementioned uncertainties, the inherited Slight Risk
area is largely the same. The biggest change with this update was
to expand the Slight Risk northwestward to include the Pittsburgh
metro area. The heaviest rains are likely to fall along a northwest
to southeast oriented line from Pittsburgh to the Hampton Roads
area of southeast Virginia. There is significant uncertainty around
the DC metro area due to distance from the greatest forcing and how
far north and east the warm front can get, with the most likely
scenario for the DMV area to be missed by the heaviest rains, which
stay south and west. However, given the sensitivities and urban
concerns requiring less rain to produce flash flooding, the Slight
Risk was left in effect for this update in the DC area. Once again
the Virginia suburbs will have the greatest chance of seeing the
most consistent heavy rains.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK...

...Upper Ohio Valley through Central New York...

A potent upper level low over the Great Lakes on Monday will become increasingly negatively tilted through the period as a shortwave
and the low itself begin the process of rejoining the jet stream.
Thus, expect the upper low and any flow around it over the
Northeast to become more southwesterly with time. At the surface, a
strong cold front will rapidly sweep across the Midwest. That front
will be slower-moving in northern areas as the upper level pattern
becomes more amplified. Thus, the storms that will develop ahead of
the cold front will be slower moving from Pennsylvania north into
New York, supporting a higher likelihood for training. Ahead of
this cold front, Gulf moisture will be drawn northeastward,
supported by the increasing upper level forcing as the trough
becomes more negatively tilted by Monday evening.=20

Longer-range CAMs guidance shows multiple rounds of storms tracking
across Pennsylvania and New York through the period, being driven
by different impulses of upper level energy as those shortwave
troughs track more south to north with time. While duration of the
heavier rains will be lesser on Monday across WV, MD, and VA,
expected heavy rainfall from the Day 1/Sunday period in this area
should lower the FFGs in the area by the Day 2/Monday period. Thus,
the Slight Risk includes areas expecting less rainfall on Monday
afternoon. Meanwhile in PA and NY, sensitive soils will still be
present, as well as topographic concerns, so the higher threat for
flash flooding will be into western and central NY.

...Southeast...

Across the Southeast, expect multiple rounds of storms to cross
Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia through the period. The storms
will be supported by periodic passages of shortwave disturbances in
the upper levels, but they will be much further in between
disturbances as compared with areas further north, as the Southeast
will be further from the greatest forcing associated with the low
over the Great Lakes. Partially offsetting this will be the
proximity to the Gulf, which will allow for there to be far more
moisture available for the storms as compared with areas further
north. Soils in this area are around average for moisture content
as there has been some time for the soils to dry out from past
rainfall events. This has allowed FFGs to recover quite a bit, and
the high FFGs will play a big role at tampering the severity and
frequency of instances of flash flooding due to the heavy rains.
Thus, for now, the area remains in a Marginal risk, but will be
evaluated with future updates for upgrade potential.

...Texas...

Significant uncertainty remains in the potential for flash flooding
across Texas on Monday. The cold front impacting much of north
Texas on Sunday will push further south, turning the predominant
flow out of the north across the northern half of the state. This
should allow for advection of drier air. Ample solar heating will
still promote the development of instability, as well as any
evapotranspiration in the area. Thus, expect at least some shower
and thunderstorm activity again on Monday, albeit more likely on
Monday night. Given the sensitivities from heavy rains in this
area, the lesser coverage and duration of storms may still be
enough to eventually need a targeted Slight Risk upgrade between
now and Monday afternoon, but the confidence is not quite there
yet.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...West Texas and New Mexico...

After potentially leftover convection in the early morning hours of
Tuesday from Monday night's convection, much of the day across the
Slight Risk area will be mostly dry. With peak solar heating in the
late afternoon, however, a strengthening subtropical shortwave
ejecting out of the Southwest will interact with the plentiful Gulf
moisture already in place across west Texas. This will result in
widespread convective development Tuesday evening. There is
significant uncertainty however with the nature, coverage, and
strength of the thunderstorms, as well as where and when they will
impact any one area. Given that, and the spread in the guidance,
the Slight Risk was expanded westward into New Mexico to account
for potential development off the Sacramento Mountains, and any dry
line convection. Regardless, there remains enough agreement that
given plentiful recent rainfall and convective activity across West
Texas, this new round of rain should result in widely scattered
instances of flash flooding. This may be start of another period of
daily thunderstorms in this area through the mid-range.

...New England...

Convective activity in this region will be ongoing at the start of
the period and continue through the day as Atlantic moisture is
drawn northward ahead of a NNE moving upper level trough that will
be rejoining the jet stream. The rainfall should be largely over in
New England by Tuesday evening. Given most of the day the rainfall
will be in the cooler, more stable part of the day, expect lesser
rainfall rates. Thus, the inherited Marginal Risk was left
unchanged with this update.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Uqyf66T_Hoo_n9Adt4ahkNOmWiDS7-rkn_tFPjj7XEV= y-blHOaTfTB7jNaByrdbQ7zynaOqUefo9xyS2ZoRdJ57aHE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Uqyf66T_Hoo_n9Adt4ahkNOmWiDS7-rkn_tFPjj7XEV= y-blHOaTfTB7jNaByrdbQ7zynaOqUefo9xyS2ZoR3u-Tb4w$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Uqyf66T_Hoo_n9Adt4ahkNOmWiDS7-rkn_tFPjj7XEV= y-blHOaTfTB7jNaByrdbQ7zynaOqUefo9xyS2ZoRtWz4ij4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 081547
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1147 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...GULF COAST...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians...
Very few changes were made to the existing Day 1 outlook over this
region, with observational trends generally matching earlier
forecasts fairly well. The initial round of rain has moved through
much of the Slight Risk area as of 15 UTC, and has produced a
fairly widespread 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain in much of the area. As
cloud cover partially clears in the wake of the area of stratiform
rain, rapid destabilization is occurring, and this is already
beginning to support convective initiation. Although the PWs may be
slightly lower in this area of clearing, they are still relatively
high (around 1.4 to 1.5 inches) around the 90th percentile for
early June. The combination of the increasingly strong instability
and relatively deep moisture should support hourly rain rates of 1
to 2 inches per hour in the most vigorous and organized convection.
This may lead to flash flooding, particularly in situations where
the rain rates can be sustained for more than an hour, and either
in the mountainous areas of N WV, W MD, SW PA that have been very
wet lately, or in urbanized areas in the coastal plain.

...Gulf Coast...
Training and backbuilding thunderstorm activity has been far more
persistent this morning in portions of E MS and C AL than models
have been indicating. However, 12 UTC hi-res guidance appears to
generally have a better handle on the current mesoscale environment
and state of the convection. There is good agreement that the
convective line itself and/or the associated gust front will make
steady progress toward the coast today, and then begin to stall
later this afternoon or early tonight. This may focus additional
convective clusters and lines later today and tonight, with a
favorable configuration for backbuilding (southwesterly inflow with
an upstream reservoir of strong instability). The combination of
the very high CAPE values, and anomalously high PWs around 2=20
inches, will support very heavy hourly rain rates approaching or
exceeding 2 inches in the most organized convective clusters. If
the gust front interacts with the coastal convergence zone and
anchors convection somewhere near the coastline, heavy rain rates
could persist for several hours and lead to a locally extreme
rainfall event with potential for significant flash flooding.

...Southern Plains...
The heavy rainfall and associated flash flooding threat in this
region is more conditional, given excellent hi-res model agreement
in a very organized, rapidly forward propagating bowing line late
this afternoon and this evening. Although the instantaneous rain
rates in the line itself would be likely to be high, the fast
forward speed would likely mitigate that factor a bit. Corridors of
heavy rainfall in these cases tend to occur either:

1. Near the poleward bookend vortex, which can tend to move slower
and still have relatively high rain rates. In this case, that would
be most likely over portions of SC OK, although the fast forward=20
motion of the line makes it uncertain how impactful this would be=20
from a rainfall perspective.

2. Or along the upshear flank of the cold pool. That seems
plausible in this case, and would be most likely either in far
SW OK or in western N TX. In particular, a corridor of locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding would seem more likely if
convective development occurs near a lingering front in advance of
the main forward propagating MCS, thereby increasing the duration
of the heavy rainfall. However, it's unclear whether this
antecedent development and the eventual gust front location will be co-located.=20

Therefore, the Slight Risk was maintained given these
uncertainties, and was only nudged slightly to the southwest to
account for latest observational data trends and hi-res guidance.

Lamers


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK...

...Upper Ohio Valley through Central New York...

A potent upper level low over the Great Lakes on Monday will become increasingly negatively tilted through the period as a shortwave
and the low itself begin the process of rejoining the jet stream.
Thus, expect the upper low and any flow around it over the
Northeast to become more southwesterly with time. At the surface, a
strong cold front will rapidly sweep across the Midwest. That front
will be slower-moving in northern areas as the upper level pattern
becomes more amplified. Thus, the storms that will develop ahead of
the cold front will be slower moving from Pennsylvania north into
New York, supporting a higher likelihood for training. Ahead of
this cold front, Gulf moisture will be drawn northeastward,
supported by the increasing upper level forcing as the trough
becomes more negatively tilted by Monday evening.

Longer-range CAMs guidance shows multiple rounds of storms tracking
across Pennsylvania and New York through the period, being driven
by different impulses of upper level energy as those shortwave
troughs track more south to north with time. While duration of the
heavier rains will be lesser on Monday across WV, MD, and VA,
expected heavy rainfall from the Day 1/Sunday period in this area
should lower the FFGs in the area by the Day 2/Monday period. Thus,
the Slight Risk includes areas expecting less rainfall on Monday
afternoon. Meanwhile in PA and NY, sensitive soils will still be
present, as well as topographic concerns, so the higher threat for
flash flooding will be into western and central NY.

...Southeast...

Across the Southeast, expect multiple rounds of storms to cross
Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia through the period. The storms
will be supported by periodic passages of shortwave disturbances in
the upper levels, but they will be much further in between
disturbances as compared with areas further north, as the Southeast
will be further from the greatest forcing associated with the low
over the Great Lakes. Partially offsetting this will be the
proximity to the Gulf, which will allow for there to be far more
moisture available for the storms as compared with areas further
north. Soils in this area are around average for moisture content
as there has been some time for the soils to dry out from past
rainfall events. This has allowed FFGs to recover quite a bit, and
the high FFGs will play a big role at tampering the severity and
frequency of instances of flash flooding due to the heavy rains.
Thus, for now, the area remains in a Marginal risk, but will be
evaluated with future updates for upgrade potential.

...Texas...

Significant uncertainty remains in the potential for flash flooding
across Texas on Monday. The cold front impacting much of north
Texas on Sunday will push further south, turning the predominant
flow out of the north across the northern half of the state. This
should allow for advection of drier air. Ample solar heating will
still promote the development of instability, as well as any
evapotranspiration in the area. Thus, expect at least some shower
and thunderstorm activity again on Monday, albeit more likely on
Monday night. Given the sensitivities from heavy rains in this
area, the lesser coverage and duration of storms may still be
enough to eventually need a targeted Slight Risk upgrade between
now and Monday afternoon, but the confidence is not quite there
yet.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...West Texas and New Mexico...

After potentially leftover convection in the early morning hours of
Tuesday from Monday night's convection, much of the day across the
Slight Risk area will be mostly dry. With peak solar heating in the
late afternoon, however, a strengthening subtropical shortwave
ejecting out of the Southwest will interact with the plentiful Gulf
moisture already in place across west Texas. This will result in
widespread convective development Tuesday evening. There is
significant uncertainty however with the nature, coverage, and
strength of the thunderstorms, as well as where and when they will
impact any one area. Given that, and the spread in the guidance,
the Slight Risk was expanded westward into New Mexico to account
for potential development off the Sacramento Mountains, and any dry
line convection. Regardless, there remains enough agreement that
given plentiful recent rainfall and convective activity across West
Texas, this new round of rain should result in widely scattered
instances of flash flooding. This may be start of another period of
daily thunderstorms in this area through the mid-range.

...New England...

Convective activity in this region will be ongoing at the start of
the period and continue through the day as Atlantic moisture is
drawn northward ahead of a NNE moving upper level trough that will
be rejoining the jet stream. The rainfall should be largely over in
New England by Tuesday evening. Given most of the day the rainfall
will be in the cooler, more stable part of the day, expect lesser
rainfall rates. Thus, the inherited Marginal Risk was left
unchanged with this update.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5aUQslzEGp0yufBV5f61uEajX4JmCcVZJeTGj2qIqjs1= IIR283Rwl-sOrHTj7V3FADeVzkRxjCPkMrh2aMwqukkT6Nw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5aUQslzEGp0yufBV5f61uEajX4JmCcVZJeTGj2qIqjs1= IIR283Rwl-sOrHTj7V3FADeVzkRxjCPkMrh2aMwqyC-zuyI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5aUQslzEGp0yufBV5f61uEajX4JmCcVZJeTGj2qIqjs1= IIR283Rwl-sOrHTj7V3FADeVzkRxjCPkMrh2aMwqzt6p5tY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 081949
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...GULF COAST...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians...
Very few changes were made to the existing Day 1 outlook over this
region, with observational trends generally matching earlier
forecasts fairly well. The initial round of rain has moved through
much of the Slight Risk area as of 15 UTC, and has produced a
fairly widespread 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain in much of the area. As
cloud cover partially clears in the wake of the area of stratiform
rain, rapid destabilization is occurring, and this is already
beginning to support convective initiation. Although the PWs may be
slightly lower in this area of clearing, they are still relatively
high (around 1.4 to 1.5 inches) around the 90th percentile for
early June. The combination of the increasingly strong instability
and relatively deep moisture should support hourly rain rates of 1
to 2 inches per hour in the most vigorous and organized convection.
This may lead to flash flooding, particularly in situations where
the rain rates can be sustained for more than an hour, and either
in the mountainous areas of N WV, W MD, SW PA that have been very
wet lately, or in urbanized areas in the coastal plain.

...Gulf Coast...
Training and backbuilding thunderstorm activity has been far more
persistent this morning in portions of E MS and C AL than models
have been indicating. However, 12 UTC hi-res guidance appears to
generally have a better handle on the current mesoscale environment
and state of the convection. There is good agreement that the
convective line itself and/or the associated gust front will make
steady progress toward the coast today, and then begin to stall
later this afternoon or early tonight. This may focus additional
convective clusters and lines later today and tonight, with a
favorable configuration for backbuilding (southwesterly inflow with
an upstream reservoir of strong instability). The combination of
the very high CAPE values, and anomalously high PWs around 2
inches, will support very heavy hourly rain rates approaching or
exceeding 2 inches in the most organized convective clusters. If
the gust front interacts with the coastal convergence zone and
anchors convection somewhere near the coastline, heavy rain rates
could persist for several hours and lead to a locally extreme
rainfall event with potential for significant flash flooding.

...Southern Plains...
The heavy rainfall and associated flash flooding threat in this
region is more conditional, given excellent hi-res model agreement
in a very organized, rapidly forward propagating bowing line late
this afternoon and this evening. Although the instantaneous rain
rates in the line itself would be likely to be high, the fast
forward speed would likely mitigate that factor a bit. Corridors of
heavy rainfall in these cases tend to occur either:

1. Near the poleward bookend vortex, which can tend to move slower
and still have relatively high rain rates. In this case, that would
be most likely over portions of SC OK, although the fast forward
motion of the line makes it uncertain how impactful this would be
from a rainfall perspective.

2. Or along the upshear flank of the cold pool. That seems
plausible in this case, and would be most likely either in far
SW OK or in western N TX. In particular, a corridor of locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding would seem more likely if
convective development occurs near a lingering front in advance of
the main forward propagating MCS, thereby increasing the duration
of the heavy rainfall. However, it's unclear whether this
antecedent development and the eventual gust front location will be
co-located.

Therefore, the Slight Risk was maintained given these
uncertainties, and was only nudged slightly to the southwest to
account for latest observational data trends and hi-res guidance.

Lamers


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AS WELL AS THE GULF COAST...

...Northeast and Ohio Valley...

Convective lines are expected to develop Monday just ahead of a
strong, steadily advancing cold front over the eastern Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley, and eventually advancing into the interior
Northeast (PA and NY in particular). A narrow plume of PWs around
1.5 inches and moderate instability should support heavy rain rates
on the order of 1-2 inches per hour in the most intense activity.
The Slight Risk was maintained but retracted a bit to be focused
primarily in Pennsylvania and southern New York. The model QPF
signal was reduced a bit in eastern Ohio and West Virginia. Greater
confidence in the possibility of training thunderstorms or
convective rain bands exists over PA and NY where the deep layer
mean wind will be more parallel to the cold front orientation.
Further southwest into portions of SE OH, WV, KY, TN, the HREF and
experimental RRFS ensemble both show a scattering of low chances of
rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance on a 1-hr or 3-hr basis,
but overall ensemble mean QPF is lower and the mean wind is more
crosswise to the cold front. This suggests convective lines should
be more progressive and any flash flooding impacts may be more
isolated.

...Gulf Coast and Southeast...

A Slight Risk was introduced from SE MS into S AL, SW and C GA, and
the FL Panhandle. Multi-model ensemble QPFs show the greatest
chances of 2+ inches of rainfall now increasingly concentrated in
this area. Scattered clusters of thunderstorms are expected to
develop by Monday afternoon across the Gulf Coast region in an
environment characterized by strong instability and PWs around 2
inches. The availability of deep moisture and favorable instability
would support very heavy rain rates. While hi-res models differ a
bit on the details, they all generally show clusters and lines of
thunderstorms developing in west-east oriented bands along
mesoscale boundaries. Some of these boundaries may be related to
convection from the day and night prior, or increasingly the
arrival of a synoptic cold front from the northwest. Any lines that
are oriented in this fashion would be more parallel to the deep
layer mean wind and could create corridors of training convection
and swaths of localized heavy rainfall.=20

...West Texas and New Mexico...

For now, a broad Marginal Risk was maintained in these areas as any concentrated areas of heavy rainfall would likely be highly
dependent on the convective evolution from Sunday afternoon into
Monday morning across the region. A forward propagating MCS across
S OK and N TX should push an outflow boundary somewhere into C TX,
and that could become a feature that focuses renewed convective
development on Monday. Broad low-level east to southeast flow from
the coastal plain all the way into W TX and E NM should cause PWs
to gradually increase, and support scattered convection well into
C/E NM during the afternoon hours. Some hi-res models show this
activity in NM coalescing into a MCS and pushing southeastward into
W TX during the evening and overnight, and existing boundaries
would be important to that process as well. It's possible a Slight
Risk may be needed in future outlook updates.

Lamers


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...West Texas, Texas Hill Country, and Southwest New Mexico...

Greater confidence exists in a heavy rainfall event on Tuesday
(compared to Monday) in SE NM and W/C TX. A shortwave ejecting out
of the Desert Southwest will push through NM early Tuesday and
approach the Slight Risk area over the aforementioned region. The
combination of abundant deep moisture, with PWs generally above the
90th percentile for early June, strong instability, the approaching
shortwave, and upper level divergence will favor widespread
thunderstorm activity. Deep layer mean winds will not be
particularly strong, around 10-15 knots, which should favor slow
eastward propagation with time. It seems most likely that
convective initiation will occur closer to the Sacramento,
Guadalupe, and Davis Mountains from SE NM into far W TX, near the
nose of a low-level moisture transport maximum. Slow propagation of
convective clusters could then lead to flash flooding issues from
near those areas, to eventually as far east as the Edwards Plateau
and Texas Hill Country.

Lamers


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8XGL2i_OSwnHEoKk6CXtAhKP3cGc4Jnsr3YWD9b9_ilr= qJM4eXveBf0z9KlBxC7j4C2wjcystZFhd_fFXsciaISq-Mw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8XGL2i_OSwnHEoKk6CXtAhKP3cGc4Jnsr3YWD9b9_ilr= qJM4eXveBf0z9KlBxC7j4C2wjcystZFhd_fFXsci7AE7eBM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8XGL2i_OSwnHEoKk6CXtAhKP3cGc4Jnsr3YWD9b9_ilr= qJM4eXveBf0z9KlBxC7j4C2wjcystZFhd_fFXsci5CRmA68$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 090057
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN=20
PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST...AS WELL AS THE MID-ATLANTIC...

01Z Update...

...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley...=20
A cluster of heavy thunderstorms over the TX Panhandle and=20
Northwest TX this evening will further develop into a forward=20
propagating bowing line (or lines) that last through the night and=20
reach the Gulf Coast Monday morning. High shear should allow the
existing supercells to persist and congeal into organized MCSs.=20
Corridors of heavy rainfall in these MCS cases tend to occur in=20
the left bookend vortex, along the upshear flank of the cold pool,
and with repeating cells which in this case would be activity=20
developing ahead of the main organized system.=20

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs are in decent agreement with widespread
coverage of 2-4" across NW and North TX (upshear flanking side of
the activity), southern OK and Northwest LA (left bookend of
activity) through 12Z. This forward propagating system should
increase forward speed late tonight, allowing it to at least
approach the upper TX coast by 12Z.=20

Therefore, the Slight Risk was expanded a bit south in TX and LA
with the Marginal extended to the Gulf Coast including the Houston
metro.

For further information on TX flooding potential this evening please
see MPD 405 and further downstream MPDs overnight.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Convection that fired on the outflow from morning heavy
thunderstorms over central MS/AL continues this evening with 30kt
bulk shear helping maintain supercell segments over southern AL. An
approaching impulse from TX should allow westward propagation of
this activity which CAMs have shown all day today. The 23Z HRRR=20
keys in on central MS to Mobile AL as the greatest heavy rain risk
corridor (2-5") which is a bit farther west than previous runs.=20
Therefore, the Slight Risk was expanded west through southern MS.

...Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians...
Shrank western end of Slight Risk where activity has waned with the
cold frontal passage west of the Appalachian Crest. Maintained the
Slight Risk over the rest of the Mid-Atlantic where activity is
ongoing. Please see MPD 404 for further info.

...Midwest...
Pre-cold frontal activity is progged from recent HRRRs to redevelop
overnight as it shifts east. Given lower FFG over central/eastern
IN and southeast MI, the Marginal Risk is expanded up through the
Detroit area. Robust activity over central MO this evening is
progged to shift over southern IL overnight, so the Marginal Risk
was expanded there too.


Lamers/Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AS WELL AS THE GULF COAST...

...Northeast and Ohio Valley...
Convective lines are expected to develop Monday just ahead of a=20
strong, steadily advancing cold front over the eastern Great Lakes=20
and Ohio Valley, and eventually advancing into the interior=20
Northeast (PA and NY in particular). A narrow plume of PWs around=20
1.5 inches and moderate instability should support heavy rain rates
on the order of 1-2 inches per hour in the most intense activity.=20
The Slight Risk was maintained but retracted a bit to be focused=20
primarily in Pennsylvania and southern New York. The model QPF=20
signal was reduced a bit in eastern Ohio and West Virginia. Greater
confidence in the possibility of training thunderstorms or=20
convective rain bands exists over PA and NY where the deep layer=20
mean wind will be more parallel to the cold front orientation.=20
Further southwest into portions of SE OH, WV, KY, TN, the HREF and=20 experimental RRFS ensemble both show a scattering of low chances of
rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance on a 1-hr or 3-hr basis,=20
but overall ensemble mean QPF is lower and the mean wind is more=20
crosswise to the cold front. This suggests convective lines should=20
be more progressive and any flash flooding impacts may be more=20
isolated.

...Gulf Coast and Southeast...
A Slight Risk was introduced from SE MS into S AL, SW and C GA,=20
and the FL Panhandle. Multi-model ensemble QPFs show the greatest=20
chances of 2+ inches of rainfall now increasingly concentrated in=20
this area. Scattered clusters of thunderstorms are expected to=20
develop by Monday afternoon across the Gulf Coast region in an=20
environment characterized by strong instability and PWs around 2=20
inches. The availability of deep moisture and favorable instability
would support very heavy rain rates. While hi-res models differ a=20
bit on the details, they all generally show clusters and lines of=20 thunderstorms developing in west-east oriented bands along=20
mesoscale boundaries. Some of these boundaries may be related to=20
convection from the day and night prior, or increasingly the=20
arrival of a synoptic cold front from the northwest. Any lines that
are oriented in this fashion would be more parallel to the deep=20
layer mean wind and could create corridors of training convection=20
and swaths of localized heavy rainfall.

...West Texas and New Mexico...
For now, a broad Marginal Risk was maintained in these areas as=20
any concentrated areas of heavy rainfall would likely be highly=20
dependent on the convective evolution from Sunday afternoon into=20
Monday morning across the region. A forward propagating MCS across=20
S OK and N TX should push an outflow boundary somewhere into C TX,=20
and that could become a feature that focuses renewed convective=20
development on Monday. Broad low-level east to southeast flow from=20
the coastal plain all the way into W TX and E NM should cause PWs=20
to gradually increase, and support scattered convection well into=20
C/E NM during the afternoon hours. Some hi-res models show this=20
activity in NM coalescing into a MCS and pushing southeastward into
W TX during the evening and overnight, and existing boundaries=20
would be important to that process as well. It's possible a Slight=20
Risk may be needed in future outlook updates.

Lamers


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...West Texas, Texas Hill Country, and Southwest New Mexico...
Greater confidence exists in a heavy rainfall event on Tuesday=20
(compared to Monday) in SE NM and W/C TX. A shortwave ejecting out=20
of the Desert Southwest will push through NM early Tuesday and=20
approach the Slight Risk area over the aforementioned region. The=20 combination of abundant deep moisture, with PWs generally above the
90th percentile for early June, strong instability, the=20
approaching shortwave, and upper level divergence will favor=20
widespread thunderstorm activity. Deep layer mean winds will not be particularly strong, around 10-15 knots, which should favor slow=20
eastward propagation with time. It seems most likely that=20
convective initiation will occur closer to the Sacramento,=20
Guadalupe, and Davis Mountains from SE NM into far W TX, near the=20
nose of a low-level moisture transport maximum. Slow propagation of
convective clusters could then lead to flash flooding issues from=20
near those areas, to eventually as far east as the Edwards Plateau=20
and Texas Hill Country.

Lamers


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6T0Kd9WHtsIfx4H6PpFJlFXDZSS_BfMo6l5ag1VabOpv= guYdiFaJkDf772HTn_b6iid2KwLTPDil6Fs_NKTWPJcdVuc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6T0Kd9WHtsIfx4H6PpFJlFXDZSS_BfMo6l5ag1VabOpv= guYdiFaJkDf772HTn_b6iid2KwLTPDil6Fs_NKTWWQ0-tEQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6T0Kd9WHtsIfx4H6PpFJlFXDZSS_BfMo6l5ag1VabOpv= guYdiFaJkDf772HTn_b6iid2KwLTPDil6Fs_NKTWiu4v8L4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 090816
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Northeast...

A vertically stacked low over the Great Lakes will track north-
northeast into Ontario through the period. South and east of the
low, upper level divergence and forcing will be maximized as a 100
kt jet streak and enhanced divergence from a shortwave rounding the
southern side of the low will all increase the forcing for showers
and thunderstorms in the Slight Risk area of Pennsylvania and
western New York. At the surface, a potent cold front will be
moving east from the Great Lakes/Midwest and into Pennsylvania and
New York. The front will contribute additional forcing for storms.
Somewhat limited Gulf moisture will stream northward ahead of the
front, raising PWATs to as high as 1.5 inches. Instability will
also increase with daytime heating with MUCAPE values between 500=20
and 1,500 J/kg, with the greatest instability into Pennsylvania.

CAMs guidance generally agree on multiple lines of showers with
embedded storms moving across PA and NY today into tonight. The
storms will mostly be in the late afternoon and into tonight. Due
to multiple rounds of rain, soils will be primed ahead of the
heaviest storms tonight. Each line of showers and storms will be
quick-moving, which should temper the flash flooding threat
somewhat. However, topographic concerns and well-above-normal=20
antecedent soil moisture conditions from recent rainfall will both
work to increase the flash flooding threat. The inherited Slight is
largely intact with only some trimming across eastern NY as the
heaviest rain looks to stay further west.

...Southeast...

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
traverse across the Southeast today and tonight. The first round of
storms is ongoing from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle. The storms are being supplied
with ample Gulf moisture as PWATs are well above 1.75 inches in
most areas with a southwesterly mid-level flow. Meanwhile, a potent
shortwave at the base of the trough will force additional
convection. Cold pool interactions should cause more storms to
form. As the shortwave crosses the Southeast this evening, the=20
storms should evolve upscale from random clusters of storms to a=20
line of storms. The line should clear the storms across the north,
but as the surface cold front begins to stall, backbuilding storms
will become increasingly possible in many of the same areas of
southern Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle that are
currently seeing convective activity.

Storms from last night as well as the ongoing convection near and
just inland from the Gulf Coast have locally greatly decreased the
FFGs in the area. Additional convection this afternoon and evening
should have no trouble causing widely scattered instances of flash
flooding. Further north, greater potential for repeating storms
into the Birmingham and Atlanta metros led to a small expansion of
the Slight into northeastern Georgia.

...Southern Plains...

For eastern NM and west Texas, Monday will largely be a break day
from most of the convection. The area will be on the back edge of a
stalled out cold front, which will be moving eastward into the
Southeast, as it's back edge gets left behind, resulting in a
stationary boundary across northern Texas. Very limited upper level
forcing will keep most convective activity this afternoon and
evening limited in coverage. Most of the CAMs show a single cluster
of storms that originate in eastern NM during the afternoon and
evening, then track along the stationary front across portions of
west Texas. In isolation, this would normally barely amount to a
Marginal Risk, as the cluster should be fairly isolated, with
limited convection anywhere around it, and will be quick-moving.
However, most of these areas have seen numerous rounds of heavy=20
rain from storms originating off the dryline almost every single
day, including at present, so soils have been well saturated, and
will struggle to keep up with yet another round of heavy rain, even
if it should be relatively brief in duration. A new Slight Risk
area was introduced with this update, but will be somewhat
dependent on the storms tracking over recently hard hit areas, and
there being some pre-cluster storms that likely form ahead of it,
and then are absorbed into the larger cluster. Thus, this is a
low-confidence and lower-end Slight Risk for this region.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...

Yet another round of widespread heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity will impact much of far southeastern New Mexico and west
Texas again Tuesday and Tuesday night. While some lingering storms
will be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of the Hill
Country of central Texas, the bulk of the activity will be during
the late afternoon into the overnight. Maximum daytime heating
across the area will increase the instability across much of west
Texas as abundant Gulf moisture remains over the area south of a
stationary front over northern Texas. Storms will blossom in
coverage towards sunset as the LLJ of additional Gulf moisture
strengthens. The convection will both interact with the stationary
front, a possible dryline in southeastern NM and far west Texas,
and some subtle, but still important upper level impulses that
eject out of the southern Rockies.=20

There has been little change in the ERO risk areas as the signal=20
remains consistent targeting west Texas for shower and storm=20
activity. The Slight remains quite large in part due to the=20
widespread area of west Texas that has seen heavy rain recently,=20
resulting in wetter than normal soils, especially north towards the
Panhandle.

The Marginal Risk along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard also
remains largely unchanged. Storms will be ongoing into New England
at the start of the period, with some chance for largely
disorganized convection from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas. While
some of these areas have also been hard hit with heavy rains in
recent days, the lack of confidence in much organization to the
storms favors a continuation of the Marginal Risk. Cell
interactions will likely cause localized Slight Risk impacts along
the Gulf Coast, but where that will happen remains highly
uncertain.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...

Deep Gulf moisture will advect north across much of Texas (and the
Southeast for that matter) on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Slow-
moving upper level shortwave energy will shift east across Texas
through the period. The stationary front that had been across north
Texas for much of the prior 2 days will begin to lift north as a
warm front, especially Wednesday night as the nocturnal
strengthening of the LLJ overcomes what little southward push of
drier air north of the front is left. Meanwhile across West Texas,
the typical dry line will also advance eastward, which will work to
uplift the moisture and cause more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. While the storms may be around in isolated
clusters through the day, the greatest concentration of storms will
initiate in the late afternoon and persist through the overnight.
Many of the same areas of northern Texas will be hit with multiple
rounds of storms once again. A higher-end Slight is in effect from
east of Lubbock through the Metroplex, and from southwestern
Oklahoma to around the Austin metro. It's very possible that a
Moderate Risk upgrade may be needed for a portion of this area with
increasing confidence and CAMs analysis of the convective scenario.
Once again, the storms alone would not quite get the risk to a
Moderate level, but the combination of the storms and antecedent
very wet soil conditions.

Up north towards the MN/IA border and southern WI, a subtle
shortwave in the jet will interact with a weaker portion of the LLJ
which will run into a drier air mass to the north. Showers and
storms may train eastward across this region. However, instability
will be a tremendous limiting factor in the potential for flash
flooding. Soils are at or below normal for moisture in the area,
which also will not help with flash flooding potential. A Marginal
Risk remains in effect with few changes.

The Marginal risk in Montana was also maintained with a small
eastward expansion towards the border of ND. Areas of convection
will cross MT through the period, but will be few and far between.
Low FFGs in this area could allow for isolated instances of flash
flooding where there are favorable cell interactions.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8_OYAmYX-6DRJEKtv3WtkpFuSJHCFlFq_bQ2XXGOT61T= 8yxHKM4wSUHheecpSqlYh8KdPzVUBnjyNq_C--WAW5444Dk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8_OYAmYX-6DRJEKtv3WtkpFuSJHCFlFq_bQ2XXGOT61T= 8yxHKM4wSUHheecpSqlYh8KdPzVUBnjyNq_C--WA0o8kq08$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8_OYAmYX-6DRJEKtv3WtkpFuSJHCFlFq_bQ2XXGOT61T= 8yxHKM4wSUHheecpSqlYh8KdPzVUBnjyNq_C--WAkt69F7I$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 091559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

16Z Update...
Expanded Slight in west Texas=20
Added a Slight around the Houston metro.

...Northeast...
Occluded low over Wisconsin this morning will track northeast over
the U.P. of Michigan tonight. South and east of the low, upper=20
level divergence and forcing will be maximized as a 100 kt jet=20
streak and enhanced divergence from a shortwave rounding the=20
southern side of the low will increase the forcing for thunderstorms
in the Slight Risk area of Pennsylvania and western New York. At=20
the surface, a potent cold front will be moving east from the Great Lakes/Midwest and into Pennsylvania and New York. The front will=20
contribute additional forcing for storms. Somewhat limited Gulf=20
moisture will stream northward ahead of the front, raising PWATs up to
1.5 inches (1.5 sigma above normal). Instability will also=20
increase with daytime heating with MUCAPE values between 500 and=20
1,500 J/kg, with the greatest instability into Pennsylvania.

12Z CAMs generally agree that the current activity moving from Ohio
intensifies diurnally across PA and NY. Soil moisture is elevated
from recent rains, though storms will be quick- moving, which=20
should temper the flash flooding threat somewhat. However,=20
topographic and urbanized concerns warrants maintenance of the
Slight Risk with some further trimming out on the eastern side in
NY per coordination with WFO BTV.=20

...Southeast...
Multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms are expected to traverse=20
across the Southeast through. Ample Gulf moisture is being supplied
on strong (30kt) low level flow with as PWATs 1.75 to 2 inches=20
over MS/AL/GA where activity should focus/repeat. Meanwhile, a=20
potent shortwave at the base of the trough currently over the=20
lower-mid Miss River and cold pool interactions from ongoing=20
activity will force additional convection. As the shortwave crosses
the Southeast this evening, the storms should evolve upscale from=20
random clusters to lines. As the surface cold front begins to=20
stall, backbuilding storms will become increasingly possible in=20
many of the same areas of southern Mississippi to the western=20
Florida Panhandle that saw convective activity this morning.

Widely scattered instances of flash flooding can be expected inland
from the central Gulf Coast where a Slight Risk is maintained.=20

...Texas and New Mexico...=20
12Z CAMs continue to ramp up convective activity today developing
this afternoon off the southern Rockies with organized thunderstorm
clusters shifting southeast over west into central TX overnight.
Much of this activity is west/south of heavy precip from recent
days, but given Gulf-sourced moisture extending up through west
Texas (1.5 sigma above normal) and high instability, the Slight
Risk is maintained and expanded a bit more into central Texas for
overnight concerns.

Furthermore, a boundary around the Houston metro activates this
afternoon with a risk for repeating heavy thunderstorms there. A
Slight Risk was raised around the greater Houston metro.

Wegman/Jackson

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...

Yet another round of widespread heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity will impact much of far southeastern New Mexico and west
Texas again Tuesday and Tuesday night. While some lingering storms
will be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of the Hill
Country of central Texas, the bulk of the activity will be during
the late afternoon into the overnight. Maximum daytime heating
across the area will increase the instability across much of west
Texas as abundant Gulf moisture remains over the area south of a
stationary front over northern Texas. Storms will blossom in
coverage towards sunset as the LLJ of additional Gulf moisture
strengthens. The convection will both interact with the stationary
front, a possible dryline in southeastern NM and far west Texas,
and some subtle, but still important upper level impulses that
eject out of the southern Rockies.

There has been little change in the ERO risk areas as the signal
remains consistent targeting west Texas for shower and storm
activity. The Slight remains quite large in part due to the
widespread area of west Texas that has seen heavy rain recently,
resulting in wetter than normal soils, especially north towards the
Panhandle.

The Marginal Risk along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard also
remains largely unchanged. Storms will be ongoing into New England
at the start of the period, with some chance for largely
disorganized convection from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas. While
some of these areas have also been hard hit with heavy rains in
recent days, the lack of confidence in much organization to the
storms favors a continuation of the Marginal Risk. Cell
interactions will likely cause localized Slight Risk impacts along
the Gulf Coast, but where that will happen remains highly
uncertain.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...

Deep Gulf moisture will advect north across much of Texas (and the
Southeast for that matter) on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Slow-
moving upper level shortwave energy will shift east across Texas
through the period. The stationary front that had been across north
Texas for much of the prior 2 days will begin to lift north as a
warm front, especially Wednesday night as the nocturnal
strengthening of the LLJ overcomes what little southward push of
drier air north of the front is left. Meanwhile across West Texas,
the typical dry line will also advance eastward, which will work to
uplift the moisture and cause more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. While the storms may be around in isolated
clusters through the day, the greatest concentration of storms will
initiate in the late afternoon and persist through the overnight.
Many of the same areas of northern Texas will be hit with multiple
rounds of storms once again. A higher-end Slight is in effect from
east of Lubbock through the Metroplex, and from southwestern
Oklahoma to around the Austin metro. It's very possible that a
Moderate Risk upgrade may be needed for a portion of this area with
increasing confidence and CAMs analysis of the convective scenario.
Once again, the storms alone would not quite get the risk to a
Moderate level, but the combination of the storms and antecedent
very wet soil conditions.

Up north towards the MN/IA border and southern WI, a subtle
shortwave in the jet will interact with a weaker portion of the LLJ
which will run into a drier air mass to the north. Showers and
storms may train eastward across this region. However, instability
will be a tremendous limiting factor in the potential for flash
flooding. Soils are at or below normal for moisture in the area,
which also will not help with flash flooding potential. A Marginal
Risk remains in effect with few changes.

The Marginal risk in Montana was also maintained with a small
eastward expansion towards the border of ND. Areas of convection
will cross MT through the period, but will be few and far between.
Low FFGs in this area could allow for isolated instances of flash
flooding where there are favorable cell interactions.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_bIplAvtfOM0MAq78TZQHtQen152_YNENexipo68yigf= Wy6r7fsTuqPZaG6wUmgx_yZNyFYOohHCY1iG5iSVf0VH3eE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_bIplAvtfOM0MAq78TZQHtQen152_YNENexipo68yigf= Wy6r7fsTuqPZaG6wUmgx_yZNyFYOohHCY1iG5iSVyqwd28g$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_bIplAvtfOM0MAq78TZQHtQen152_YNENexipo68yigf= Wy6r7fsTuqPZaG6wUmgx_yZNyFYOohHCY1iG5iSV_4jHw74$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 092028
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

16Z Update...
Expanded Slight in west Texas
Added a Slight around the Houston metro.

...Northeast...
Occluded low over Wisconsin this morning will track northeast over
the U.P. of Michigan tonight. South and east of the low, upper
level divergence and forcing will be maximized as a 100 kt jet
streak and enhanced divergence from a shortwave rounding the
southern side of the low will increase the forcing for thunderstorms
in the Slight Risk area of Pennsylvania and western New York. At
the surface, a potent cold front will be moving east from the Great Lakes/Midwest and into Pennsylvania and New York. The front will
contribute additional forcing for storms. Somewhat limited Gulf
moisture will stream northward ahead of the front, raising PWATs up to
1.5 inches (1.5 sigma above normal). Instability will also
increase with daytime heating with MUCAPE values between 500 and
1,500 J/kg, with the greatest instability into Pennsylvania.

12Z CAMs generally agree that the current activity moving from Ohio
intensifies diurnally across PA and NY. Soil moisture is elevated
from recent rains, though storms will be quick- moving, which
should temper the flash flooding threat somewhat. However,
topographic and urbanized concerns warrants maintenance of the
Slight Risk with some further trimming out on the eastern side in
NY per coordination with WFO BTV.

...Southeast...
Multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms are expected to traverse
across the Southeast through. Ample Gulf moisture is being supplied
on strong (30kt) low level flow with as PWATs 1.75 to 2 inches
over MS/AL/GA where activity should focus/repeat. Meanwhile, a
potent shortwave at the base of the trough currently over the
lower-mid Miss River and cold pool interactions from ongoing
activity will force additional convection. As the shortwave crosses
the Southeast this evening, the storms should evolve upscale from
random clusters to lines. As the surface cold front begins to
stall, backbuilding storms will become increasingly possible in
many of the same areas of southern Mississippi to the western
Florida Panhandle that saw convective activity this morning.

Widely scattered instances of flash flooding can be expected inland
from the central Gulf Coast where a Slight Risk is maintained.

...Texas and New Mexico...
12Z CAMs continue to ramp up convective activity today developing
this afternoon off the southern Rockies with organized thunderstorm
clusters shifting southeast over west into central TX overnight.
Much of this activity is west/south of heavy precip from recent
days, but given Gulf-sourced moisture extending up through west
Texas (1.5 sigma above normal) and high instability, the Slight
Risk is maintained and expanded a bit more into central Texas for
overnight concerns.

Furthermore, a boundary around the Houston metro activates this
afternoon with a risk for repeating heavy thunderstorms there. A
Slight Risk was raised around the greater Houston metro.

Wegman/Jackson

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

21Z Update...

...South-Central U.S./Texas...=20
Yet another round of widespread heavy thunderstorm activity=20
Tuesday over portions of the south- central CONUS. Diurnal activity
originating on the Sacramento Mtns in NM will shift southeast over
west TX through the evening. Abundant Gulf moisture remains over=20
the area south of a stationary front over northern Texas. Storms=20
will blossom in coverage towards sunset as the LLJ of additional=20
Gulf moisture strengthens. The convection will both interact with=20
the stationary front, a possible dryline in southeastern NM and far
west Texas, and some subtle, but still important upper level=20
impulses that eject out of the southern Rockies.

The main change with 12Z guidance, particularly with CAMs today has
been a focus farther south...south of the TX Panhandle. Therefore
the northern portion of the Slight Risk was trimmed south with a
bit more of the Rio Grande downstream of the Big Bend included.=20

...Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard...
The Marginal Risk along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard again=20
remains largely unchanged. Main risks include ongoing storms in=20
New England at the start of the period, with some chance for=20
largely disorganized convection from the Gulf Coast to the=20
Carolinas. While some of these areas have also been hard hit with=20
heavy rains in recent days, the lack of confidence in much=20
organization to the storms favors a continuation of the Marginal=20
Risk. Cell interactions are still likely to cause localized Slight
Risk-level impacts along the Gulf Coast, but uncertainty remains at
this time.

Wegman/Jackson

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...

21Z Update...

...Southern Plains/Texas/Gulf Coast...
Deep Gulf moisture will advect north across much of Texas and the=20
Southeast on Wednesday. Slow- moving upper level shortwave energy=20
will shift east across Texas through the period. The stationary=20
front that had been across north-central Texas for much of the=20
prior two days should begin to lift north as a warm front,=20
especially Wednesday night as the nocturnal strengthening of the=20
LLJ overcomes what little southward push of drier air north of the=20
front is left. Meanwhile across West Texas, the typical dry line=20
will also advance eastward, which will work to uplift the moisture=20
and cause more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. While=20
the storms may be around in isolated clusters through the day, the=20
greatest concentration of storms should initiate in the late=20
afternoon and persist through the overnight. There is potential for
some of the same areas of northern Texas will be hit with multiple
rounds of storms once again. A higher-end Slight is in effect for
portions of North Texas into southern Oklahoma.

The main note for this area is guidance has wide variation of the
main QPF axis. This includes the experimental RRFS which for 12Z
highlights eastern Texas only for higher rainfall. However, global
and regional models are farther west/north. Since uncertainty
reigns, only small modifications to the Slight Risk were made -
generally an east shift.

The Marginal Risk was expanded east over the central Gulf Coast
based on confidence of higher QPF inland from the coast.

...Upper Midwest...
Up north towards the MN/IA border and southern WI, a subtle
shortwave in the jet will interact with a weaker portion of the LLJ
which will run into a drier air mass to the north. Showers and
storms may train eastward across this region. However, instability
will be a tremendous limiting factor in the potential for flash
flooding. Soils are at or below normal for moisture in the area,
which also will not help with flash flooding potential. A Marginal
Risk remains in effect with a minor south expansion based on 12Z
consensus including the ECMWF and GFS.

...Montana/Northern Rockies...
Further south and east expansion of Marginal risk into the northern
Plains and northern Rockies. Areas of convection will cross MT=20
through the period, but the main concern at this time is coverage
which may be somewhat limited. Low FFGs over this area could allow
for isolated instances of flash flooding where there are favorable
cell and terrain interactions.

Wegman/Jackson


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5HNnjDzsDU3uipbYGHjj-_DDiLg3BMyr5v3qoc_UsRew= 74GxJGT63i9dRemiVXwGIU11618NBR05kYugLVwmpfFhMcc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5HNnjDzsDU3uipbYGHjj-_DDiLg3BMyr5v3qoc_UsRew= 74GxJGT63i9dRemiVXwGIU11618NBR05kYugLVwmzCVzBpE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5HNnjDzsDU3uipbYGHjj-_DDiLg3BMyr5v3qoc_UsRew= 74GxJGT63i9dRemiVXwGIU11618NBR05kYugLVwmtH4HlgU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 100054
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...01Z Update...
Cut back on the western portions of the Slight and Marginal Risk
areas across the OH Valley into western NY-PA, while also=20
extending the Slight a little farther south to include more of=20
western MD and a portion of northeast WV and far northwest VA. This
largely based on observational and HRRR trends, with MPD #413 in=20
effect through just after midnight EDT. Elsewhere, more minor=20
modifications were made, again per the latest guidance and=20
observational trends, including the latest (18Z) HREF exceedance=20 probabilities.=20

Hurley

Previous discussion below..

...Northeast...
Occluded low over Wisconsin this morning will track northeast over
the U.P. of Michigan tonight. South and east of the low, upper
level divergence and forcing will be maximized as a 100 kt jet
streak and enhanced divergence from a shortwave rounding the
southern side of the low will increase the forcing for thunderstorms
in the Slight Risk area of Pennsylvania and western New York. At
the surface, a potent cold front will be moving east from the Great Lakes/Midwest and into Pennsylvania and New York. The front will
contribute additional forcing for storms. Somewhat limited Gulf
moisture will stream northward ahead of the front, raising PWATs up to
1.5 inches (1.5 sigma above normal). Instability will also
increase with daytime heating with MUCAPE values between 500 and
1,500 J/kg, with the greatest instability into Pennsylvania.

12Z CAMs generally agree that the current activity moving from Ohio
intensifies diurnally across PA and NY. Soil moisture is elevated
from recent rains, though storms will be quick- moving, which
should temper the flash flooding threat somewhat. However,
topographic and urbanized concerns warrants maintenance of the
Slight Risk with some further trimming out on the eastern side in
NY per coordination with WFO BTV.

...Southeast...
Multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms are expected to traverse
across the Southeast through. Ample Gulf moisture is being supplied
on strong (30kt) low level flow with as PWATs 1.75 to 2 inches
over MS/AL/GA where activity should focus/repeat. Meanwhile, a
potent shortwave at the base of the trough currently over the
lower-mid Miss River and cold pool interactions from ongoing
activity will force additional convection. As the shortwave crosses
the Southeast this evening, the storms should evolve upscale from
random clusters to lines. As the surface cold front begins to
stall, backbuilding storms will become increasingly possible in
many of the same areas of southern Mississippi to the western
Florida Panhandle that saw convective activity this morning.

Widely scattered instances of flash flooding can be expected inland
from the central Gulf Coast where a Slight Risk is maintained.

...Texas and New Mexico...
12Z CAMs continue to ramp up convective activity today developing
this afternoon off the southern Rockies with organized thunderstorm
clusters shifting southeast over west into central TX overnight.
Much of this activity is west/south of heavy precip from recent
days, but given Gulf-sourced moisture extending up through west
Texas (1.5 sigma above normal) and high instability, the Slight
Risk is maintained and expanded a bit more into central Texas for
overnight concerns.

Furthermore, a boundary around the Houston metro activates this
afternoon with a risk for repeating heavy thunderstorms there. A
Slight Risk was raised around the greater Houston metro.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

21Z Update...

...South-Central U.S./Texas...
Yet another round of widespread heavy thunderstorm activity
Tuesday over portions of the south- central CONUS. Diurnal activity
originating on the Sacramento Mtns in NM will shift southeast over
west TX through the evening. Abundant Gulf moisture remains over
the area south of a stationary front over northern Texas. Storms
will blossom in coverage towards sunset as the LLJ of additional
Gulf moisture strengthens. The convection will both interact with
the stationary front, a possible dryline in southeastern NM and far
west Texas, and some subtle, but still important upper level
impulses that eject out of the southern Rockies.

The main change with 12Z guidance, particularly with CAMs today has
been a focus farther south...south of the TX Panhandle. Therefore
the northern portion of the Slight Risk was trimmed south with a
bit more of the Rio Grande downstream of the Big Bend included.

...Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard...
The Marginal Risk along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard again
remains largely unchanged. Main risks include ongoing storms in
New England at the start of the period, with some chance for
largely disorganized convection from the Gulf Coast to the
Carolinas. While some of these areas have also been hard hit with
heavy rains in recent days, the lack of confidence in much
organization to the storms favors a continuation of the Marginal
Risk. Cell interactions are still likely to cause localized Slight
Risk-level impacts along the Gulf Coast, but uncertainty remains at
this time.

Wegman/Jackson

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...

21Z Update...

...Southern Plains/Texas/Gulf Coast...
Deep Gulf moisture will advect north across much of Texas and the
Southeast on Wednesday. Slow- moving upper level shortwave energy
will shift east across Texas through the period. The stationary
front that had been across north-central Texas for much of the
prior two days should begin to lift north as a warm front,
especially Wednesday night as the nocturnal strengthening of the
LLJ overcomes what little southward push of drier air north of the
front is left. Meanwhile across West Texas, the typical dry line
will also advance eastward, which will work to uplift the moisture
and cause more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. While
the storms may be around in isolated clusters through the day, the
greatest concentration of storms should initiate in the late
afternoon and persist through the overnight. There is potential for
some of the same areas of northern Texas will be hit with multiple
rounds of storms once again. A higher-end Slight is in effect for
portions of North Texas into southern Oklahoma.

The main note for this area is guidance has wide variation of the
main QPF axis. This includes the experimental RRFS which for 12Z
highlights eastern Texas only for higher rainfall. However, global
and regional models are farther west/north. Since uncertainty
reigns, only small modifications to the Slight Risk were made -
generally an east shift.

The Marginal Risk was expanded east over the central Gulf Coast
based on confidence of higher QPF inland from the coast.

...Upper Midwest...
Up north towards the MN/IA border and southern WI, a subtle
shortwave in the jet will interact with a weaker portion of the LLJ
which will run into a drier air mass to the north. Showers and
storms may train eastward across this region. However, instability
will be a tremendous limiting factor in the potential for flash
flooding. Soils are at or below normal for moisture in the area,
which also will not help with flash flooding potential. A Marginal
Risk remains in effect with a minor south expansion based on 12Z
consensus including the ECMWF and GFS.

...Montana/Northern Rockies...
Further south and east expansion of Marginal risk into the northern
Plains and northern Rockies. Areas of convection will cross MT
through the period, but the main concern at this time is coverage
which may be somewhat limited. Low FFGs over this area could allow
for isolated instances of flash flooding where there are favorable
cell and terrain interactions.

Wegman/Jackson


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4RmaYTSgBrGSBtcUGNn-bOf5YohJyMyEVDqDy1mBe_Ug= Wmn56sxPAUTfZIu_JQ3KO58oD2u2XPIzrpB3lRSldDKSKFY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4RmaYTSgBrGSBtcUGNn-bOf5YohJyMyEVDqDy1mBe_Ug= Wmn56sxPAUTfZIu_JQ3KO58oD2u2XPIzrpB3lRSlkCaq02Q$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4RmaYTSgBrGSBtcUGNn-bOf5YohJyMyEVDqDy1mBe_Ug= Wmn56sxPAUTfZIu_JQ3KO58oD2u2XPIzrpB3lRSlNQfIo0Q$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 100821
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact portions
of southern and western Texas today into tonight. The first round
ongoing now in west Texas may persist in a weakened and likely
non-impactful form (from a flooding perspective, at least) past 12Z
this morning across central Texas. Generally the only expected
impact from these storms will be a priming (or continued
saturation) of the soils.=20

New storms may begin to develop as early as midday across the
Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau regions of west Texas. They'll
develop in large part due to an influx of deep Gulf moisture into
southwest Texas, with PWATs up to 1.5 inches, or about 2 sigma
above normal for that area of west Texas. This amount of
atmospheric moisture along with maximum solar heating for this time
of year will allow instability to become extreme in some areas,
likely exceeding 4,000 J/kg. Thus, in addition to any severe
threat, the storms will be more than capable of producing very
heavy rain, with rates of 3+ inches per hour with the strongest=20
storms. The storms will likely congeal in the Edwards Plateau
region late in the afternoon, generally following the Rio Grande
south and east. With atmospheric moisture only increasing as the
storms move towards the Gulf, they will remain prolific rainmakers
well into the overnight hours.

Soils across the Edwards Plateau and south-central Texas are very
dry, with most of the recent heavy rainfall occurring well north of
this area. While this will work to inhibit riverine flooding, the
soils should initially be quite hydrophobic because they've been so
dry, increasing the flash flooding threat. Thus, a higher end
Slight is in effect for the area from San Antonio west to the Rio
Grande.

Elsewhere, a stalled out front just inland from the Gulf Coast in
the Southeast may act as a catalyst for additional convection from
Houston east to the Carolinas. Despite the presence of the front,
there will be little to organize the storms, which will still have
plentiful tropical moisture to work with, so the Marginal Risk was
maintained. Further north, drier air should preclude any flooding
along the Delmarva, while the forcing remains west of Maine...so
those areas were removed from the Marginal with this update.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

A strong low-level jet will continue to advect abundant Gulf
moisture northward across the southern Plains on Wednesday. This
moisture will run into the dryline across west Texas, which in turn
will result in renewed rounds of convection forming along the
dryline, or remnant cold pool boundaries from prior convection. The
new storms will drop their own cold pools, likely causing
additional convection. Since moisture replenishment will be
constant, the storms should have no trouble maintaining themselves
as they move across Texas. Expect at least some morning convection
to be ongoing at the start of the period from the overnight storms
in Day 1. However, as on previous days, the lion's share of the
heavy rainfall across Texas will result from afternoon convection
congealing into one or more MCSs during the overnight period when
the LLJ ramps up.=20

The primary source of uncertainty, as is very common with
convection, is where the convection forms. Depending on the
guidance, that could be anywhere across the eastern half of Texas.
While the consensus is along the I-35 corridor from south of San
Antonio to the Oklahoma state line, the variance longitudinally is
from the Permian Basin to the Louisiana state line. This
uncertainty with both where the convection will form and how
organized it will be largely precluded any potential Moderate Risk
upgrades, although several urban areas including the Metroplex,=20
Waco, Austin, and San Antonio may all have a higher flash flooding=20
threat. Further, the signal for heavy rain has decreased somewhat,
which also reduced any confidence in any upgrades at this time.

Elsewhere across the Southeast, the abundance of atmospheric
moisture all along the Gulf Coast should support almost any=20
convection having at least some potential to cause isolated flash=20
flooding. Given that and somewhat higher rainfall amounts forecast,
the Marginal Risk was expanded greatly to include the rest of the=20
Gulf Coast and up the Atlantic coast to North Carolina with this=20
update. Tidal flooding with the full Strawberry Moon may compound=20
any flooding from rainfall at the shore.

The Marginal Risks in the upper Midwest and across much of Montana
were largely unchanged with this update. The LLJ, or an extension
thereof will provide moisture for storms to draw from in both these
areas, as upper level shortwave disturbances provide the forcing
for those storms to form and loosely organize. Drier soils in these
areas should preclude all but an isolated flash flooding threat.

Other than the extension of the Marginal Risk in the Southeast,
changes elsewhere were minor, with a southward nudge to the Slight
in Texas.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...Southern Plains...

A rinse and repeat pattern across Texas will continue on Thursday
as plentiful Gulf moisture from an increasingly strong LLJ
continues to advect northward across the southern Plains. It
appears that the storms will shift slightly further east as
compared to Wednesday, but the I-35 corridor from San Antonio
through the Metroplex to Oklahoma City appears to still be in the
bullseye for the most rainfall, especially in Texas. While a
higher-end Slight remains in effect across this area, should
current rainfall amounts hold, then a Moderate Risk may eventually
be needed as the effects from multiple consecutive days featuring
storms dropping heavy rain lower the thresholds needed for
additional flash flooding to develop. Once again the guidance is
all over the place, which is fairly normal for a Day 3 forecast for
convection in the summer. Thus, for now, will hold off on any
upgrades. What can be said is by this point, a more well defined
corridor of heavier rain appears likely to have developed,
generally tied to a dry line that inches eastward with each passing
day.=20

...Southern Minnesota...

Forecast rainfall amounts have increased significantly across
southern Minnesota as the guidance suggests a mesolow forms across Nebraska/South Dakota/Iowa and slowly drifts east, latching on to
the northern extent of the plume of Gulf moisture gradually
expanding across much of the Southeast by Thursday. This low will
provide the forcing, with plentiful moisture and a decent frontal
boundary to its north all acting to support training and
backbuilding thunderstorms across southern Minnesota, including the
Twin Cities. With some potential for overlap on the southern side
of the storms with rainfall from the Day 2/Wednesday period, and
the rapid increase in forecast rainfall, a Slight Risk upgrade was
introduced with this update. Storms are likely to develop further
west back across the Dakotas and eastern Montana, but the greatest
forcing and thus, highest risk of flash flooding will be into
Minnesota.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CEBJAsByiNZz1ikzJgZ_VWf1lLgvIL3aepA1dYTE1Y8= OR9Sk1u3LurdjiQGZwXoDLEcMED1pzAPHUX2EkRPcM9dhak$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CEBJAsByiNZz1ikzJgZ_VWf1lLgvIL3aepA1dYTE1Y8= OR9Sk1u3LurdjiQGZwXoDLEcMED1pzAPHUX2EkRP4Uo8ETY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CEBJAsByiNZz1ikzJgZ_VWf1lLgvIL3aepA1dYTE1Y8= OR9Sk1u3LurdjiQGZwXoDLEcMED1pzAPHUX2EkRPjWD7ox8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 101559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...Texas...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of
southern and western Texas this afternoon into tonight. Ongoing=20
convection over northeastern Texas is slowly weakening though new
activity is developing downstream over LA along an elevated
boundary.=20

New storms should develop this afternoon across the Trans-Pecos=20
and Edwards Plateau regions of west Texas. Deep Gulf moisture (PW
values > 1.5" or +2 sigma) combined with maximum solar heating will
allow instability to become extreme in some areas, likely=20
exceeding 4,000 J/kg. Thus, in addition to any severe threat, the=20
storms will be more than capable of producing very heavy rain, with
rates of 3+ inches per hour with the strongest storms. The storms=20
will likely congeal in the Edwards Plateau region late in the=20
afternoon, generally following the Rio Grande south and east. With=20 atmospheric moisture only increasing as the storms move towards the
Gulf, they will remain prolific rainmakers well into the overnight
hours. 12Z HREF probs still show 3"/hr probs >30% in some areas.=20

Soils across the Edwards Plateau and south-central Texas are very
dry, with most of the recent heavy rainfall occurring well north of
this area. While this will work to inhibit riverine flooding, the
soils should initially be quite hydrophobic because they've been so
dry, increasing the flash flooding threat. Thus, a higher end
Slight is in effect for the area from San Antonio west to the Rio
Grande.

...Southeast and Northeast...

Elsewhere, a stalled out front just inland from the Gulf Coast in
the Southeast may act as a catalyst for additional convection from
eastern Texas eastward to the Carolinas. Despite the presence of=20
the front and plenty of tropical moisture, there will be little to
organize the storms. The Marginal Risk was maintained with an
expectation of only isolated heavier rainfall. Farther north,=20
rainfall ahead of an advancing cold front into the Northeast may
add to soggier soils from this morning's rainfall, so the Marginal
Risk outline was maintained here as well for this afternoon.=20

Wegman/Fracasso

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

A strong low-level jet will continue to advect abundant Gulf
moisture northward across the southern Plains on Wednesday. This
moisture will run into the dryline across west Texas, which in turn
will result in renewed rounds of convection forming along the
dryline, or remnant cold pool boundaries from prior convection. The
new storms will drop their own cold pools, likely causing
additional convection. Since moisture replenishment will be
constant, the storms should have no trouble maintaining themselves
as they move across Texas. Expect at least some morning convection
to be ongoing at the start of the period from the overnight storms
in Day 1. However, as on previous days, the lion's share of the
heavy rainfall across Texas will result from afternoon convection
congealing into one or more MCSs during the overnight period when
the LLJ ramps up.

The primary source of uncertainty, as is very common with
convection, is where the convection forms. Depending on the
guidance, that could be anywhere across the eastern half of Texas.
While the consensus is along the I-35 corridor from south of San
Antonio to the Oklahoma state line, the variance longitudinally is
from the Permian Basin to the Louisiana state line. This
uncertainty with both where the convection will form and how
organized it will be largely precluded any potential Moderate Risk
upgrades, although several urban areas including the Metroplex,
Waco, Austin, and San Antonio may all have a higher flash flooding
threat. Further, the signal for heavy rain has decreased somewhat,
which also reduced any confidence in any upgrades at this time.

Elsewhere across the Southeast, the abundance of atmospheric
moisture all along the Gulf Coast should support almost any
convection having at least some potential to cause isolated flash
flooding. Given that and somewhat higher rainfall amounts forecast,
the Marginal Risk was expanded greatly to include the rest of the
Gulf Coast and up the Atlantic coast to North Carolina with this
update. Tidal flooding with the full Strawberry Moon may compound
any flooding from rainfall at the shore.

The Marginal Risks in the upper Midwest and across much of Montana
were largely unchanged with this update. The LLJ, or an extension
thereof will provide moisture for storms to draw from in both these
areas, as upper level shortwave disturbances provide the forcing
for those storms to form and loosely organize. Drier soils in these
areas should preclude all but an isolated flash flooding threat.

Other than the extension of the Marginal Risk in the Southeast,
changes elsewhere were minor, with a southward nudge to the Slight
in Texas.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...Southern Plains...

A rinse and repeat pattern across Texas will continue on Thursday
as plentiful Gulf moisture from an increasingly strong LLJ
continues to advect northward across the southern Plains. It
appears that the storms will shift slightly further east as
compared to Wednesday, but the I-35 corridor from San Antonio
through the Metroplex to Oklahoma City appears to still be in the
bullseye for the most rainfall, especially in Texas. While a
higher-end Slight remains in effect across this area, should
current rainfall amounts hold, then a Moderate Risk may eventually
be needed as the effects from multiple consecutive days featuring
storms dropping heavy rain lower the thresholds needed for
additional flash flooding to develop. Once again the guidance is
all over the place, which is fairly normal for a Day 3 forecast for
convection in the summer. Thus, for now, will hold off on any
upgrades. What can be said is by this point, a more well defined
corridor of heavier rain appears likely to have developed,
generally tied to a dry line that inches eastward with each passing
day.

...Southern Minnesota...

Forecast rainfall amounts have increased significantly across
southern Minnesota as the guidance suggests a mesolow forms across Nebraska/South Dakota/Iowa and slowly drifts east, latching on to
the northern extent of the plume of Gulf moisture gradually
expanding across much of the Southeast by Thursday. This low will
provide the forcing, with plentiful moisture and a decent frontal
boundary to its north all acting to support training and
backbuilding thunderstorms across southern Minnesota, including the
Twin Cities. With some potential for overlap on the southern side
of the storms with rainfall from the Day 2/Wednesday period, and
the rapid increase in forecast rainfall, a Slight Risk upgrade was
introduced with this update. Storms are likely to develop further
west back across the Dakotas and eastern Montana, but the greatest
forcing and thus, highest risk of flash flooding will be into
Minnesota.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uIuiAEGsVp8CbvaekeCYOi4R1ETsZ05rmk_vn3Tbth0= wSn-9z9oB-A_nm3zUakqeTeFu9re-Vje8-zJLy5tiKK8aa0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uIuiAEGsVp8CbvaekeCYOi4R1ETsZ05rmk_vn3Tbth0= wSn-9z9oB-A_nm3zUakqeTeFu9re-Vje8-zJLy5tVbkaG88$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uIuiAEGsVp8CbvaekeCYOi4R1ETsZ05rmk_vn3Tbth0= wSn-9z9oB-A_nm3zUakqeTeFu9re-Vje8-zJLy5tWBSF3g4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 101942
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...Texas...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of
southern and western Texas this afternoon into tonight. Ongoing
convection over northeastern Texas is slowly weakening though new
activity is developing downstream over LA along an elevated
boundary.

New storms should develop this afternoon across the Trans-Pecos
and Edwards Plateau regions of west Texas. Deep Gulf moisture (PW
values > 1.5" or +2 sigma) combined with maximum solar heating will
allow instability to become extreme in some areas, likely
exceeding 4,000 J/kg. Thus, in addition to any severe threat, the
storms will be more than capable of producing very heavy rain, with
rates of 3+ inches per hour with the strongest storms. The storms
will likely congeal in the Edwards Plateau region late in the
afternoon, generally following the Rio Grande south and east. With
atmospheric moisture only increasing as the storms move towards the
Gulf, they will remain prolific rainmakers well into the overnight
hours. 12Z HREF probs still show 3"/hr probs >30% in some areas.

Soils across the Edwards Plateau and south-central Texas are very
dry, with most of the recent heavy rainfall occurring well north of
this area. While this will work to inhibit riverine flooding, the
soils should initially be quite hydrophobic because they've been so
dry, increasing the flash flooding threat. Thus, a higher end
Slight is in effect for the area from San Antonio west to the Rio
Grande.

...Southeast and Northeast...

Elsewhere, a stalled out front just inland from the Gulf Coast in
the Southeast may act as a catalyst for additional convection from
eastern Texas eastward to the Carolinas. Despite the presence of
the front and plenty of tropical moisture, there will be little to
organize the storms. The Marginal Risk was maintained with an
expectation of only isolated heavier rainfall. Farther north,
rainfall ahead of an advancing cold front into the Northeast may
add to soggier soils from this morning's rainfall, so the Marginal
Risk outline was maintained here as well for this afternoon.

Wegman/Fracasso

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...Texas into the Southeast...

A strong low-level jet will continue to advect abundant Gulf
moisture northward across the southern Plains on Wednesday. This
moisture will run into the dryline across west Texas, which in turn
will result in renewed rounds of convection forming along the
dryline, or remnant cold pool boundaries from prior convection. The
new storms will drop their own cold pools, likely causing
additional convection. Since moisture replenishment will be
constant, the storms should have no trouble maintaining themselves
as they move across Texas. Expect at least some morning convection
to be ongoing at the start of the period from the overnight storms
in Day 1 which have acted to increase soil moisture (and lower FFG
values). However, as on previous days, the lion's share of the=20
heavy rainfall across Texas will result from afternoon convection=20
congealing into one or more MCSs during the overnight period when=20
the LLJ ramps up.

The primary source of uncertainty, as is very common with
convection, is where the convection forms. Depending on the
guidance, that could be anywhere across the eastern half of Texas.
While the consensus is along the I-35 corridor from south of San
Antonio to the Oklahoma state line, the variance longitudinally is
from the Permian Basin to the Louisiana state line and has not yet
converged even with another cycle of guidance. This uncertainty=20
with both where the convection will form and how organized it will=20
be largely precluded any potential Moderate Risk upgrades, although
several urban areas including the Metroplex, Waco, Austin, and San
Antonio may all have a higher flash flooding threat. Further, their
remains a separation (north-south) between the HREF guidance and
RRFS ensemble guidance, which also reduced any confidence in any=20
upgrades at this time. However, the rather high 10th percentile
amounts nearing 0.75-1.00" around and just south of the Metroplex
does decrease the potential for just Marginal impacts. 90th
percentile QPF was well above 4-6" with some more aggressive CAMs
showing closer to 10" over the 24-hr period. Both the GEFS
M-Climate QPF (near max values) and ECMWF EFI/SoT (0.7-0.8/near 1)
suggest that potential is real.

Elsewhere across the Southeast, the abundance of atmospheric
moisture all along the Gulf Coast should support almost any
convection having at least some potential to cause isolated flash
flooding. Tidal flooding with the full Strawberry Moon may=20
compound any flooding from rainfall at the shore. Maintained the=20
expansive Marginal Risk that also includes Florida where a modest=20
surge in moisture may support heavier rain totals over=20
southern/southwest portions of the state.

...Western High Plains and the Corn Belt...

The Marginal Risks in the upper Midwest and across much of Montana
were largely unchanged with this update. The LLJ, or an extension=20
thereof, will provide moisture for storms to draw from in both=20
these areas, as upper level shortwave disturbances provide the=20
forcing for those storms to form and loosely organize. Drier soils=20
in these areas should preclude all but an isolated flash flooding=20
threat. However, more sensitive areas along the Divide/Northern
Rockies would also be at risk from comparatively less QPF than
farther east.=20

Wegman/Fracasso

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...Southern Plains...

Mid-level shortwave will slowly move through the area Thursday but
will favor a similar area in eastern Texas as day 2. Plentiful=20
Gulf moisture from an increasingly strong LLJ continues to advect=20
northward across the southern Plains. It appears that the storms=20
will shift slightly further east as compared to Wednesday, but the=20
I-35 corridor from San Antonio through the Metroplex to Oklahoma=20
City appears to still be in the bullseye for the most rainfall,=20
especially in Texas. While a higher-end Slight was maintained across
this area, a Moderate Risk areas may be needed depending on how the
rainfall footprint evolves over the next two days. The guidance is
all over the place, which is fairly normal for a Day 3 forecast=20
for convection in the summer, with hints of a north-south
bifurcation in the QPF (e.g., GFS, RRFS, and ECMWF-AIFS QPF).=20

...Southern Minnesota...

Northern extent of the plume of Gulf moisture will surge northward
and intersect a mid-level shortwave and surface boundary from
southern SD eastward into southern MN. This setup will support=20
training and backbuilding thunderstorms across southern Minnesota,=20
including the Twin Cities, on Thursday. With some potential for=20
overlap on the southern side of the storms with rainfall from the=20
Day 2/Wednesday period, the Slight Risk was maintained from
overnight. Model QPF was quite displaced north-south across MN
(e.g., NAM, GFS, and RRFS farther north) but will hedge on the=20
southern side of the QPF spread closer to the better instability
(and playing into the typical bias). Storms are likely to develop=20
further west back across the Dakotas and eastern Montana, but the=20
greatest forcing and thus, highest risk of flash flooding will be=20
into Minnesota.

Wegman/Fracasso


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VcIqjDchJU-TCgPQK4nZ16axRbKHJeJhU6YhsCzunk5= hsNkLqe1HrVczL8gl051uvZWhpK9nsu3rXrhaXSHaPeTCHE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VcIqjDchJU-TCgPQK4nZ16axRbKHJeJhU6YhsCzunk5= hsNkLqe1HrVczL8gl051uvZWhpK9nsu3rXrhaXSH3u7VNhk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VcIqjDchJU-TCgPQK4nZ16axRbKHJeJhU6YhsCzunk5= hsNkLqe1HrVczL8gl051uvZWhpK9nsu3rXrhaXSHehWuYPA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 110018
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...01Z Update...
Pared a bit of the Marginal Risk area, including portions of the=20
Gulf Coast region from the Upper TX Coast through central LA, based
on the latest observational trends (mosaic
radar/satellite/mesoanalysis) and current HRRR/HREF output. Given
the sub-7.0 C/KM mid level lapse rates along with 0-6km bulk shear
values of 25kts or less, predominately pulse-variety convection=20
will wane significantly in intensity and areal-extent after sunset
per the negative dCAPE/dt trends from the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

Slight Risk area area across TX still looks good, though per the
latest observational and guidance trends, did include a little=20
more of South TX along the Rio Grande.=20

Hurley


Previous discussion...

...Texas...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of
southern and western Texas this afternoon into tonight. Ongoing=20
convection over northeastern Texas is slowly weakening though new=20
activity is developing downstream over LA along an elevated=20
boundary.

New storms should develop this afternoon across the Trans-Pecos
and Edwards Plateau regions of west Texas. Deep Gulf moisture (PW
values > 1.5" or +2 sigma) combined with maximum solar heating will
allow instability to become extreme in some areas, likely
exceeding 4,000 J/kg. Thus, in addition to any severe threat, the
storms will be more than capable of producing very heavy rain, with
rates of 3+ inches per hour with the strongest storms. The storms
will likely congeal in the Edwards Plateau region late in the
afternoon, generally following the Rio Grande south and east. With
atmospheric moisture only increasing as the storms move towards the
Gulf, they will remain prolific rainmakers well into the overnight
hours. 12Z HREF probs still show 3"/hr probs >30% in some areas.

Soils across the Edwards Plateau and south-central Texas are very
dry, with most of the recent heavy rainfall occurring well north of
this area. While this will work to inhibit riverine flooding, the
soils should initially be quite hydrophobic because they've been so
dry, increasing the flash flooding threat. Thus, a higher end
Slight is in effect for the area from San Antonio west to the Rio
Grande.


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...Texas into the Southeast...

A strong low-level jet will continue to advect abundant Gulf
moisture northward across the southern Plains on Wednesday. This
moisture will run into the dryline across west Texas, which in turn
will result in renewed rounds of convection forming along the
dryline, or remnant cold pool boundaries from prior convection. The
new storms will drop their own cold pools, likely causing
additional convection. Since moisture replenishment will be
constant, the storms should have no trouble maintaining themselves
as they move across Texas. Expect at least some morning convection
to be ongoing at the start of the period from the overnight storms
in Day 1 which have acted to increase soil moisture (and lower FFG
values). However, as on previous days, the lion's share of the
heavy rainfall across Texas will result from afternoon convection
congealing into one or more MCSs during the overnight period when
the LLJ ramps up.

The primary source of uncertainty, as is very common with
convection, is where the convection forms. Depending on the
guidance, that could be anywhere across the eastern half of Texas.
While the consensus is along the I-35 corridor from south of San
Antonio to the Oklahoma state line, the variance longitudinally is
from the Permian Basin to the Louisiana state line and has not yet
converged even with another cycle of guidance. This uncertainty
with both where the convection will form and how organized it will
be largely precluded any potential Moderate Risk upgrades, although
several urban areas including the Metroplex, Waco, Austin, and San
Antonio may all have a higher flash flooding threat. Further, their
remains a separation (north-south) between the HREF guidance and
RRFS ensemble guidance, which also reduced any confidence in any
upgrades at this time. However, the rather high 10th percentile
amounts nearing 0.75-1.00" around and just south of the Metroplex
does decrease the potential for just Marginal impacts. 90th
percentile QPF was well above 4-6" with some more aggressive CAMs
showing closer to 10" over the 24-hr period. Both the GEFS
M-Climate QPF (near max values) and ECMWF EFI/SoT (0.7-0.8/near 1)
suggest that potential is real.

Elsewhere across the Southeast, the abundance of atmospheric
moisture all along the Gulf Coast should support almost any
convection having at least some potential to cause isolated flash
flooding. Tidal flooding with the full Strawberry Moon may
compound any flooding from rainfall at the shore. Maintained the
expansive Marginal Risk that also includes Florida where a modest
surge in moisture may support heavier rain totals over
southern/southwest portions of the state.

...Western High Plains and the Corn Belt...

The Marginal Risks in the upper Midwest and across much of Montana
were largely unchanged with this update. The LLJ, or an extension
thereof, will provide moisture for storms to draw from in both
these areas, as upper level shortwave disturbances provide the
forcing for those storms to form and loosely organize. Drier soils
in these areas should preclude all but an isolated flash flooding
threat. However, more sensitive areas along the Divide/Northern
Rockies would also be at risk from comparatively less QPF than
farther east.

Wegman/Fracasso

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...Southern Plains...

Mid-level shortwave will slowly move through the area Thursday but
will favor a similar area in eastern Texas as day 2. Plentiful
Gulf moisture from an increasingly strong LLJ continues to advect
northward across the southern Plains. It appears that the storms
will shift slightly further east as compared to Wednesday, but the
I-35 corridor from San Antonio through the Metroplex to Oklahoma
City appears to still be in the bullseye for the most rainfall,
especially in Texas. While a higher-end Slight was maintained across
this area, a Moderate Risk areas may be needed depending on how the
rainfall footprint evolves over the next two days. The guidance is
all over the place, which is fairly normal for a Day 3 forecast
for convection in the summer, with hints of a north-south
bifurcation in the QPF (e.g., GFS, RRFS, and ECMWF-AIFS QPF).

...Southern Minnesota...

Northern extent of the plume of Gulf moisture will surge northward
and intersect a mid-level shortwave and surface boundary from
southern SD eastward into southern MN. This setup will support
training and backbuilding thunderstorms across southern Minnesota,
including the Twin Cities, on Thursday. With some potential for
overlap on the southern side of the storms with rainfall from the
Day 2/Wednesday period, the Slight Risk was maintained from
overnight. Model QPF was quite displaced north-south across MN
(e.g., NAM, GFS, and RRFS farther north) but will hedge on the
southern side of the QPF spread closer to the better instability
(and playing into the typical bias). Storms are likely to develop
further west back across the Dakotas and eastern Montana, but the
greatest forcing and thus, highest risk of flash flooding will be
into Minnesota.

Wegman/Fracasso


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RC8m2kOnRfggO2jfCEdmq0NAiJOhSUQNbPoivAsu1oM= QWTAC4iPTdsvwwoRdH3t1HosCTOrsUKi_0PT_TvS1i6gnC8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RC8m2kOnRfggO2jfCEdmq0NAiJOhSUQNbPoivAsu1oM= QWTAC4iPTdsvwwoRdH3t1HosCTOrsUKi_0PT_TvS0234Q8Y$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RC8m2kOnRfggO2jfCEdmq0NAiJOhSUQNbPoivAsu1oM= QWTAC4iPTdsvwwoRdH3t1HosCTOrsUKi_0PT_TvSgSXOxbk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 110814
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Texas...

In coordination with FWD/Dallas, TX and HGX/Houston, TX forecast
offices, a Moderate Risk upgrade was introduced with this update
for portions of central Texas. As is typical with summertime
convection, the signal is a mess. The current MCS in central Texas
is largely agreed upon in the CAMs guidance to persist well into
the afternoon and advance across the rest of east Texas and into=20
Louisiana, as a broken but slow moving line of storms. Most of the
guidance suggests new convection will form in the afternoon with
peak heating and instability across the Texas Moderate and Slight
Risk areas. Those storms will generally track north and east,=20
which will follow behind the first round of storms into east=20
Texas. Most importantly, yet another round forms during the
overnight, likely in the Moderate Risk area. This too will
organize into an MCS, but the southern end of those storms may hang
back and backbuild, resulting in prolonged heavy rain in a narrow
swath somewhere in central Texas.

While this is the broad scenario expected, the details of each
round of storms will play a large role as to the coverage and
severity of flash flooding today and tonight. The majority of the
guidance suggests this will be most prevalent in the Moderate Risk
area of central Texas, but this is far from unanimous, with a
second grouping of guidance suggesting these storms form further
south towards Houston. Thus, this is an unusually low confidence
Moderate Risk for the Day 1 period. Compounding concerns is that
much of northern and central Texas has seen multiple rounds of
heavy rain in recent days, including at present, which has
sufficiently saturated soils across the area. Thus, multiple inches
of rain associated with these storms which will be drawing on air
with PWATs to 2 inches, will quickly overwhelm streams and creeks,
especially in urban areas, resulting in flash flooding. These very
favorable antecedent conditions have also contributed to confidence
increasing for a Moderate Risk upgrade.

HREF guidance should neighborhood probabilities for at least 3
inches of rain today and tonight in the Moderate Risk area of over
70%, and a 20-50% chance of over 5 inches of rain. Given the
abundance of moisture available, both slow moving storms, multiple
rounds of heavy rain in some areas, and the potential for training
and back building will all work to increase the flash flooding
potential across much of eastern Texas, also supporting the
Moderate Risk upgrade.

As the convective evolution becomes more clear through the day and
into tonight, it's likely there may need to be adjustments to the
Moderate Risk area, which as mentioned above, appears most likely
to extend south to the Houston Metro. However, given the multiple
rounds of rain that have impacted the DFW Metroplex in recent days,
and the heavy rain that has hit San Antonio over the past few
hours, any storms favoring any of those metros could require the
Moderate Risk to expand to those areas of the Texas Triangle.

...Gulf Coast through the Carolinas...

A stalled front along the Gulf Coast will act as a focus for
afternoon and evening convection due to an abundance of Gulf
moisture available for the storms to draw from. The broad Marginal
Risk remains in place for all of the rest of the Gulf Coast and
through the Carolinas. The signal has expanded a bit north so the
Marginal was expanded north as well to the Hampton Roads area.

...Upper Midwest...

The Marginal Risk in the area around the MN/IA border has been left
largely unchanged, with most of the concerning convection likely
occurring late tonight at the nose of the LLJ.

...Idaho/Montana...

The Marginal Risk was left largely unchanged here as well with
periods of rain occurring over mostly hydrophobic soils resulting
in localized flash flooding, particularly around any burn scars.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...Arklatex Region & East Texas...

Strong southerly flow of deep Gulf moisture will continue across
east Texas and the Arklatex region on Thursday. There will very
likely be an ongoing MCS across eastern Texas at the start of the
period Thursday, which will progress eastward into Arkansas and
Louisiana through the day. There may be a lull in most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity for the afternoon hours in many=20
areas, but renewed activity will develop through the evening as the
LLJ restrengthens, and a slow moving upper level shortwave helps
drive a dryline east over Oklahoma and Texas, which will cause
numerous storms to form and organize into an MCS near the Arklatex
region through the overnight, as PWATs remain up near 2 inches,
promoting very heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. Once
again, this region has been hard hit with heavy rain in recent
days, and therefore this latest round of heavy rain will not take
much to result in flash flooding. Depending on how much rain falls
in this region on Day 1/Wednesday, it is possible a Moderate Risk
upgrade may be needed for this region as well as confidence
increases and the CAMs include the Thursday night period. There is
enough uncertainty as to how far west the storms are (which will be
highly dependent on the placement of the dryline), and therefore,
the Metroplex, Houston, and Austin remain included in a higher end
Slight Risk, which extends into the southeast corner of Oklahoma
and adjacent western Arkansas counties.

...Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin...

At the nose of the upper level jet, a mesolow is likely to form=20
over the central Plains Thursday afternoon, which will then drift=20
northeast into Iowa on Thursday night. Abundant Gulf moisture will=20
ride northward ahead of the low, running into a strong stationary=20
front which will likely be set up over central Minnesota. This=20
front will provide the lift for training and backbuilding=20
thunderstorms across much of southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon=20
and evening. The storms appear likely to impact all of the Twin=20
Cities and surrounding suburbs, which when added to the wetter=20
soils from any rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday, may result in widely=20
scattered instances of flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was=20
nudged northward with this update, following the latest changes in=20
the ensemble guidance, but rainfall amounts are largely unchanged.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A slow-moving upper level trough will drift east across Oklahoma
and Arkansas through the period. It will draw on abundant Gulf
moisture with PWATs at or above 2 inches to force numerous slow
moving thunderstorms to develop from northeast Texas northeast to
the Mississippi-Ohio River confluence. The southerly flow will also
upslope into the Ozarks of central Arkansas, likely resulting in
localized increases in rainfall rates across much of Arkansas on
Friday and especially into Friday night. Given the expanded
eastward movement of the storms, the inherited Slight Risk was
expanded significantly north and east into the mid-Mississippi
Valley with this update. A higher-end Slight is in effect for the
Arklatex region through much of central Arkansas, where the
heaviest rainfall is expected. Periods of heavy rain across the
Arklatex and western Arkansas are expected from the Day 2/Thursday
period, which will greatly moisten the antecedent soil conditions
in advance of the heavy rainfall expected on Friday and Friday
night. Here too, a Moderate Risk upgrade may be needed with future
updates should the preponderance of guidance remain consistent at
targeting the Arklatex and central Arkansas with the heaviest
rainfall.

New Marginal Risk areas were added across much of the Great Lakes,
where training storms may cause isolated flash flooding, the
northeast corner of Colorado due to some upslope with the flow
turning southeasterly into an expected stationary front over that
area, and the third consecutive day of moderate rainfall across
much of central Montana, aided by increasing divergence ahead of a
potent shortwave moving across the Pacific Northwest by Friday
night. In each of these areas, only isolated flash flooding is
expected as the signal for heavy rain in these areas remains
diffuse.

Isolated to scattered disorganized convection is likely to impact
much of the eastern seaboard Friday afternoon with peak heating.
Given the increasing moisture moving up the coast, any storms that
remain in a given area for too long or backbuild along their cold
pools could cause isolated instances of flash flooding. Given a
lack of discernible forcing, for now have left the area out of a
Marginal citing a less than 5% chance of flash flooding, but the
threat is non-zero. The Marginal may need to be expanded eastward
across much of the eastern seaboard in the coming days should
current trends continue.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-KgE6B5evz00A9z__X26ujh2BBC1tFgIwCZx0zgWMK05= fos0VZEfZ28SjoB2swyrAAqKcfXSiRCaG8ZWHyqhIKwYubU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-KgE6B5evz00A9z__X26ujh2BBC1tFgIwCZx0zgWMK05= fos0VZEfZ28SjoB2swyrAAqKcfXSiRCaG8ZWHyqhqci2u88$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-KgE6B5evz00A9z__X26ujh2BBC1tFgIwCZx0zgWMK05= fos0VZEfZ28SjoB2swyrAAqKcfXSiRCaG8ZWHyqhZHEpb1s$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 111545
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Texas...

16Z Update: The forecast premise remains the same with 12z CAMs
finally all catching on to a better degree of what has occurred,
what is occurring, and general expectations going forward. Expected
to see a redevelopment of convection across East-Central TX this
afternoon within a pocket of higher theta_E remaining over the I-45
corridor between DFW/HOU, aligned well within the higher CAPE,
lower CIN depiction on the recent RAP Mesoanalysis. This will
congeal and move northeast allowing for some of the areas hit hard
this morning to get hit again in wake of the departing complex
moving through the ArkLaTex. Multiple FFW's have occurred to the
southeast of the DFW metro, an area where local FFG's have taken a
hit over the past 24-36 hrs. This setup will allow for a continued
impact in those zones, so the MDT was expanded a bit further to the
northeast to account for the trends in the latest CAMs and
impacted areas.=20

ULL progression over West TX will maintain a posture of relatively
modest buoyancy returning over the Concho Valley down through the
eastern Edwards Plateau and adjacent Hill Country by late-afternoon
and evening. Stronger mid-level perturbations pivoting around the
ULL center will eventually rotate back around and provide a
significant increase in regional ascent within the above zone
leading to cell initiation back over areas hit pretty hard the past
24 hrs. Incredibly low FFG's (<1" over 1/3/6 hr intervals) are
centered over Hill Country with much of the CAMs depicting some
action moving back over the area creating an environment capable of
inducing flash flood prospects over the region as CAMs print out
1-2"/hr rates in some of the stronger convection in the area. By
the evening, the increasing large scale forcing will navigate into
Central TX with the I-35 corridor between DFW to San Antonio and 50
miles either side becoming the primary target for heavy rainfall.=20
Return flow within the 850-700mb level is expected to allow for
greater low-level convergence across the area with convection
orienting more southwest to northeast with some training prospects
along the tight theta_E gradient anticipated between eastern Hill
Country and the I-45 corridor. HREF blended mean QPF is very high
(3-5") within the I-35 corridor between Austin to Waco leading to
40-60% neighborhood probs for >5" over the area. Will need to
monitor for areas south of Austin as a secondary maxima down
towards New Braunfels and San Antonio has been showing up on
guidance with some of the higher probs for >5" also expanding into
that zone. With those locations inheriting higher FFG's, prospects
for flash flooding a bit less than those to the north, but a
higher-end SLGT is now forecast for that area with some potential
of an expansion of the MDT if trends continue.=20

The SLGT was removed over CRP and parts of Deep South TX in
conjunction with radar trends. The southern tip of TX, including
the Brownsville/McAllen area was removed from any ERO as the area
will maintain a relative min in QPF for the period.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

In coordination with FWD/Dallas, TX and HGX/Houston, TX forecast
offices, a Moderate Risk upgrade was introduced with this update
for portions of central Texas. As is typical with summertime
convection, the signal is a mess. The current MCS in central Texas
is largely agreed upon in the CAMs guidance to persist well into
the afternoon and advance across the rest of east Texas and into
Louisiana, as a broken but slow moving line of storms. Most of the
guidance suggests new convection will form in the afternoon with
peak heating and instability across the Texas Moderate and Slight
Risk areas. Those storms will generally track north and east,
which will follow behind the first round of storms into east
Texas. Most importantly, yet another round forms during the
overnight, likely in the Moderate Risk area. This too will
organize into an MCS, but the southern end of those storms may hang
back and backbuild, resulting in prolonged heavy rain in a narrow
swath somewhere in central Texas.

While this is the broad scenario expected, the details of each
round of storms will play a large role as to the coverage and
severity of flash flooding today and tonight. The majority of the
guidance suggests this will be most prevalent in the Moderate Risk
area of central Texas, but this is far from unanimous, with a
second grouping of guidance suggesting these storms form further
south towards Houston. Thus, this is an unusually low confidence
Moderate Risk for the Day 1 period. Compounding concerns is that
much of northern and central Texas has seen multiple rounds of
heavy rain in recent days, including at present, which has
sufficiently saturated soils across the area. Thus, multiple inches
of rain associated with these storms which will be drawing on air
with PWATs to 2 inches, will quickly overwhelm streams and creeks,
especially in urban areas, resulting in flash flooding. These very
favorable antecedent conditions have also contributed to confidence
increasing for a Moderate Risk upgrade.

HREF guidance should neighborhood probabilities for at least 3
inches of rain today and tonight in the Moderate Risk area of over
70%, and a 20-50% chance of over 5 inches of rain. Given the
abundance of moisture available, both slow moving storms, multiple
rounds of heavy rain in some areas, and the potential for training
and back building will all work to increase the flash flooding
potential across much of eastern Texas, also supporting the
Moderate Risk upgrade.

As the convective evolution becomes more clear through the day and
into tonight, it's likely there may need to be adjustments to the
Moderate Risk area, which as mentioned above, appears most likely
to extend south to the Houston Metro. However, given the multiple
rounds of rain that have impacted the DFW Metroplex in recent days,
and the heavy rain that has hit San Antonio over the past few
hours, any storms favoring any of those metros could require the
Moderate Risk to expand to those areas of the Texas Triangle.

Wegman


...Gulf Coast through the Carolinas...

16Z Update: Minor expansion north of the MRGL across parts of the
Lower Mississippi Valley as 12z CAMs came in a bit north with the
heavier precip today. Still looking at locally robust rates of
2-3"/hr in the heaviest convection, but very much more pulse
variety as you align between Central LA across the South and up
into the VA Tidewater. Modest neighborhood probabilities for >3"
(35-50%) exist over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and Coastal NC,
so the threat for at least low-end MRGL persists. No changes we
made in those regions.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

A stalled front along the Gulf Coast will act as a focus for
afternoon and evening convection due to an abundance of Gulf
moisture available for the storms to draw from. The broad Marginal
Risk remains in place for all of the rest of the Gulf Coast and
through the Carolinas. The signal has expanded a bit north so the
Marginal was expanded north as well to the Hampton Roads area.

Wegman


...Upper Midwest...

16Z Update: The MRGL was expanded a bit eastward to include
western Milwaukee metro, but otherwise the threat remains on the
low-end of MRGL. A relatively high probability on the EAS of at=20
least 1" across parts of Northern IA and Southwest WI exist
(60-80%), but a significant drop off in the probs (<15%) for at=20
least 2" means the threat is capped between 1-3" for the general=20
max. With antecedent moisture pretty low over the area, this is a
setup coincident with a MRGL.=20

Kleebauer=20

..Previous Discussion..

The Marginal Risk in the area around the MN/IA border has been left
largely unchanged, with most of the concerning convection likely
occurring late tonight at the nose of the LLJ.

Wegman


...Idaho/Montana...

16Z Update: PWATs running between 1.5-2.5 deviations above normal
across the Northern Rockies and interior PAC NW will lead to
locally heavy rainfall potential over Eastern OR through much of
ID/MT/WY this afternoon and early-evening before dissipating with
loss of diurnal heating. CAMs indicate the risk of 1-2" of rainfall
in heavier cores which would certainly cause problems in any urban
zones and remnant burn scares. The MRGL was expanded through WY and
adjusted a touch south. The threat remains sufficient for a broad
risk area given the environment in place.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

The Marginal Risk was left largely unchanged here as well with
periods of rain occurring over mostly hydrophobic soils resulting
in localized flash flooding, particularly around any burn scars.

Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...Arklatex Region & East Texas...

Strong southerly flow of deep Gulf moisture will continue across
east Texas and the Arklatex region on Thursday. There will very
likely be an ongoing MCS across eastern Texas at the start of the
period Thursday, which will progress eastward into Arkansas and
Louisiana through the day. There may be a lull in most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity for the afternoon hours in many
areas, but renewed activity will develop through the evening as the
LLJ restrengthens, and a slow moving upper level shortwave helps
drive a dryline east over Oklahoma and Texas, which will cause
numerous storms to form and organize into an MCS near the Arklatex
region through the overnight, as PWATs remain up near 2 inches,
promoting very heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. Once
again, this region has been hard hit with heavy rain in recent
days, and therefore this latest round of heavy rain will not take
much to result in flash flooding. Depending on how much rain falls
in this region on Day 1/Wednesday, it is possible a Moderate Risk
upgrade may be needed for this region as well as confidence
increases and the CAMs include the Thursday night period. There is
enough uncertainty as to how far west the storms are (which will be
highly dependent on the placement of the dryline), and therefore,
the Metroplex, Houston, and Austin remain included in a higher end
Slight Risk, which extends into the southeast corner of Oklahoma
and adjacent western Arkansas counties.

...Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin...

At the nose of the upper level jet, a mesolow is likely to form
over the central Plains Thursday afternoon, which will then drift
northeast into Iowa on Thursday night. Abundant Gulf moisture will
ride northward ahead of the low, running into a strong stationary
front which will likely be set up over central Minnesota. This
front will provide the lift for training and backbuilding
thunderstorms across much of southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon
and evening. The storms appear likely to impact all of the Twin
Cities and surrounding suburbs, which when added to the wetter
soils from any rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday, may result in widely
scattered instances of flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was
nudged northward with this update, following the latest changes in
the ensemble guidance, but rainfall amounts are largely unchanged.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A slow-moving upper level trough will drift east across Oklahoma
and Arkansas through the period. It will draw on abundant Gulf
moisture with PWATs at or above 2 inches to force numerous slow
moving thunderstorms to develop from northeast Texas northeast to
the Mississippi-Ohio River confluence. The southerly flow will also
upslope into the Ozarks of central Arkansas, likely resulting in
localized increases in rainfall rates across much of Arkansas on
Friday and especially into Friday night. Given the expanded
eastward movement of the storms, the inherited Slight Risk was
expanded significantly north and east into the mid-Mississippi
Valley with this update. A higher-end Slight is in effect for the
Arklatex region through much of central Arkansas, where the
heaviest rainfall is expected. Periods of heavy rain across the
Arklatex and western Arkansas are expected from the Day 2/Thursday
period, which will greatly moisten the antecedent soil conditions
in advance of the heavy rainfall expected on Friday and Friday
night. Here too, a Moderate Risk upgrade may be needed with future
updates should the preponderance of guidance remain consistent at
targeting the Arklatex and central Arkansas with the heaviest
rainfall.

New Marginal Risk areas were added across much of the Great Lakes,
where training storms may cause isolated flash flooding, the
northeast corner of Colorado due to some upslope with the flow
turning southeasterly into an expected stationary front over that
area, and the third consecutive day of moderate rainfall across
much of central Montana, aided by increasing divergence ahead of a
potent shortwave moving across the Pacific Northwest by Friday
night. In each of these areas, only isolated flash flooding is
expected as the signal for heavy rain in these areas remains
diffuse.

Isolated to scattered disorganized convection is likely to impact
much of the eastern seaboard Friday afternoon with peak heating.
Given the increasing moisture moving up the coast, any storms that
remain in a given area for too long or backbuild along their cold
pools could cause isolated instances of flash flooding. Given a
lack of discernible forcing, for now have left the area out of a
Marginal citing a less than 5% chance of flash flooding, but the
threat is non-zero. The Marginal may need to be expanded eastward
across much of the eastern seaboard in the coming days should
current trends continue.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8LycBScaiZ1SzQ01Z_wb8e-GEBM-hxHO7UhGAP8OkRa7= CsPOEJeXkRh1f892s-jlkmCrw_KT3VF7IAROTr_jlmaUnD0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8LycBScaiZ1SzQ01Z_wb8e-GEBM-hxHO7UhGAP8OkRa7= CsPOEJeXkRh1f892s-jlkmCrw_KT3VF7IAROTr_jIOHiTMw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8LycBScaiZ1SzQ01Z_wb8e-GEBM-hxHO7UhGAP8OkRa7= CsPOEJeXkRh1f892s-jlkmCrw_KT3VF7IAROTr_jbmvpypo$=20

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FOUS30 KWBC 111942
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Texas...

16Z Update: The forecast premise remains the same with 12z CAMs
finally all catching on to a better degree of what has occurred,
what is occurring, and general expectations going forward. Expected
to see a redevelopment of convection across East-Central TX this
afternoon within a pocket of higher theta_E remaining over the I-45
corridor between DFW/HOU, aligned well within the higher CAPE,
lower CIN depiction on the recent RAP Mesoanalysis. This will
congeal and move northeast allowing for some of the areas hit hard
this morning to get hit again in wake of the departing complex
moving through the ArkLaTex. Multiple FFW's have occurred to the
southeast of the DFW metro, an area where local FFG's have taken a
hit over the past 24-36 hrs. This setup will allow for a continued
impact in those zones, so the MDT was expanded a bit further to the
northeast to account for the trends in the latest CAMs and
impacted areas.

ULL progression over West TX will maintain a posture of relatively
modest buoyancy returning over the Concho Valley down through the
eastern Edwards Plateau and adjacent Hill Country by late-afternoon
and evening. Stronger mid-level perturbations pivoting around the
ULL center will eventually rotate back around and provide a
significant increase in regional ascent within the above zone
leading to cell initiation back over areas hit pretty hard the past
24 hrs. Incredibly low FFG's (<1" over 1/3/6 hr intervals) are
centered over Hill Country with much of the CAMs depicting some
action moving back over the area creating an environment capable of
inducing flash flood prospects over the region as CAMs print out
1-2"/hr rates in some of the stronger convection in the area. By
the evening, the increasing large scale forcing will navigate into
Central TX with the I-35 corridor between DFW to San Antonio and 50
miles either side becoming the primary target for heavy rainfall.
Return flow within the 850-700mb level is expected to allow for
greater low-level convergence across the area with convection
orienting more southwest to northeast with some training prospects
along the tight theta_E gradient anticipated between eastern Hill
Country and the I-45 corridor. HREF blended mean QPF is very high
(3-5") within the I-35 corridor between Austin to Waco leading to
40-60% neighborhood probs for >5" over the area. Will need to
monitor for areas south of Austin as a secondary maxima down
towards New Braunfels and San Antonio has been showing up on
guidance with some of the higher probs for >5" also expanding into
that zone. With those locations inheriting higher FFG's, prospects
for flash flooding a bit less than those to the north, but a
higher-end SLGT is now forecast for that area with some potential
of an expansion of the MDT if trends continue.

The SLGT was removed over CRP and parts of Deep South TX in
conjunction with radar trends. The southern tip of TX, including
the Brownsville/McAllen area was removed from any ERO as the area
will maintain a relative min in QPF for the period.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

In coordination with FWD/Dallas, TX and HGX/Houston, TX forecast
offices, a Moderate Risk upgrade was introduced with this update
for portions of central Texas. As is typical with summertime
convection, the signal is a mess. The current MCS in central Texas
is largely agreed upon in the CAMs guidance to persist well into
the afternoon and advance across the rest of east Texas and into
Louisiana, as a broken but slow moving line of storms. Most of the
guidance suggests new convection will form in the afternoon with
peak heating and instability across the Texas Moderate and Slight
Risk areas. Those storms will generally track north and east,
which will follow behind the first round of storms into east
Texas. Most importantly, yet another round forms during the
overnight, likely in the Moderate Risk area. This too will
organize into an MCS, but the southern end of those storms may hang
back and backbuild, resulting in prolonged heavy rain in a narrow
swath somewhere in central Texas.

While this is the broad scenario expected, the details of each
round of storms will play a large role as to the coverage and
severity of flash flooding today and tonight. The majority of the
guidance suggests this will be most prevalent in the Moderate Risk
area of central Texas, but this is far from unanimous, with a
second grouping of guidance suggesting these storms form further
south towards Houston. Thus, this is an unusually low confidence
Moderate Risk for the Day 1 period. Compounding concerns is that
much of northern and central Texas has seen multiple rounds of
heavy rain in recent days, including at present, which has
sufficiently saturated soils across the area. Thus, multiple inches
of rain associated with these storms which will be drawing on air
with PWATs to 2 inches, will quickly overwhelm streams and creeks,
especially in urban areas, resulting in flash flooding. These very
favorable antecedent conditions have also contributed to confidence
increasing for a Moderate Risk upgrade.

HREF guidance should neighborhood probabilities for at least 3
inches of rain today and tonight in the Moderate Risk area of over
70%, and a 20-50% chance of over 5 inches of rain. Given the
abundance of moisture available, both slow moving storms, multiple
rounds of heavy rain in some areas, and the potential for training
and back building will all work to increase the flash flooding
potential across much of eastern Texas, also supporting the
Moderate Risk upgrade.

As the convective evolution becomes more clear through the day and
into tonight, it's likely there may need to be adjustments to the
Moderate Risk area, which as mentioned above, appears most likely
to extend south to the Houston Metro. However, given the multiple
rounds of rain that have impacted the DFW Metroplex in recent days,
and the heavy rain that has hit San Antonio over the past few
hours, any storms favoring any of those metros could require the
Moderate Risk to expand to those areas of the Texas Triangle.

Wegman


...Gulf Coast through the Carolinas...

16Z Update: Minor expansion north of the MRGL across parts of the
Lower Mississippi Valley as 12z CAMs came in a bit north with the
heavier precip today. Still looking at locally robust rates of
2-3"/hr in the heaviest convection, but very much more pulse
variety as you align between Central LA across the South and up
into the VA Tidewater. Modest neighborhood probabilities for >3"
(35-50%) exist over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and Coastal NC,
so the threat for at least low-end MRGL persists. No changes we
made in those regions.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

A stalled front along the Gulf Coast will act as a focus for
afternoon and evening convection due to an abundance of Gulf
moisture available for the storms to draw from. The broad Marginal
Risk remains in place for all of the rest of the Gulf Coast and
through the Carolinas. The signal has expanded a bit north so the
Marginal was expanded north as well to the Hampton Roads area.

Wegman


...Upper Midwest...

16Z Update: The MRGL was expanded a bit eastward to include
western Milwaukee metro, but otherwise the threat remains on the
low-end of MRGL. A relatively high probability on the EAS of at
least 1" across parts of Northern IA and Southwest WI exist
(60-80%), but a significant drop off in the probs (<15%) for at
least 2" means the threat is capped between 1-3" for the general
max. With antecedent moisture pretty low over the area, this is a
setup coincident with a MRGL.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

The Marginal Risk in the area around the MN/IA border has been left
largely unchanged, with most of the concerning convection likely
occurring late tonight at the nose of the LLJ.

Wegman


...Idaho/Montana...

16Z Update: PWATs running between 1.5-2.5 deviations above normal
across the Northern Rockies and interior PAC NW will lead to
locally heavy rainfall potential over Eastern OR through much of
ID/MT/WY this afternoon and early-evening before dissipating with
loss of diurnal heating. CAMs indicate the risk of 1-2" of rainfall
in heavier cores which would certainly cause problems in any urban
zones and remnant burn scares. The MRGL was expanded through WY and
adjusted a touch south. The threat remains sufficient for a broad
risk area given the environment in place.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

The Marginal Risk was left largely unchanged here as well with
periods of rain occurring over mostly hydrophobic soils resulting
in localized flash flooding, particularly around any burn scars.

Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...Arklatex Region & East Texas...

20Z Update: Modest expansion of the SLGT risk was necessary given
the forecast QPF footprint of the heavier returns as far south as
San Antonio and as far east as the middle TX coast. High-end SLGT
is forecast for much of East TX through the ArkLaTex where
antecedent soil moisture will be elevated after today's activity
with a large 2-4+" rainfall likely dropping area FFG's
significantly by this evening. 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities
are relatively high (20-40%) for >5" across the area between
CRP/EWX/HOU with a secondary probability maxima located over the
ArkLaTex (15-30%). Guidance is coming into alignment on the
heaviest precip being located in these two zones with scattered
high amounts in the middle of the two regions, mainly within the
I-45 corridor. A MDT risk was debated, but with the convective
scheme initially still under some uncertainty, did not want to
initiate an upgrade if trends in overnight QPF shift in positioning
or magnitude. HREF EAS signals are high for >1" but drop off
significantly when assessing >2", so there's still some discrepancy
on specifics. Like for the D1, if models trend more favorably for
any one area, there is a chance for a targeted upgrade over either
of the two regions. For now, a broad SLGT risk remains with
expansion through the Ozarks given the recent convective QPF trends
over the more sensitive area for flash flood prospects.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Strong southerly flow of deep Gulf moisture will continue across=20
east Texas and the Arklatex region on Thursday. There will very=20
likely be an ongoing MCS across eastern Texas at the start of the=20
period Thursday, which will progress eastward into Arkansas and=20
Louisiana through the day. There may be a lull in most of the=20
shower and thunderstorm activity for the afternoon hours in many=20
areas, but renewed activity will develop through the evening as the
LLJ restrengthens, and a slow moving upper level shortwave helps=20
drive a dryline east over Oklahoma and Texas, which will cause=20
numerous storms to form and organize into an MCS near the Arklatex=20
region through the overnight, as PWATs remain up near 2 inches,=20
promoting very heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. Once=20
again, this region has been hard hit with heavy rain in recent=20
days, and therefore this latest round of heavy rain will not take=20
much to result in flash flooding. Depending on how much rain falls=20
in this region on Day 1/Wednesday, it is possible a Moderate Risk=20
upgrade may be needed for this region as well as confidence=20
increases and the CAMs include the Thursday night period. There is=20
enough uncertainty as to how far west the storms are (which will be
highly dependent on the placement of the dryline), and therefore,=20
the Metroplex, Houston, and Austin remain included in a higher end=20
Slight Risk, which extends into the southeast corner of Oklahoma=20
and adjacent western Arkansas counties.

Wegman


...Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin...

20Z Update: The SLGT risk expansion to the north was initiated for
the afternoon update, once again with the general QPF maxima
bisecting the I-94 area and points west. A strong signal for >2" of
rainfall is now present within the latest HREF EAS prob fields
(40-60%), a testament to the consistency in CAMs with the placement
of the heaviest QPF maximum that's forecast. Areal average totals=20
of 2-3" are becoming more likely with the setup with local maxima
between 4-6" plausible as neighborhood probs for >5" run between
40-60%, as well across west-central MN. Training threat is the
reasoning for this potential with hourly rates likely between
1-2"/hr in the heaviest convective cores. Area FFG's are modest
within each 1/3/6 hr interval, but could still take some rainfall
initially prior to problems ensuing. Considering all of the above,
the SLGT risk was generally maintained, but did adjust the overall
risk area further west to account for the latest QPF shift in the
hi-res and bias corrected ensemble.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

At the nose of the upper level jet, a mesolow is likely to form=20
over the central Plains Thursday afternoon, which will then drift=20
northeast into Iowa on Thursday night. Abundant Gulf moisture will=20
ride northward ahead of the low, running into a strong stationary=20
front which will likely be set up over central Minnesota. This=20
front will provide the lift for training and backbuilding=20
thunderstorms across much of southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon=20
and evening. The storms appear likely to impact all of the Twin=20
Cities and surrounding suburbs, which when added to the wetter=20
soils from any rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday, may result in widely=20
scattered instances of flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was=20
nudged northward with this update, following the latest changes in=20
the ensemble guidance, but rainfall amounts are largely unchanged.

Wegman


...Carolina Piedmont through East Georgia...

A combination of elevated moisture across the Southeast and strong
differential heating away from the coastal plain will lead to a
corridor of enhanced SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg across
East GA up through the western half of the SC Piedmont. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms with relatively slow storm motions will
enhance locally heavy rainfall capabilties with rates between
2-3"/hr plausible in a few of the stronger cores. Urbanized zones
within the region referenced above will be the most susceptible for
flash flooding prospects with some of the latest CAMs going as high
as 4-6" in some of the greater outputs anticipated. A MRGL risk was
added to convey the threat and correlates well with the latest UFVS
First Guess Fields.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

20Z Update: Main change in the period was a split of the MRGL risk
across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with now two separate risk
areas with a large nil between the areas of interest. The SLGT risk
threat with higher end potential still exists over the ArkLaTex
into the Arkansas Ozarks with a chance at a targeted upgrade given
the overlap signature of heavy rainfall (ArkLaTex) for 3
consecutive periods. Ensemble bias corrected QPF trended a bit
north with the heavier precip footprint, but this might be
attributed more to the bias of a few models likely too far north
with the expected maxima. Didn't deviate too far away from what was
inherited across the Lower Mississippi Valley.=20

The MRGL risks in place are on the lower end of the threshold with
more isolated flash flood risks comparitively in either region.
Best risk will likely be over Northern WI up towards Duluth for the
Midwest MRGL and across MT for the western MRGL risk where ascent
pattern is most favorable.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

A slow-moving upper level trough will drift east across Oklahoma
and Arkansas through the period. It will draw on abundant Gulf
moisture with PWATs at or above 2 inches to force numerous slow
moving thunderstorms to develop from northeast Texas northeast to
the Mississippi-Ohio River confluence. The southerly flow will also
upslope into the Ozarks of central Arkansas, likely resulting in
localized increases in rainfall rates across much of Arkansas on
Friday and especially into Friday night. Given the expanded
eastward movement of the storms, the inherited Slight Risk was
expanded significantly north and east into the mid-Mississippi
Valley with this update. A higher-end Slight is in effect for the
Arklatex region through much of central Arkansas, where the
heaviest rainfall is expected. Periods of heavy rain across the
Arklatex and western Arkansas are expected from the Day 2/Thursday
period, which will greatly moisten the antecedent soil conditions
in advance of the heavy rainfall expected on Friday and Friday
night. Here too, a Moderate Risk upgrade may be needed with future
updates should the preponderance of guidance remain consistent at
targeting the Arklatex and central Arkansas with the heaviest
rainfall.

New Marginal Risk areas were added across much of the Great Lakes,
where training storms may cause isolated flash flooding, the
northeast corner of Colorado due to some upslope with the flow
turning southeasterly into an expected stationary front over that
area, and the third consecutive day of moderate rainfall across
much of central Montana, aided by increasing divergence ahead of a
potent shortwave moving across the Pacific Northwest by Friday
night. In each of these areas, only isolated flash flooding is
expected as the signal for heavy rain in these areas remains
diffuse.

Isolated to scattered disorganized convection is likely to impact
much of the eastern seaboard Friday afternoon with peak heating.
Given the increasing moisture moving up the coast, any storms that
remain in a given area for too long or backbuild along their cold
pools could cause isolated instances of flash flooding. Given a
lack of discernible forcing, for now have left the area out of a
Marginal citing a less than 5% chance of flash flooding, but the
threat is non-zero. The Marginal may need to be expanded eastward
across much of the eastern seaboard in the coming days should
current trends continue.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9fm45BxGpPIsktPB2lGtbIdORzboffTqvHi_xpPMtsBs= 0S-KYNhSIy2tdyUbIA0TUXWQHLMntficIsm4xCitgHiVNEo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9fm45BxGpPIsktPB2lGtbIdORzboffTqvHi_xpPMtsBs= 0S-KYNhSIy2tdyUbIA0TUXWQHLMntficIsm4xCitJxvOXW4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9fm45BxGpPIsktPB2lGtbIdORzboffTqvHi_xpPMtsBs= 0S-KYNhSIy2tdyUbIA0TUXWQHLMntficIsm4xCitm5dusiM$=20

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FOUS30 KWBC 112330
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Day 1
Valid 230Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Texas...
23Z Update: Tweaks were made to the outlook areas based on late
afternoon observational trends, but mostly due to the recent trends
in the guidance -- in particular the recent HRRR/RRFS as well as
the 18Z HREF. This resulted in a subtle southward shift in both the
Moderate and Slight Risk areas across portions of South and South-
Central TX, with the Moderate Risk area now encompassing both the
Austin and San Antonio metro areas.=20

Across the Moderate Risk area, increasing large-scale ascent=20
overnight ahead of the slow-moving upper shortwave along with a=20
favorable thermodynamic profile (PWs aoa 2" and MUCAPEs 1500-2000=20
J/Kg) will make for highly efficient warm rain processes within a=20
ribbon of strong low-level moisture transport (+2 to 2.5 standard=20
deviations above normal). Meanwhile, easterly QLCS progression will
likely retard somewhat overnight as per the shrinking Corfidi=20
Vectors, as the LLJ increases and veers, aligning nearly parallel=20
and approaching the same magnitude of the mean 850-300 mb flow.=20
This will enhance the risk of cell training, which is expected to
maximize within the Moderate Risk area.

Per the latest (18Z) HREF, probabilities of 12hr rainfall exceeding
5" through 12Z Thu peak between 40-60% within the Moderate Risk
area, while isolated probabilities of 20-30% of >8" are also noted.=20

Hurley


..Previous Discussion..

...Texas...
16Z Update: The forecast premise remains the same with 12z CAMs=20
finally all catching on to a better degree of what has occurred,=20
what is occurring, and general expectations going forward. Expected
to see a redevelopment of convection across East-Central TX this=20
afternoon within a pocket of higher theta_E remaining over the I-45
corridor between DFW/HOU, aligned well within the higher CAPE,=20
lower CIN depiction on the recent RAP Mesoanalysis. This will=20
congeal and move northeast allowing for some of the areas hit hard=20
this morning to get hit again in wake of the departing complex=20
moving through the ArkLaTex. Multiple FFW's have occurred to the=20
southeast of the DFW metro, an area where local FFG's have taken a=20
hit over the past 24-36 hrs. This setup will allow for a continued=20
impact in those zones, so the MDT was expanded a bit further to the
northeast to account for the trends in the latest CAMs and=20
impacted areas.

ULL progression over West TX will maintain a posture of relatively
modest buoyancy returning over the Concho Valley down through the
eastern Edwards Plateau and adjacent Hill Country by late-afternoon
and evening. Stronger mid-level perturbations pivoting around the
ULL center will eventually rotate back around and provide a
significant increase in regional ascent within the above zone
leading to cell initiation back over areas hit pretty hard the past
24 hrs. Incredibly low FFG's (<1" over 1/3/6 hr intervals) are
centered over Hill Country with much of the CAMs depicting some
action moving back over the area creating an environment capable of
inducing flash flood prospects over the region as CAMs print out
1-2"/hr rates in some of the stronger convection in the area. By
the evening, the increasing large scale forcing will navigate into
Central TX with the I-35 corridor between DFW to San Antonio and 50
miles either side becoming the primary target for heavy rainfall.
Return flow within the 850-700mb level is expected to allow for
greater low-level convergence across the area with convection
orienting more southwest to northeast with some training prospects
along the tight theta_E gradient anticipated between eastern Hill
Country and the I-45 corridor. HREF blended mean QPF is very high
(3-5") within the I-35 corridor between Austin to Waco leading to
40-60% neighborhood probs for >5" over the area. Will need to
monitor for areas south of Austin as a secondary maxima down
towards New Braunfels and San Antonio has been showing up on
guidance with some of the higher probs for >5" also expanding into
that zone. With those locations inheriting higher FFG's, prospects
for flash flooding a bit less than those to the north, but a
higher-end SLGT is now forecast for that area with some potential
of an expansion of the MDT if trends continue.

The SLGT was removed over CRP and parts of Deep South TX in
conjunction with radar trends. The southern tip of TX, including
the Brownsville/McAllen area was removed from any ERO as the area
will maintain a relative min in QPF for the period.


...Gulf Coast through the Carolinas...
16Z Update: Minor expansion north of the MRGL across parts of the=20
Lower Mississippi Valley as 12z CAMs came in a bit north with the=20
heavier precip today. Still looking at locally robust rates of=20
2-3"/hr in the heaviest convection, but very much more pulse=20
variety as you align between Central LA across the South and up=20
into the VA Tidewater. Modest neighborhood probabilities for >3"=20
(35-50%) exist over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and Coastal NC,
so the threat for at least low-end MRGL persists. No changes we=20
made in those regions.


...Upper Midwest... 16Z Update: The MRGL was expanded a bit=20
eastward to include western Milwaukee metro, but otherwise the=20
threat remains on the low-end of MRGL. A relatively high=20
probability on the EAS of at least 1" across parts of Northern IA=20
and Southwest WI exist (60-80%), but a significant drop off in the=20
probs (<15%) for at least 2" means the threat is capped between=20
1-3" for the general max. With antecedent moisture pretty low over=20
the area, this is a setup coincident with a MRGL.


...Idaho/Montana...
16Z Update: PWATs running between 1.5-2.5 deviations above normal=20
across the Northern Rockies and interior PAC NW will lead to=20
locally heavy rainfall potential over Eastern OR through much of=20
ID/MT/WY this afternoon and early-evening before dissipating with=20
loss of diurnal heating. CAMs indicate the risk of 1-2" of rainfall
in heavier cores which would certainly cause problems in any urban
zones and remnant burn scares. The MRGL was expanded through WY=20
and adjusted a touch south. The threat remains sufficient for a=20
broad risk area given the environment in place.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...Arklatex Region & East Texas...

20Z Update: Modest expansion of the SLGT risk was necessary given
the forecast QPF footprint of the heavier returns as far south as
San Antonio and as far east as the middle TX coast. High-end SLGT
is forecast for much of East TX through the ArkLaTex where
antecedent soil moisture will be elevated after today's activity
with a large 2-4+" rainfall likely dropping area FFG's
significantly by this evening. 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities
are relatively high (20-40%) for >5" across the area between
CRP/EWX/HOU with a secondary probability maxima located over the
ArkLaTex (15-30%). Guidance is coming into alignment on the
heaviest precip being located in these two zones with scattered
high amounts in the middle of the two regions, mainly within the
I-45 corridor. A MDT risk was debated, but with the convective
scheme initially still under some uncertainty, did not want to
initiate an upgrade if trends in overnight QPF shift in positioning
or magnitude. HREF EAS signals are high for >1" but drop off
significantly when assessing >2", so there's still some discrepancy
on specifics. Like for the D1, if models trend more favorably for
any one area, there is a chance for a targeted upgrade over either
of the two regions. For now, a broad SLGT risk remains with
expansion through the Ozarks given the recent convective QPF trends
over the more sensitive area for flash flood prospects.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Strong southerly flow of deep Gulf moisture will continue across
east Texas and the Arklatex region on Thursday. There will very
likely be an ongoing MCS across eastern Texas at the start of the
period Thursday, which will progress eastward into Arkansas and
Louisiana through the day. There may be a lull in most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity for the afternoon hours in many
areas, but renewed activity will develop through the evening as the
LLJ restrengthens, and a slow moving upper level shortwave helps
drive a dryline east over Oklahoma and Texas, which will cause
numerous storms to form and organize into an MCS near the Arklatex
region through the overnight, as PWATs remain up near 2 inches,
promoting very heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. Once
again, this region has been hard hit with heavy rain in recent
days, and therefore this latest round of heavy rain will not take
much to result in flash flooding. Depending on how much rain falls
in this region on Day 1/Wednesday, it is possible a Moderate Risk
upgrade may be needed for this region as well as confidence
increases and the CAMs include the Thursday night period. There is
enough uncertainty as to how far west the storms are (which will be
highly dependent on the placement of the dryline), and therefore,
the Metroplex, Houston, and Austin remain included in a higher end
Slight Risk, which extends into the southeast corner of Oklahoma
and adjacent western Arkansas counties.

Wegman


...Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin...

20Z Update: The SLGT risk expansion to the north was initiated for
the afternoon update, once again with the general QPF maxima
bisecting the I-94 area and points west. A strong signal for >2" of
rainfall is now present within the latest HREF EAS prob fields
(40-60%), a testament to the consistency in CAMs with the placement
of the heaviest QPF maximum that's forecast. Areal average totals
of 2-3" are becoming more likely with the setup with local maxima
between 4-6" plausible as neighborhood probs for >5" run between
40-60%, as well across west-central MN. Training threat is the
reasoning for this potential with hourly rates likely between
1-2"/hr in the heaviest convective cores. Area FFG's are modest
within each 1/3/6 hr interval, but could still take some rainfall
initially prior to problems ensuing. Considering all of the above,
the SLGT risk was generally maintained, but did adjust the overall
risk area further west to account for the latest QPF shift in the
hi-res and bias corrected ensemble.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

At the nose of the upper level jet, a mesolow is likely to form
over the central Plains Thursday afternoon, which will then drift
northeast into Iowa on Thursday night. Abundant Gulf moisture will
ride northward ahead of the low, running into a strong stationary
front which will likely be set up over central Minnesota. This
front will provide the lift for training and backbuilding
thunderstorms across much of southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon
and evening. The storms appear likely to impact all of the Twin
Cities and surrounding suburbs, which when added to the wetter
soils from any rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday, may result in widely
scattered instances of flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was
nudged northward with this update, following the latest changes in
the ensemble guidance, but rainfall amounts are largely unchanged.

Wegman


...Carolina Piedmont through East Georgia...

A combination of elevated moisture across the Southeast and strong
differential heating away from the coastal plain will lead to a
corridor of enhanced SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg across
East GA up through the western half of the SC Piedmont. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms with relatively slow storm motions will
enhance locally heavy rainfall capabilities with rates between
2-3"/hr plausible in a few of the stronger cores. Urbanized zones
within the region referenced above will be the most susceptible for
flash flooding prospects with some of the latest CAMs going as high
as 4-6" in some of the greater outputs anticipated. A MRGL risk was
added to convey the threat and correlates well with the latest UFVS
First Guess Fields.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

20Z Update: Main change in the period was a split of the MRGL risk
across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with now two separate risk
areas with a large nil between the areas of interest. The SLGT risk
threat with higher end potential still exists over the ArkLaTex
into the Arkansas Ozarks with a chance at a targeted upgrade given
the overlap signature of heavy rainfall (ArkLaTex) for 3
consecutive periods. Ensemble bias corrected QPF trended a bit
north with the heavier precip footprint, but this might be
attributed more to the bias of a few models likely too far north
with the expected maxima. Didn't deviate too far away from what was
inherited across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The MRGL risks in place are on the lower end of the threshold with
more isolated flash flood risks comparatively in either region.
Best risk will likely be over Northern WI up towards Duluth for the
Midwest MRGL and across MT for the western MRGL risk where ascent
pattern is most favorable.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

A slow-moving upper level trough will drift east across Oklahoma
and Arkansas through the period. It will draw on abundant Gulf
moisture with PWATs at or above 2 inches to force numerous slow
moving thunderstorms to develop from northeast Texas northeast to
the Mississippi-Ohio River confluence. The southerly flow will also
upslope into the Ozarks of central Arkansas, likely resulting in
localized increases in rainfall rates across much of Arkansas on
Friday and especially into Friday night. Given the expanded
eastward movement of the storms, the inherited Slight Risk was
expanded significantly north and east into the mid-Mississippi
Valley with this update. A higher-end Slight is in effect for the
Arklatex region through much of central Arkansas, where the
heaviest rainfall is expected. Periods of heavy rain across the
Arklatex and western Arkansas are expected from the Day 2/Thursday
period, which will greatly moisten the antecedent soil conditions
in advance of the heavy rainfall expected on Friday and Friday
night. Here too, a Moderate Risk upgrade may be needed with future
updates should the preponderance of guidance remain consistent at
targeting the Arklatex and central Arkansas with the heaviest
rainfall.

New Marginal Risk areas were added across much of the Great Lakes,
where training storms may cause isolated flash flooding, the
northeast corner of Colorado due to some upslope with the flow
turning southeasterly into an expected stationary front over that
area, and the third consecutive day of moderate rainfall across
much of central Montana, aided by increasing divergence ahead of a
potent shortwave moving across the Pacific Northwest by Friday
night. In each of these areas, only isolated flash flooding is
expected as the signal for heavy rain in these areas remains
diffuse.

Isolated to scattered disorganized convection is likely to impact
much of the eastern seaboard Friday afternoon with peak heating.
Given the increasing moisture moving up the coast, any storms that
remain in a given area for too long or backbuild along their cold
pools could cause isolated instances of flash flooding. Given a
lack of discernible forcing, for now have left the area out of a
Marginal citing a less than 5% chance of flash flooding, but the
threat is non-zero. The Marginal may need to be expanded eastward
across much of the eastern seaboard in the coming days should
current trends continue.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-7I6kC__p8tokgLM-ak7eYH8WRP-KAxwQC_FvLOLqF-B= et5qm5ww9uyVpEmnCkX5FyqteD6MzvcaHLH9J02QMKtWeD4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-7I6kC__p8tokgLM-ak7eYH8WRP-KAxwQC_FvLOLqF-B= et5qm5ww9uyVpEmnCkX5FyqteD6MzvcaHLH9J02Qiqi9iqo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-7I6kC__p8tokgLM-ak7eYH8WRP-KAxwQC_FvLOLqF-B= et5qm5ww9uyVpEmnCkX5FyqteD6MzvcaHLH9J02QvDmLKz8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 120038
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Texas...
23Z Update: Tweaks were made to the outlook areas based on late
afternoon observational trends, but mostly due to the recent trends
in the guidance -- in particular the recent HRRR/RRFS as well as
the 18Z HREF. This resulted in a subtle southward shift in both the
Moderate and Slight Risk areas across portions of South and South-
Central TX, with the Moderate Risk area now encompassing both the
Austin and San Antonio metro areas.

Across the Moderate Risk area, increasing large-scale ascent
overnight ahead of the slow-moving upper shortwave along with a
favorable thermodynamic profile (PWs aoa 2" and MUCAPEs 1500-2000
J/Kg) will make for highly efficient warm rain processes within a
ribbon of strong low-level moisture transport (+2 to 2.5 standard
deviations above normal). Meanwhile, easterly QLCS progression will
likely retard somewhat overnight as per the shrinking Corfidi
Vectors, as the LLJ increases and veers, aligning nearly parallel
and approaching the same magnitude of the mean 850-300 mb flow.
This will enhance the risk of cell training, which is expected to
maximize within the Moderate Risk area.

Per the latest (18Z) HREF, probabilities of 12hr rainfall exceeding
5" through 12Z Thu peak between 40-60% within the Moderate Risk
area, while isolated probabilities of 20-30% of >8" are also noted.

Hurley


..Previous Discussion..

...Texas...
16Z Update: The forecast premise remains the same with 12z CAMs
finally all catching on to a better degree of what has occurred,
what is occurring, and general expectations going forward. Expected
to see a redevelopment of convection across East-Central TX this
afternoon within a pocket of higher theta_E remaining over the I-45
corridor between DFW/HOU, aligned well within the higher CAPE,
lower CIN depiction on the recent RAP Mesoanalysis. This will
congeal and move northeast allowing for some of the areas hit hard
this morning to get hit again in wake of the departing complex
moving through the ArkLaTex. Multiple FFW's have occurred to the
southeast of the DFW metro, an area where local FFG's have taken a
hit over the past 24-36 hrs. This setup will allow for a continued
impact in those zones, so the MDT was expanded a bit further to the
northeast to account for the trends in the latest CAMs and
impacted areas.

ULL progression over West TX will maintain a posture of relatively
modest buoyancy returning over the Concho Valley down through the
eastern Edwards Plateau and adjacent Hill Country by late-afternoon
and evening. Stronger mid-level perturbations pivoting around the
ULL center will eventually rotate back around and provide a
significant increase in regional ascent within the above zone
leading to cell initiation back over areas hit pretty hard the past
24 hrs. Incredibly low FFG's (<1" over 1/3/6 hr intervals) are
centered over Hill Country with much of the CAMs depicting some
action moving back over the area creating an environment capable of
inducing flash flood prospects over the region as CAMs print out
1-2"/hr rates in some of the stronger convection in the area. By
the evening, the increasing large scale forcing will navigate into
Central TX with the I-35 corridor between DFW to San Antonio and 50
miles either side becoming the primary target for heavy rainfall.
Return flow within the 850-700mb level is expected to allow for
greater low-level convergence across the area with convection
orienting more southwest to northeast with some training prospects
along the tight theta_E gradient anticipated between eastern Hill
Country and the I-45 corridor. HREF blended mean QPF is very high
(3-5") within the I-35 corridor between Austin to Waco leading to
40-60% neighborhood probs for >5" over the area. Will need to
monitor for areas south of Austin as a secondary maxima down
towards New Braunfels and San Antonio has been showing up on
guidance with some of the higher probs for >5" also expanding into
that zone. With those locations inheriting higher FFG's, prospects
for flash flooding a bit less than those to the north, but a
higher-end SLGT is now forecast for that area with some potential
of an expansion of the MDT if trends continue.

The SLGT was removed over CRP and parts of Deep South TX in
conjunction with radar trends. The southern tip of TX, including
the Brownsville/McAllen area was removed from any ERO as the area
will maintain a relative min in QPF for the period.


...Gulf Coast through the Carolinas...
16Z Update: Minor expansion north of the MRGL across parts of the
Lower Mississippi Valley as 12z CAMs came in a bit north with the
heavier precip today. Still looking at locally robust rates of
2-3"/hr in the heaviest convection, but very much more pulse
variety as you align between Central LA across the South and up
into the VA Tidewater. Modest neighborhood probabilities for >3"
(35-50%) exist over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and Coastal NC,
so the threat for at least low-end MRGL persists. No changes we
made in those regions.


...Upper Midwest... 16Z Update: The MRGL was expanded a bit
eastward to include western Milwaukee metro, but otherwise the
threat remains on the low-end of MRGL. A relatively high
probability on the EAS of at least 1" across parts of Northern IA
and Southwest WI exist (60-80%), but a significant drop off in the
probs (<15%) for at least 2" means the threat is capped between
1-3" for the general max. With antecedent moisture pretty low over
the area, this is a setup coincident with a MRGL.


...Idaho/Montana...
16Z Update: PWATs running between 1.5-2.5 deviations above normal
across the Northern Rockies and interior PAC NW will lead to
locally heavy rainfall potential over Eastern OR through much of
ID/MT/WY this afternoon and early-evening before dissipating with
loss of diurnal heating. CAMs indicate the risk of 1-2" of rainfall
in heavier cores which would certainly cause problems in any urban
zones and remnant burn scares. The MRGL was expanded through WY
and adjusted a touch south. The threat remains sufficient for a
broad risk area given the environment in place.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...Arklatex Region & East Texas...

20Z Update: Modest expansion of the SLGT risk was necessary given
the forecast QPF footprint of the heavier returns as far south as
San Antonio and as far east as the middle TX coast. High-end SLGT
is forecast for much of East TX through the ArkLaTex where
antecedent soil moisture will be elevated after today's activity
with a large 2-4+" rainfall likely dropping area FFG's
significantly by this evening. 12z HREF neighborhood probabilities
are relatively high (20-40%) for >5" across the area between
CRP/EWX/HOU with a secondary probability maxima located over the
ArkLaTex (15-30%). Guidance is coming into alignment on the
heaviest precip being located in these two zones with scattered
high amounts in the middle of the two regions, mainly within the
I-45 corridor. A MDT risk was debated, but with the convective
scheme initially still under some uncertainty, did not want to
initiate an upgrade if trends in overnight QPF shift in positioning
or magnitude. HREF EAS signals are high for >1" but drop off
significantly when assessing >2", so there's still some discrepancy
on specifics. Like for the D1, if models trend more favorably for
any one area, there is a chance for a targeted upgrade over either
of the two regions. For now, a broad SLGT risk remains with
expansion through the Ozarks given the recent convective QPF trends
over the more sensitive area for flash flood prospects.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Strong southerly flow of deep Gulf moisture will continue across
east Texas and the Arklatex region on Thursday. There will very
likely be an ongoing MCS across eastern Texas at the start of the
period Thursday, which will progress eastward into Arkansas and
Louisiana through the day. There may be a lull in most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity for the afternoon hours in many
areas, but renewed activity will develop through the evening as the
LLJ restrengthens, and a slow moving upper level shortwave helps
drive a dryline east over Oklahoma and Texas, which will cause
numerous storms to form and organize into an MCS near the Arklatex
region through the overnight, as PWATs remain up near 2 inches,
promoting very heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. Once
again, this region has been hard hit with heavy rain in recent
days, and therefore this latest round of heavy rain will not take
much to result in flash flooding. Depending on how much rain falls
in this region on Day 1/Wednesday, it is possible a Moderate Risk
upgrade may be needed for this region as well as confidence
increases and the CAMs include the Thursday night period. There is
enough uncertainty as to how far west the storms are (which will be
highly dependent on the placement of the dryline), and therefore,
the Metroplex, Houston, and Austin remain included in a higher end
Slight Risk, which extends into the southeast corner of Oklahoma
and adjacent western Arkansas counties.

Wegman


...Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin...

20Z Update: The SLGT risk expansion to the north was initiated for
the afternoon update, once again with the general QPF maxima
bisecting the I-94 area and points west. A strong signal for >2" of
rainfall is now present within the latest HREF EAS prob fields
(40-60%), a testament to the consistency in CAMs with the placement
of the heaviest QPF maximum that's forecast. Areal average totals
of 2-3" are becoming more likely with the setup with local maxima
between 4-6" plausible as neighborhood probs for >5" run between
40-60%, as well across west-central MN. Training threat is the
reasoning for this potential with hourly rates likely between
1-2"/hr in the heaviest convective cores. Area FFG's are modest
within each 1/3/6 hr interval, but could still take some rainfall
initially prior to problems ensuing. Considering all of the above,
the SLGT risk was generally maintained, but did adjust the overall
risk area further west to account for the latest QPF shift in the
hi-res and bias corrected ensemble.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

At the nose of the upper level jet, a mesolow is likely to form
over the central Plains Thursday afternoon, which will then drift
northeast into Iowa on Thursday night. Abundant Gulf moisture will
ride northward ahead of the low, running into a strong stationary
front which will likely be set up over central Minnesota. This
front will provide the lift for training and backbuilding
thunderstorms across much of southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon
and evening. The storms appear likely to impact all of the Twin
Cities and surrounding suburbs, which when added to the wetter
soils from any rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday, may result in widely
scattered instances of flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was
nudged northward with this update, following the latest changes in
the ensemble guidance, but rainfall amounts are largely unchanged.

Wegman


...Carolina Piedmont through East Georgia...

A combination of elevated moisture across the Southeast and strong
differential heating away from the coastal plain will lead to a
corridor of enhanced SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg across
East GA up through the western half of the SC Piedmont. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms with relatively slow storm motions will
enhance locally heavy rainfall capabilities with rates between
2-3"/hr plausible in a few of the stronger cores. Urbanized zones
within the region referenced above will be the most susceptible for
flash flooding prospects with some of the latest CAMs going as high
as 4-6" in some of the greater outputs anticipated. A MRGL risk was
added to convey the threat and correlates well with the latest UFVS
First Guess Fields.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ARKLATEX
REGION INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

20Z Update: Main change in the period was a split of the MRGL risk
across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with now two separate risk
areas with a large nil between the areas of interest. The SLGT risk
threat with higher end potential still exists over the ArkLaTex
into the Arkansas Ozarks with a chance at a targeted upgrade given
the overlap signature of heavy rainfall (ArkLaTex) for 3
consecutive periods. Ensemble bias corrected QPF trended a bit
north with the heavier precip footprint, but this might be
attributed more to the bias of a few models likely too far north
with the expected maxima. Didn't deviate too far away from what was
inherited across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The MRGL risks in place are on the lower end of the threshold with
more isolated flash flood risks comparatively in either region.
Best risk will likely be over Northern WI up towards Duluth for the
Midwest MRGL and across MT for the western MRGL risk where ascent
pattern is most favorable.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

A slow-moving upper level trough will drift east across Oklahoma
and Arkansas through the period. It will draw on abundant Gulf
moisture with PWATs at or above 2 inches to force numerous slow
moving thunderstorms to develop from northeast Texas northeast to
the Mississippi-Ohio River confluence. The southerly flow will also
upslope into the Ozarks of central Arkansas, likely resulting in
localized increases in rainfall rates across much of Arkansas on
Friday and especially into Friday night. Given the expanded
eastward movement of the storms, the inherited Slight Risk was
expanded significantly north and east into the mid-Mississippi
Valley with this update. A higher-end Slight is in effect for the
Arklatex region through much of central Arkansas, where the
heaviest rainfall is expected. Periods of heavy rain across the
Arklatex and western Arkansas are expected from the Day 2/Thursday
period, which will greatly moisten the antecedent soil conditions
in advance of the heavy rainfall expected on Friday and Friday
night. Here too, a Moderate Risk upgrade may be needed with future
updates should the preponderance of guidance remain consistent at
targeting the Arklatex and central Arkansas with the heaviest
rainfall.

New Marginal Risk areas were added across much of the Great Lakes,
where training storms may cause isolated flash flooding, the
northeast corner of Colorado due to some upslope with the flow
turning southeasterly into an expected stationary front over that
area, and the third consecutive day of moderate rainfall across
much of central Montana, aided by increasing divergence ahead of a
potent shortwave moving across the Pacific Northwest by Friday
night. In each of these areas, only isolated flash flooding is
expected as the signal for heavy rain in these areas remains
diffuse.

Isolated to scattered disorganized convection is likely to impact
much of the eastern seaboard Friday afternoon with peak heating.
Given the increasing moisture moving up the coast, any storms that
remain in a given area for too long or backbuild along their cold
pools could cause isolated instances of flash flooding. Given a
lack of discernible forcing, for now have left the area out of a
Marginal citing a less than 5% chance of flash flooding, but the
threat is non-zero. The Marginal may need to be expanded eastward
across much of the eastern seaboard in the coming days should
current trends continue.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_c0AcTMP7YOOZmXeoqxhrk_JozxVzBByW0CMCyMcEX8p= XjOJ3_P9qBwb75RP0OxoXHZ7Br295OCiRv-DSvb5TRtnpew$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_c0AcTMP7YOOZmXeoqxhrk_JozxVzBByW0CMCyMcEX8p= XjOJ3_P9qBwb75RP0OxoXHZ7Br295OCiRv-DSvb5MqwR6WM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_c0AcTMP7YOOZmXeoqxhrk_JozxVzBByW0CMCyMcEX8p= XjOJ3_P9qBwb75RP0OxoXHZ7Br295OCiRv-DSvb5AkuX37k$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 120815
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...Texas through Arkansas...

In coordination with HGX/Houston, TX forecast office, a Moderate
Risk upgrade was introduced with this update. Convection blossoming
over central Texas right now is forming in response to increased
upper level divergence ahead of a sharp upper level trough over
west Texas. This trough is also supporting a potent LLJ advecting
deep tropical moisture out of the Gulf and into east Texas. This
steady supply of plentiful moisture along with a very slow-moving
upper level trough are both primary ingredients for slow-moving
thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Storm
coverage will continue to increase so that by the start of the
period later this morning, a well-defined MCS will have developed
north and west of Houston. The storms will build southeastward
towards the Gulf as they advect towards the moisture and
instability source. Additional storms forming along the coast will
also advect north into the MCS. Since the southerly flow associated
with the LLJ will continue through the day, this will promote
backbuilding storms along the cold pools of the existing storms,
resulting in new activity. The result will be several hours of
heavy rainfall in some areas, which even in areas with higher FFGs,
are likely to be exceeded due to the prolonged duration of heavy
rain in any one area.

On the south side of the MCS, the backbuilding storms may form an
east-west oriented line which could train over the areas that part
of the line moves over. This will locally further enhance any flash
flooding threat, which would be enhanced further should it occur
over Houston or another urban area. Antecedent soil conditions have
already been saturated in many areas of southeast Texas, so this
additional rainfall could cause flash flooding quickly.

The MCS will gradually develop into a southeastward moving line
through the morning hours, which should gradually reduce the flash
flooding threat as the storms approach the Louisiana state line.
Urban concerns in and around Houston will also increase the flash
flooding threat. The good news is by midday or so, the line will be
diminishing and will be moving largely orthogonal to the
orientation of the line, which will greatly decrease the time any
one area sees heavy rain. Further, instability and competing
sources of forcing should disrupt the MCS in typical diurnal
fashion. This too should work to reduce the flash flooding threat.
Thus, the Moderate Risk is really just for the morning and early
afternoon, and will likely be able to be downgraded this afternoon.

Further north into Arkansas, the northern end of the MCS will cause
additional storms to form across the state this morning. Most
areas will see a break through the day, but additional convection
forming this afternoon through tonight behind a developing mesolow
will add to the precipitation totals. Further topographic
influences with the Ozarks may add upsloping to the forcing
mechanisms. Thus, expect a secondary "bullseye" of heavy rainfall
across much of central to southwestern Arkansas. The Slight Risk
area was adjusted eastward with this update as the guidance better
resolves the ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity. The risk
areas were generally reduced from the DFW Metroplex west, and
increased in central Louisiana and central Arkansas. A higher-end
Slight is in effect for the area from the Moderate Risk north and
east into central Arkansas.

...Northern Plains...

At the northernmost head of the LLJ of deep tropical moisture out
of the Gulf across Minnesota, the plume of moisture will run into a
warm front that will add lift to the atmosphere as the moisture
runs up the frontal interface. Divergence aloft in the right
entrance region of a 120 kt jet will also support shower and
thunderstorm development in the fast upper level westerly flow
associated with the jet. Shower and thunderstorm activity have
already broken out along the Minnesota/Iowa border this morning. As
the warm front lifts north through the day, the coverage of
rainfall will diminish a bit with daytime heating disrupting the
synoptic scale lift in favor of much more chaotic local forcings.
By tonight however, as the typical diurnal LLJ reestablishes=20
itself, showers and thunderstorms will once again redevelop, but=20
this time further north into central Minnesota, and likely near the
Twin Cities. The strengthening supply of moisture associated with=20
the LLJ will support backbuilding and training storms, as the cold=20
pools work to lock where the storms form in place, despite the=20
continued northeastward movement of the synoptic-scale warm front.=20
This will support a rather narrow (50-80 mile wide) corridor where=20
heavy rain on the order of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts=20
are expected tonight. This should cause widely scattered instances=20
of flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was nudged northward with=20
this update in keeping with the latest suite of guidance, which has
been struggling with where to place the warm-front related=20
convection on the map for the last few days.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS...

The very slow moving upper level trough will continue to drift
across Missouri and Arkansas through the period. Continued
northward advection of deep tropical moisture will run into the
Ozarks as a dryline also gradually pushes east out of the Plains.
The combination of each of these forcings over an area with
topography and likely very wet antecedent soil conditions will all
support continued potential for scattered instances of flash
flooding across much of Arkansas. The heaviest rain will likely
hold off until after midnight Friday night, with the diurnal
strengthening of the low level jet, a faster push of the dryline
and associated sharp gradient in moisture, as well as the peak
divergence as the upper level shortwave trough amplifies a bit.
All of these support the continuation of the Slight Risk over
Arkansas, which was shrunk a bit due to better confidence in the
placement of the heaviest rain, allowing areas further north
towards Paducah to be dropped from the Slight Risk. With the
wettest soils in Arkansas from about Little Rock west, this area
was maintained in a higher-end Slight with this update.

Elsewhere, lingering rain from Minnesota east through the U.P. will
support isolated instances of flash flooding in that region,
largely on Friday morning. A new Marginal Risk was introduced from
southeast Virginia through the Carolinas and into Georgia. While
convection in this area will likely remain disorganized and
dominated by cold pool forcings, the abundance of moisture on the
order of over 2 inches of PWAT will still favor any storms that
form having the capability of multiple inch per hour rainfall
rates. The Marginal from Montana to northeast Colorado was
maintained with minimal changes along the western interface of the
deeper moisture over much of the Plains.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...Arkansas through Alabama...

After multiple days of shower and thunderstorm activity in this
area, there should be some decrease in the organization of the
overall shower and thunderstorm activity expected Saturday from
Arkansas east through Alabama. Despite that decrease, very wet
soils through Mississippi and a lingering frontal boundary
providing some forcing should still lead to enough organization to
support widely scattered instances of flash flooding. For this
region, a Slight Risk area was introduced for Arkansas and
Mississippi with this update. The flash flooding risk has likely
decreased a bit due to a lack of upper level support by Saturday,
so the Slight Risk remains a lower end Slight. Plentiful moisture
over 1.5 inches of PWAT will still support any storms that do form
to be capable of heavy rainfall. Further, a lack of forcing and
organization will increase the time any storms may impact any one
area, to include much of the period, day and night. In other words,
there isn't one specific period of time where the threat for heavy
rain and subsequent flash flooding is significantly higher than any
other point.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A second signal for heavy rain has shown in the guidance across
northern Virginia and into portions of the Tidewater. A slow,
southward moving front over PA will interact with the divergence
ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough that caused the problems
with flooding further west the past couple days. Since this signal
is relatively new and highly subject to change, a Slight risk
upgrade has not yet been introduced, but is being considered.
Should the heavy rain signal drift north to the DMV area, then a
Slight Risk will likely be needed.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_thF755kK_pkRvE5GsnQa9mfxSxwFw9EPyBvhicxFvmy= JSSh4Otw83-2zOg2maESmIGjB1iGLbrR8jJuEfYsN5u3eic$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_thF755kK_pkRvE5GsnQa9mfxSxwFw9EPyBvhicxFvmy= JSSh4Otw83-2zOg2maESmIGjB1iGLbrR8jJuEfYsNiBrxlE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_thF755kK_pkRvE5GsnQa9mfxSxwFw9EPyBvhicxFvmy= JSSh4Otw83-2zOg2maESmIGjB1iGLbrR8jJuEfYsipZxt7E$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 121534
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1134 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...Texas through Arkansas...

16Z Update: The general expectation for the MDT risk inherited has
come to fruition this morning leading to only necessitating a
formal "trimming away" of areas that have already been impacted and
will see no additional threats this period. The MDT risk is now
more confined to the middle and upper TX coasts with a minor
expansion to the northeast to include the Beaumont area. MUCAPE=20
gradient is well-documented within both the latest Mesoanalysis and
the derived GOES-East satellite parameter. Values between=20
1000-2000 J/kg are still situated within the confines of the MCS=20
over the middle TX coast with a 2000-3000 J/kg signature still=20
aligned upwind of the flanking line extending back inland. Cloud=20
streaks moving northward across Deep South TX depict a sufficient=20
moisture advection pattern continuing across the region and will=20
play a role in the convective maintenance through the next 2-4=20
hrs. The good news is the cold pool associated with the setup is=20
already starting to race out into the Gulf on the northern flank of
the complex with the back edge beginning to see some advancement=20
of the outflow ahead of the main line which will likely degrade the
convective pattern later this afternoon. As a result of the=20
evolution, a sharp delineation of the convective threat for the=20
rest of the period has materialized with a likely diffusion of the=20
heavier rain prospects between 18-21z as noted via 12z CAMs output.
4-8" with locally 10-15" of rainfall are plausible when the entire
event is done for areas southwest of Houston to back along the=20
flanking line. Rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are possible within the=20
strongest convective cores over the next few hrs before the
degradation of the overall setup. Anticipating a removal of a lot
of the risk area across coastal TX back into the I-35 corridor
later as the threat wanes, so will be monitoring closely for that
specific adjustment.=20

Across Northeast TX into the ArkLaTex, MCV propagating to the
north-northeast has allowed for a narrow band of heavier rainfall
within the convergent sector of the low to mid-level circulation.
This will continue to press north over the next several hrs with
flares of additional heavier convective cores basically maintaining
precedence through the afternoon and early evening. 2-4" areal
average with totals as high as 5" are possible across the ArkLaTex
through Arkansas today as additional waves of convection will
propagate northward behind the vacating MCV leading to a
compounding effect of heavy rainfall on saturated soils. The best
chance for flash flooding will be within those urban zones and
areas that have received significant rainfall the past 24 hrs.
Considering the favorable output already, and the expectation as
depicted from CAMs, the SLGT risk with higher-end threshold is
still forecast over the above zones. A small expansion on the
northern periphery of the SLGT and MRGL risks was also made to
account for the latest HREF mean QPF signature and small adjustment
north of the better probs for greater than 2" and 3".=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

In coordination with HGX/Houston, TX forecast office, a Moderate
Risk upgrade was introduced with this update. Convection blossoming
over central Texas right now is forming in response to increased
upper level divergence ahead of a sharp upper level trough over
west Texas. This trough is also supporting a potent LLJ advecting
deep tropical moisture out of the Gulf and into east Texas. This
steady supply of plentiful moisture along with a very slow-moving
upper level trough are both primary ingredients for slow-moving
thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Storm
coverage will continue to increase so that by the start of the
period later this morning, a well-defined MCS will have developed
north and west of Houston. The storms will build southeastward
towards the Gulf as they advect towards the moisture and
instability source. Additional storms forming along the coast will
also advect north into the MCS. Since the southerly flow associated
with the LLJ will continue through the day, this will promote
backbuilding storms along the cold pools of the existing storms,
resulting in new activity. The result will be several hours of
heavy rainfall in some areas, which even in areas with higher FFGs,
are likely to be exceeded due to the prolonged duration of heavy
rain in any one area.

On the south side of the MCS, the backbuilding storms may form an
east-west oriented line which could train over the areas that part
of the line moves over. This will locally further enhance any flash
flooding threat, which would be enhanced further should it occur
over Houston or another urban area. Antecedent soil conditions have
already been saturated in many areas of southeast Texas, so this
additional rainfall could cause flash flooding quickly.

The MCS will gradually develop into a southeastward moving line
through the morning hours, which should gradually reduce the flash
flooding threat as the storms approach the Louisiana state line.
Urban concerns in and around Houston will also increase the flash
flooding threat. The good news is by midday or so, the line will be
diminishing and will be moving largely orthogonal to the
orientation of the line, which will greatly decrease the time any
one area sees heavy rain. Further, instability and competing
sources of forcing should disrupt the MCS in typical diurnal
fashion. This too should work to reduce the flash flooding threat.
Thus, the Moderate Risk is really just for the morning and early
afternoon, and will likely be able to be downgraded this afternoon.

Further north into Arkansas, the northern end of the MCS will cause
additional storms to form across the state this morning. Most
areas will see a break through the day, but additional convection
forming this afternoon through tonight behind a developing mesolow
will add to the precipitation totals. Further topographic
influences with the Ozarks may add upsloping to the forcing
mechanisms. Thus, expect a secondary "bullseye" of heavy rainfall
across much of central to southwestern Arkansas. The Slight Risk
area was adjusted eastward with this update as the guidance better
resolves the ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity. The risk
areas were generally reduced from the DFW Metroplex west, and
increased in central Louisiana and central Arkansas. A higher-end
Slight is in effect for the area from the Moderate Risk north and
east into central Arkansas.

Wegman


...Northern Plains...

16Z Update: Only minor adjustments necessary for the inherited SLGT
and MRGL risk areas across the northern tier of the CONUS. The
forecast remains steadfast overall with little deviation in the
expected heavy rain axis to be located within the northern
periphery of a strong 850mb FGEN band situated west to east across
the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. 12z HREF EAS prob
fields for at least 2" is pretty high (40-60%), which is a
testament to the agreement within the CAMs suite on the placement
of the heavier precip threat. Rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr will
be common in the strongest convective cores, and with training
potential elevated due to parallel alignment of the mean wind to
the surface/low-level based forcing mechanism(s), this will lead to
a narrow axis of 2-4" with locally up to 5-6" plausible over the
course of the late-afternoon and evening time frames when the event
takes shape. Isolated flash flood concerns will extend as far
northwest as MT with remnant shortwaves and modest instability
maintaining a persistent convective presence during the course of
the period with the best chances likely developing after 19z.=20

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

At the northernmost head of the LLJ of deep tropical moisture out
of the Gulf across Minnesota, the plume of moisture will run into a
warm front that will add lift to the atmosphere as the moisture
runs up the frontal interface. Divergence aloft in the right
entrance region of a 120 kt jet will also support shower and
thunderstorm development in the fast upper level westerly flow
associated with the jet. Shower and thunderstorm activity have
already broken out along the Minnesota/Iowa border this morning. As
the warm front lifts north through the day, the coverage of
rainfall will diminish a bit with daytime heating disrupting the
synoptic scale lift in favor of much more chaotic local forcings.
By tonight however, as the typical diurnal LLJ reestablishes
itself, showers and thunderstorms will once again redevelop, but
this time further north into central Minnesota, and likely near the
Twin Cities. The strengthening supply of moisture associated with
the LLJ will support backbuilding and training storms, as the cold
pools work to lock where the storms form in place, despite the
continued northeastward movement of the synoptic-scale warm front.
This will support a rather narrow (50-80 mile wide) corridor where
heavy rain on the order of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts
are expected tonight. This should cause widely scattered instances
of flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was nudged northward with
this update in keeping with the latest suite of guidance, which has
been struggling with where to place the warm-front related
convection on the map for the last few days.

Wegman


...Southeast U.S...

A combination of elevated moisture across the Southeast and strong
differential heating away from the coastal plain will lead to a
corridor of enhanced SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg across
GA up through the Continental Divide in the Southern Mid Atlantic.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with relatively slow storm=20
motions will enhance locally heavy rainfall capabilities with rates
between 2-3"/hr plausible in a few of the stronger cores.=20
Urbanized zones within the region referenced above will be the most
susceptible for flash flooding prospects with some of the latest=20
CAMs going as high as 4-5" in some of the greater outputs=20
anticipated. A MRGL risk is in place for the areas above with a=20
minor expansion on the southern and western edge of the inherited=20
risk.=20

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS...

The very slow moving upper level trough will continue to drift
across Missouri and Arkansas through the period. Continued
northward advection of deep tropical moisture will run into the
Ozarks as a dryline also gradually pushes east out of the Plains.
The combination of each of these forcings over an area with
topography and likely very wet antecedent soil conditions will all
support continued potential for scattered instances of flash
flooding across much of Arkansas. The heaviest rain will likely
hold off until after midnight Friday night, with the diurnal
strengthening of the low level jet, a faster push of the dryline
and associated sharp gradient in moisture, as well as the peak
divergence as the upper level shortwave trough amplifies a bit.
All of these support the continuation of the Slight Risk over
Arkansas, which was shrunk a bit due to better confidence in the
placement of the heaviest rain, allowing areas further north
towards Paducah to be dropped from the Slight Risk. With the
wettest soils in Arkansas from about Little Rock west, this area
was maintained in a higher-end Slight with this update.

Elsewhere, lingering rain from Minnesota east through the U.P. will
support isolated instances of flash flooding in that region,
largely on Friday morning. A new Marginal Risk was introduced from
southeast Virginia through the Carolinas and into Georgia. While
convection in this area will likely remain disorganized and
dominated by cold pool forcings, the abundance of moisture on the
order of over 2 inches of PWAT will still favor any storms that
form having the capability of multiple inch per hour rainfall
rates. The Marginal from Montana to northeast Colorado was
maintained with minimal changes along the western interface of the
deeper moisture over much of the Plains.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...Arkansas through Alabama...

After multiple days of shower and thunderstorm activity in this
area, there should be some decrease in the organization of the
overall shower and thunderstorm activity expected Saturday from
Arkansas east through Alabama. Despite that decrease, very wet
soils through Mississippi and a lingering frontal boundary
providing some forcing should still lead to enough organization to
support widely scattered instances of flash flooding. For this
region, a Slight Risk area was introduced for Arkansas and
Mississippi with this update. The flash flooding risk has likely
decreased a bit due to a lack of upper level support by Saturday,
so the Slight Risk remains a lower end Slight. Plentiful moisture
over 1.5 inches of PWAT will still support any storms that do form
to be capable of heavy rainfall. Further, a lack of forcing and
organization will increase the time any storms may impact any one
area, to include much of the period, day and night. In other words,
there isn't one specific period of time where the threat for heavy
rain and subsequent flash flooding is significantly higher than any
other point.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A second signal for heavy rain has shown in the guidance across
northern Virginia and into portions of the Tidewater. A slow,
southward moving front over PA will interact with the divergence
ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough that caused the problems
with flooding further west the past couple days. Since this signal
is relatively new and highly subject to change, a Slight risk
upgrade has not yet been introduced, but is being considered.
Should the heavy rain signal drift north to the DMV area, then a
Slight Risk will likely be needed.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Cgrj3qKAuD-HkFzQHvmTb0O_E0Hesp6lP5VxWstDj_1= uTo7CzGG-d5VqQbD_eOLvjmmV8YP82UBxeZ1EEsP9ePuHS4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Cgrj3qKAuD-HkFzQHvmTb0O_E0Hesp6lP5VxWstDj_1= uTo7CzGG-d5VqQbD_eOLvjmmV8YP82UBxeZ1EEsPSbN6Az0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Cgrj3qKAuD-HkFzQHvmTb0O_E0Hesp6lP5VxWstDj_1= uTo7CzGG-d5VqQbD_eOLvjmmV8YP82UBxeZ1EEsP3baNZqM$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 122002
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...Texas through Arkansas...

16Z Update: The general expectation for the MDT risk inherited has
come to fruition this morning leading to only necessitating a
formal "trimming away" of areas that have already been impacted and
will see no additional threats this period. The MDT risk is now
more confined to the middle and upper TX coasts with a minor
expansion to the northeast to include the Beaumont area. MUCAPE
gradient is well-documented within both the latest Mesoanalysis and
the derived GOES-East satellite parameter. Values between
1000-2000 J/kg are still situated within the confines of the MCS
over the middle TX coast with a 2000-3000 J/kg signature still
aligned upwind of the flanking line extending back inland. Cloud
streaks moving northward across Deep South TX depict a sufficient
moisture advection pattern continuing across the region and will
play a role in the convective maintenance through the next 2-4
hrs. The good news is the cold pool associated with the setup is
already starting to race out into the Gulf on the northern flank of
the complex with the back edge beginning to see some advancement
of the outflow ahead of the main line which will likely degrade the
convective pattern later this afternoon. As a result of the
evolution, a sharp delineation of the convective threat for the
rest of the period has materialized with a likely diffusion of the
heavier rain prospects between 18-21z as noted via 12z CAMs output.
4-8" with locally 10-15" of rainfall are plausible when the entire
event is done for areas southwest of Houston to back along the
flanking line. Rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are possible within the
strongest convective cores over the next few hrs before the
degradation of the overall setup. Anticipating a removal of a lot
of the risk area across coastal TX back into the I-35 corridor
later as the threat wanes, so will be monitoring closely for that
specific adjustment.

Across Northeast TX into the ArkLaTex, MCV propagating to the
north-northeast has allowed for a narrow band of heavier rainfall
within the convergent sector of the low to mid-level circulation.
This will continue to press north over the next several hrs with
flares of additional heavier convective cores basically maintaining
precedence through the afternoon and early evening. 2-4" areal
average with totals as high as 5" are possible across the ArkLaTex
through Arkansas today as additional waves of convection will
propagate northward behind the vacating MCV leading to a
compounding effect of heavy rainfall on saturated soils. The best
chance for flash flooding will be within those urban zones and
areas that have received significant rainfall the past 24 hrs.
Considering the favorable output already, and the expectation as
depicted from CAMs, the SLGT risk with higher-end threshold is
still forecast over the above zones. A small expansion on the
northern periphery of the SLGT and MRGL risks was also made to
account for the latest HREF mean QPF signature and small adjustment
north of the better probs for greater than 2" and 3".

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

In coordination with HGX/Houston, TX forecast office, a Moderate
Risk upgrade was introduced with this update. Convection blossoming
over central Texas right now is forming in response to increased
upper level divergence ahead of a sharp upper level trough over
west Texas. This trough is also supporting a potent LLJ advecting
deep tropical moisture out of the Gulf and into east Texas. This
steady supply of plentiful moisture along with a very slow-moving
upper level trough are both primary ingredients for slow-moving
thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Storm
coverage will continue to increase so that by the start of the
period later this morning, a well-defined MCS will have developed
north and west of Houston. The storms will build southeastward
towards the Gulf as they advect towards the moisture and
instability source. Additional storms forming along the coast will
also advect north into the MCS. Since the southerly flow associated
with the LLJ will continue through the day, this will promote
backbuilding storms along the cold pools of the existing storms,
resulting in new activity. The result will be several hours of
heavy rainfall in some areas, which even in areas with higher FFGs,
are likely to be exceeded due to the prolonged duration of heavy
rain in any one area.

On the south side of the MCS, the backbuilding storms may form an
east-west oriented line which could train over the areas that part
of the line moves over. This will locally further enhance any flash
flooding threat, which would be enhanced further should it occur
over Houston or another urban area. Antecedent soil conditions have
already been saturated in many areas of southeast Texas, so this
additional rainfall could cause flash flooding quickly.

The MCS will gradually develop into a southeastward moving line
through the morning hours, which should gradually reduce the flash
flooding threat as the storms approach the Louisiana state line.
Urban concerns in and around Houston will also increase the flash
flooding threat. The good news is by midday or so, the line will be
diminishing and will be moving largely orthogonal to the
orientation of the line, which will greatly decrease the time any
one area sees heavy rain. Further, instability and competing
sources of forcing should disrupt the MCS in typical diurnal
fashion. This too should work to reduce the flash flooding threat.
Thus, the Moderate Risk is really just for the morning and early
afternoon, and will likely be able to be downgraded this afternoon.

Further north into Arkansas, the northern end of the MCS will cause
additional storms to form across the state this morning. Most
areas will see a break through the day, but additional convection
forming this afternoon through tonight behind a developing mesolow
will add to the precipitation totals. Further topographic
influences with the Ozarks may add upsloping to the forcing
mechanisms. Thus, expect a secondary "bullseye" of heavy rainfall
across much of central to southwestern Arkansas. The Slight Risk
area was adjusted eastward with this update as the guidance better
resolves the ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity. The risk
areas were generally reduced from the DFW Metroplex west, and
increased in central Louisiana and central Arkansas. A higher-end
Slight is in effect for the area from the Moderate Risk north and
east into central Arkansas.

Wegman


...Northern Plains...

16Z Update: Only minor adjustments necessary for the inherited SLGT
and MRGL risk areas across the northern tier of the CONUS. The
forecast remains steadfast overall with little deviation in the
expected heavy rain axis to be located within the northern
periphery of a strong 850mb FGEN band situated west to east across
the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. 12z HREF EAS prob
fields for at least 2" is pretty high (40-60%), which is a
testament to the agreement within the CAMs suite on the placement
of the heavier precip threat. Rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr will
be common in the strongest convective cores, and with training
potential elevated due to parallel alignment of the mean wind to
the surface/low-level based forcing mechanism(s), this will lead to
a narrow axis of 2-4" with locally up to 5-6" plausible over the
course of the late-afternoon and evening time frames when the event
takes shape. Isolated flash flood concerns will extend as far
northwest as MT with remnant shortwaves and modest instability
maintaining a persistent convective presence during the course of
the period with the best chances likely developing after 19z.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

At the northernmost head of the LLJ of deep tropical moisture out
of the Gulf across Minnesota, the plume of moisture will run into a
warm front that will add lift to the atmosphere as the moisture
runs up the frontal interface. Divergence aloft in the right
entrance region of a 120 kt jet will also support shower and
thunderstorm development in the fast upper level westerly flow
associated with the jet. Shower and thunderstorm activity have
already broken out along the Minnesota/Iowa border this morning. As
the warm front lifts north through the day, the coverage of
rainfall will diminish a bit with daytime heating disrupting the
synoptic scale lift in favor of much more chaotic local forcings.
By tonight however, as the typical diurnal LLJ reestablishes
itself, showers and thunderstorms will once again redevelop, but
this time further north into central Minnesota, and likely near the
Twin Cities. The strengthening supply of moisture associated with
the LLJ will support backbuilding and training storms, as the cold
pools work to lock where the storms form in place, despite the
continued northeastward movement of the synoptic-scale warm front.
This will support a rather narrow (50-80 mile wide) corridor where
heavy rain on the order of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts
are expected tonight. This should cause widely scattered instances
of flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was nudged northward with
this update in keeping with the latest suite of guidance, which has
been struggling with where to place the warm-front related
convection on the map for the last few days.

Wegman


...Southeast U.S...

A combination of elevated moisture across the Southeast and strong
differential heating away from the coastal plain will lead to a
corridor of enhanced SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg across
GA up through the Continental Divide in the Southern Mid Atlantic.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with relatively slow storm
motions will enhance locally heavy rainfall capabilities with rates
between 2-3"/hr plausible in a few of the stronger cores.
Urbanized zones within the region referenced above will be the most
susceptible for flash flooding prospects with some of the latest
CAMs going as high as 4-5" in some of the greater outputs
anticipated. A MRGL risk is in place for the areas above with a
minor expansion on the southern and western edge of the inherited
risk.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS...

...Arkansas/Mid-South...

Slowly-moving upper low will be centered over the Ozarks Friday
morning and drifting northeastward amid a very moisture-laden
environment. Instability will remain modest as the cool core passes
through, which will support another round of afternoon storms
(following rainfall today) with rainfall rates of 1-2.5"/hr.=20
Increase in LLJ overnight tomorrow night may again enhance some=20
rainfall over the area, and have maintained the Slight Risk for=20
excessive rainfall over the region with a small extension=20 eastward/northeastward into the stronger IVT zone. Soils are wet=20
and FFG values will lower today/tonight, leaving the area=20
(especially in the hillier terrain) more susceptible to=20
localized/scattered instances of flooding. With the wettest soils=20
in Arkansas from about Little Rock west, this area was maintained=20
in an internally-denoted higher-end Slight Risk.=20


...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

Expanded the Marginal Risk northward to near the PA border and
westward into eastern West Virginia given an increase in QPF from
the 12Z guidance. Frontal boundary sinking southward will stall
over the region, acting as a focus for heavier rain and rates
(1-2"/hr) where it has been rather wet coming out of May. Over VA
into the Carolinas, PW values will remain elevated (1.75-2.00") and
some localized flash flooding is possible. CSU Machine Learning ERO
guidance shows a small Slight Risk area from near the DC Metro area
southward, so this area will need to be watched further.

...Northern WI/Michigan U.P....

Area of low pressure moving eastward through MN may help drive a
small risk for heavier rainfall over northern WI into the U.P.
Friday morning, but instability is limited.=20

...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...

The Marginal from Montana to northeast Colorado was maintained=20
with minimal changes along the western interface of the deeper=20
moisture over much of the Plains.=20

Fracasso/Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...Arkansas through Alabama...

After multiple days of shower and thunderstorm activity in this
area, there should be some decrease in the organization of the
overall shower and thunderstorm activity expected Saturday from
Arkansas east through Alabama. Despite that decrease, very wet
soils through Mississippi and a lingering frontal boundary
providing some forcing should still lead to enough organization to
support widely scattered instances of flash flooding. The Slight=20
Risk area was maintained for Arkansas and Mississippi to capture
the early morning rainfall potential and due to previous expected
rainfall (and lower FFG values). Plentiful moisture over 1.5=20
inches of PWAT will still support any storms that do form to be=20
capable of heavy rainfall.=20

...Mid-Atlantic...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area much of the Midwest to Mid-
Atlantic that remains in a moisture-laden environment near and
south of a frontal boundary. Targeted upgrades to Slight Risks may
be warranted pending rainfall distribution over the next two days
(especially over areas that have above normal soil moisture). CSU
Machine Learning ERO guidance does show a Slight Risk over northern
VA so this will be monitored in future shifts.

Fracasso/Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-op0PBiZVctE8T_Ck9Xj-3ORHNd0BGGihOIxvzphA7ha= scX_xl4JswLCNi_pvh7jVz1ph2svG6huroHK35CMVTaQFYo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-op0PBiZVctE8T_Ck9Xj-3ORHNd0BGGihOIxvzphA7ha= scX_xl4JswLCNi_pvh7jVz1ph2svG6huroHK35CMsI34UJA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-op0PBiZVctE8T_Ck9Xj-3ORHNd0BGGihOIxvzphA7ha= scX_xl4JswLCNi_pvh7jVz1ph2svG6huroHK35CMh_6ZXKI$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 130100
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF=20
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...Mid-Upper Texas Coast into the Lower-Mid Mississippi Valley...

01Z Update: As the shortwave slowly pivots towards and eventually=20
east of the ArkLaTex, broad-scale subsidence/NVA will push into the
area from the west. This along with the general airmass=20
stabilization following the MCS earlier today will lead to a more=20
limited flash flood risk heading into the overnight period -- even=20
with some return low-level flow off the Gulf (albeit weak). The=20
latest CAM guidance, including recent HRRR and RRFS runs, are=20
fairly light with additional rainfall overnight along areas hit=20
hard earlier (Mid-Upper TX Coast); however, given the heavy=20
rainfall earlier and thus low FFG values, will maintain a Marginal=20
Risk area over what was a Moderate.

Elsewhere, downstream of the slow-moving upper trough do anticipate
a localized risk of flash flooding within the diffuse, secondary
Warm Conveyor Belt off the Gulf and into the mid-level deformation
axis/comma head pivoting across northern AR and southern MO.=20

Hurley

...Northern Plains...

16Z Update: Only minor adjustments necessary for the inherited SLGT
and MRGL risk areas across the northern tier of the CONUS. The
forecast remains steadfast overall with little deviation in the
expected heavy rain axis to be located within the northern
periphery of a strong 850mb FGEN band situated west to east across
the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. 12z HREF EAS prob
fields for at least 2" is pretty high (40-60%), which is a
testament to the agreement within the CAMs suite on the placement
of the heavier precip threat. Rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr will
be common in the strongest convective cores, and with training
potential elevated due to parallel alignment of the mean wind to
the surface/low-level based forcing mechanism(s), this will lead to
a narrow axis of 2-4" with locally up to 5-6" plausible over the
course of the late-afternoon and evening time frames when the event
takes shape. Isolated flash flood concerns will extend as far
northwest as MT with remnant shortwaves and modest instability
maintaining a persistent convective presence during the course of
the period with the best chances likely developing after 19z.

Kleebauer


...Southeast U.S...

A combination of elevated moisture across the Southeast and strong
differential heating away from the coastal plain will lead to a
corridor of enhanced SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg across
GA up through the Continental Divide in the Southern Mid Atlantic.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with relatively slow storm
motions will enhance locally heavy rainfall capabilities with rates
between 2-3"/hr plausible in a few of the stronger cores.
Urbanized zones within the region referenced above will be the most
susceptible for flash flooding prospects with some of the latest
CAMs going as high as 4-5" in some of the greater outputs
anticipated. A MRGL risk is in place for the areas above with a
minor expansion on the southern and western edge of the inherited
risk.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS...

...Arkansas/Mid-South...

Slowly-moving upper low will be centered over the Ozarks Friday
morning and drifting northeastward amid a very moisture-laden
environment. Instability will remain modest as the cool core passes
through, which will support another round of afternoon storms
(following rainfall today) with rainfall rates of 1-2.5"/hr.
Increase in LLJ overnight tomorrow night may again enhance some
rainfall over the area, and have maintained the Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall over the region with a small extension eastward/northeastward into the stronger IVT zone. Soils are wet
and FFG values will lower today/tonight, leaving the area
(especially in the hillier terrain) more susceptible to
localized/scattered instances of flooding. With the wettest soils
in Arkansas from about Little Rock west, this area was maintained
in an internally-denoted higher-end Slight Risk.


...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

Expanded the Marginal Risk northward to near the PA border and
westward into eastern West Virginia given an increase in QPF from
the 12Z guidance. Frontal boundary sinking southward will stall
over the region, acting as a focus for heavier rain and rates
(1-2"/hr) where it has been rather wet coming out of May. Over VA
into the Carolinas, PW values will remain elevated (1.75-2.00") and
some localized flash flooding is possible. CSU Machine Learning ERO
guidance shows a small Slight Risk area from near the DC Metro area
southward, so this area will need to be watched further.

...Northern WI/Michigan U.P....

Area of low pressure moving eastward through MN may help drive a
small risk for heavier rainfall over northern WI into the U.P.
Friday morning, but instability is limited.

...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...

The Marginal from Montana to northeast Colorado was maintained
with minimal changes along the western interface of the deeper
moisture over much of the Plains.

Fracasso/Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...Arkansas through Alabama...

After multiple days of shower and thunderstorm activity in this
area, there should be some decrease in the organization of the
overall shower and thunderstorm activity expected Saturday from
Arkansas east through Alabama. Despite that decrease, very wet
soils through Mississippi and a lingering frontal boundary
providing some forcing should still lead to enough organization to
support widely scattered instances of flash flooding. The Slight
Risk area was maintained for Arkansas and Mississippi to capture
the early morning rainfall potential and due to previous expected
rainfall (and lower FFG values). Plentiful moisture over 1.5
inches of PWAT will still support any storms that do form to be
capable of heavy rainfall.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area much of the Midwest to Mid-
Atlantic that remains in a moisture-laden environment near and
south of a frontal boundary. Targeted upgrades to Slight Risks may
be warranted pending rainfall distribution over the next two days
(especially over areas that have above normal soil moisture). CSU
Machine Learning ERO guidance does show a Slight Risk over northern
VA so this will be monitored in future shifts.

Fracasso/Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4xt_EiXqjGMNeX0mjrHnOcl4CZ6nN2zNWWTCkco5B8gI= 40EbKGw4WFsrOq6PfCJrvWv-vAIFs7kWmCXydtZOhM-WDQg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4xt_EiXqjGMNeX0mjrHnOcl4CZ6nN2zNWWTCkco5B8gI= 40EbKGw4WFsrOq6PfCJrvWv-vAIFs7kWmCXydtZOQU1WjrE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4xt_EiXqjGMNeX0mjrHnOcl4CZ6nN2zNWWTCkco5B8gI= 40EbKGw4WFsrOq6PfCJrvWv-vAIFs7kWmCXydtZOgYp0rQs$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 130748
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE=20 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHWEST GULF COAST, & SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC=20
STATES...

...Much of the Eastern half of the country...=20
A slow-moving deep layer cyclone moves east across portions of the
Midwest from near the MO/KS/AR/OK broad border junction into IL.=20
Moisture and effective bulk shear will be plentiful while ML CAPE=20
will be sufficient for organized convection in a number of areas --
in the warm advection pattern just ahead of the low across=20
portions of MO/IL and within its inflow bands/fronts across=20
AR/Delta Region of MS and Tidewater VA/portions of the Potomac. All
three areas have Slight Risks, with the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic=20
portions new for this update. The risk percentage for AR is in=20
decline as the heavy rain signal appears better elsewhere, but=20
lowish flash flood guidance and the Ozarks should prove sufficient=20
for widely scattered to scattered flash flood concerns. Flash flood
guidance is many ares appears compromised by recent rainfall=20
(during the past week). Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local=20
totals to 5" are most probable within the Slight Risk areas.


...Northwest Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to retrograde from southwest
LA across sensitive areas of Southeast TX during the morning hours
within an area of low-level convergence and retreating/eroding=20
instability. This is another area where hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
with local totals to 5" are more probable due to sufficient=20
effective bulk shear, moisture, and instability, which would be=20
most problematic where it rained heavily on Thursday and within=20
urban areas.


...Northern WI/Michigan U.P....
Area of low pressure moving eastward through MN helps drive a=20
risk for heavy rainfall within narrow bands from MN across=20
northern WI Friday morning. Instability appears sufficient in spots
(500+ J/kg of MU CAPE) for pockets of organized convection capable
of heavy rainfall, but isentropic lift/low- to mid-level=20
frontogenesis is expected to aid heavy rainfall production as well.
Hourly amounts to 2" with local amounts to 4" are possible where=20
cells train.


...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...
The Marginal Risk across Montana maintained along the western=20
interface of the deeper moisture and instability over much of the=20
Plains on the leading edge of a quasi-stationary upper level trough.

Roth



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR
VIRGINIA & ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Southern Plains, Southeast, Tennessee & Ohio Valleys, & the
Mid-Atlantic States...=20
A deep layer cyclone drops southeast from IL into KY with time. The
system remains quite moist with sufficient effective bulk shear
along and near its associated fronts with greater instability,
particularly across portions of the Plains as mid-level capping is
increasing due to a strengthening 500 hPa ridge across NM, though
the cap is breakable. Because of this greater instability, a few=20
pieces of guidance are quite wet somewhere in the neighborhood of=20
OK and KS, where the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, and especially the 00z=20
Canadian are quite wet, showing maxima of 5-13". Hourly rain=20
amounts to 2.5" appear likely in this environment. Cell training=20
due to storms moving south-southeast down the stationary=20
instability gradient would be problematic if it occurs within a=20
long enough band over several hours. An upgrade to a Slight Risk=20
was made here at the expense of AR due to the significant/increased
potential to its west. Should guidance converge on wet solutions,=20
further upgrades could occur.

Along the system's stationary front to the east, another day of
high moisture, sufficient instability and effective bulk shear team
up for heavy rainfall in and near Virginia. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local amounts to 5" are most probable within the new=20
Slight Risk area. Urban areas and places with increasing soil=20
saturation due to the previous day of heavy rainfall would be most=20
at risk for issues.


...In and near the Iowa/Minnesota border...
A warm advection pattern returns to the region, bringing
precipitable water values up to 1.75" and sufficient effective bulk
shear and instability for organized convection. After rainfall on
Thursday and Friday, soils should be increasingly saturated/
compromised at this point. However, the guidance spread on the
heavy rain signal is quite large...best across southeast SD and
southern MN. While increasing warmth at 700 hPa is seen across the
central High Plains, any mid-level capping should be minimal.
However, the broad reservoir of instability to the southwest could keep southward shifts in the guidance minimal between now and when the=20
convection materializes on Saturday. Played it cautious and=20
introduced a Marginal Risk for the heavy rain potential on=20
Saturday. Hourly amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible,
given the available ingredients. This could be from a combination=20
of cell training and occasional mesocyclone formation. The degree=20
of the flash flood threat would depend on whether or not urban=20
centers received this heavy rainfall or if/where soils were=20
sufficiently compromised over previous days within impacted areas.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS IN AND NEAR THE
VIRGINIAS...

...Southern Mid-Atlantic States...
Another round of organized convection within a very moist
environment with sufficient effective bulk shear and instability is
expected near a stationary boundary. Like previous days, hourly=20
rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible. A new=20
Slight Risk area was added to account for both the heavy rain=20
potential in urban centers and what should be increasingly=20
saturated soils due to expected rainfall on Friday and Saturday.


...Northern Plains into the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley...
A "ring of fire" type of setup appears to be in the offing for=20
this region as ridging continues to build across NM, upper
troughing remains stagnant across the Pacific Northwest, and the
deep layer cyclone moves from KY towards WV. Temperatures at 700=20
hPa continue to warm somewhat across portions of the Rockies and=20
the central High Plains, strengthening the mid-level capping=20
inversion and increasing the instability available/forward=20
propagation odds for any organized convective complex that forms=20
around the ridge's periphery. The region with the highest heavy=20
rain potential appears to be from the southern Plains/Midwest=20
southeastward near a possible Mesoscale Convective System. There is
significant model spread on location, keeping the risk level as=20
Marginal at this time. However, higher end potential exists for any
convection that can train along the instability gradient from
roughly eastern KS through AR, as seen in different ways on the=20
00z NAM, 00z UKMET, and 00z Canadian Regional solutions which show=20
local maxima in the 4-7" range. Should the guidance converge, an=20
increased threat level could be prudent.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5oTA0Mv-F2hbhjDRLIomkZ1H52goqQAgtqskbECkaePa= nnkvLvDWgJz9L56GilavYhb1aeiTmTkgU_gAJ9fWCJwWMgs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5oTA0Mv-F2hbhjDRLIomkZ1H52goqQAgtqskbECkaePa= nnkvLvDWgJz9L56GilavYhb1aeiTmTkgU_gAJ9fWHG7tMGY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5oTA0Mv-F2hbhjDRLIomkZ1H52goqQAgtqskbECkaePa= nnkvLvDWgJz9L56GilavYhb1aeiTmTkgU_gAJ9fWntIcd7s$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 131150
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE=20 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHWEST GULF COAST, & SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC=20
STATES...

...12Z Outlook Update...
An expansion of the Slight Risk area was made over south-central=20
Louisiana. Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a slow-moving=20
cluster of thunderstorms with very heavy rain rates that may=20
persist across that area for several hours. Additional areas of 3-5
inch rainfall totals (with locally higher amounts) are possible.=20
Refer to MPD 427 for additional information.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

...Much of the Eastern half of the country...=20
A slow-moving deep layer cyclone moves east across portions of the
Midwest from near the MO/KS/AR/OK broad border junction into IL.=20
Moisture and effective bulk shear will be plentiful while ML CAPE=20
will be sufficient for organized convection in a number of areas --
in the warm advection pattern just ahead of the low across=20
portions of MO/IL and within its inflow bands/fronts across=20
AR/Delta Region of MS and Tidewater VA/portions of the Potomac. All
three areas have Slight Risks, with the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic=20
portions new for this update. The risk percentage for AR is in=20
decline as the heavy rain signal appears better elsewhere, but=20
lowish flash flood guidance and the Ozarks should prove sufficient=20
for widely scattered to scattered flash flood concerns. Flash flood
guidance is many ares appears compromised by recent rainfall=20
(during the past week). Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local=20
totals to 5" are most probable within the Slight Risk areas.


...Northwest Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to retrograde from southwest
LA across sensitive areas of Southeast TX during the morning hours
within an area of low-level convergence and retreating/eroding=20
instability. This is another area where hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
with local totals to 5" are more probable due to sufficient=20
effective bulk shear, moisture, and instability, which would be=20
most problematic where it rained heavily on Thursday and within=20
urban areas.


...Northern WI/Michigan U.P....
Area of low pressure moving eastward through MN helps drive a=20
risk for heavy rainfall within narrow bands from MN across=20
northern WI Friday morning. Instability appears sufficient in spots
(500+ J/kg of MU CAPE) for pockets of organized convection capable
of heavy rainfall, but isentropic lift/low- to mid-level=20
frontogenesis is expected to aid heavy rainfall production as well.
Hourly amounts to 2" with local amounts to 4" are possible where=20
cells train.


...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...
The Marginal Risk across Montana maintained along the western=20
interface of the deeper moisture and instability over much of the=20
Plains on the leading edge of a quasi-stationary upper level trough.

Roth



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR
VIRGINIA & ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Southern Plains, Southeast, Tennessee & Ohio Valleys, & the
Mid-Atlantic States...=20
A deep layer cyclone drops southeast from IL into KY with time. The
system remains quite moist with sufficient effective bulk shear
along and near its associated fronts with greater instability,
particularly across portions of the Plains as mid-level capping is
increasing due to a strengthening 500 hPa ridge across NM, though
the cap is breakable. Because of this greater instability, a few=20
pieces of guidance are quite wet somewhere in the neighborhood of=20
OK and KS, where the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, and especially the 00z=20
Canadian are quite wet, showing maxima of 5-13". Hourly rain=20
amounts to 2.5" appear likely in this environment. Cell training=20
due to storms moving south-southeast down the stationary=20
instability gradient would be problematic if it occurs within a=20
long enough band over several hours. An upgrade to a Slight Risk=20
was made here at the expense of AR due to the significant/increased
potential to its west. Should guidance converge on wet solutions,=20
further upgrades could occur.

Along the system's stationary front to the east, another day of
high moisture, sufficient instability and effective bulk shear team
up for heavy rainfall in and near Virginia. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local amounts to 5" are most probable within the new=20
Slight Risk area. Urban areas and places with increasing soil=20
saturation due to the previous day of heavy rainfall would be most=20
at risk for issues.


...In and near the Iowa/Minnesota border...
A warm advection pattern returns to the region, bringing
precipitable water values up to 1.75" and sufficient effective bulk
shear and instability for organized convection. After rainfall on
Thursday and Friday, soils should be increasingly saturated/
compromised at this point. However, the guidance spread on the
heavy rain signal is quite large...best across southeast SD and
southern MN. While increasing warmth at 700 hPa is seen across the
central High Plains, any mid-level capping should be minimal.
However, the broad reservoir of instability to the southwest could keep southward shifts in the guidance minimal between now and when the=20
convection materializes on Saturday. Played it cautious and=20
introduced a Marginal Risk for the heavy rain potential on=20
Saturday. Hourly amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible,
given the available ingredients. This could be from a combination=20
of cell training and occasional mesocyclone formation. The degree=20
of the flash flood threat would depend on whether or not urban=20
centers received this heavy rainfall or if/where soils were=20
sufficiently compromised over previous days within impacted areas.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS IN AND NEAR THE
VIRGINIAS...

...Southern Mid-Atlantic States...
Another round of organized convection within a very moist
environment with sufficient effective bulk shear and instability is
expected near a stationary boundary. Like previous days, hourly=20
rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible. A new=20
Slight Risk area was added to account for both the heavy rain=20
potential in urban centers and what should be increasingly=20
saturated soils due to expected rainfall on Friday and Saturday.


...Northern Plains into the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley...
A "ring of fire" type of setup appears to be in the offing for=20
this region as ridging continues to build across NM, upper
troughing remains stagnant across the Pacific Northwest, and the
deep layer cyclone moves from KY towards WV. Temperatures at 700=20
hPa continue to warm somewhat across portions of the Rockies and=20
the central High Plains, strengthening the mid-level capping=20
inversion and increasing the instability available/forward=20
propagation odds for any organized convective complex that forms=20
around the ridge's periphery. The region with the highest heavy=20
rain potential appears to be from the southern Plains/Midwest=20
southeastward near a possible Mesoscale Convective System. There is
significant model spread on location, keeping the risk level as=20
Marginal at this time. However, higher end potential exists for any
convection that can train along the instability gradient from
roughly eastern KS through AR, as seen in different ways on the=20
00z NAM, 00z UKMET, and 00z Canadian Regional solutions which show=20
local maxima in the 4-7" range. Should the guidance converge, an=20
increased threat level could be prudent.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-YywShRNxmgmiYXBfDipxgyu6oQAqnmxmtT4Or5YA-Bm= DGvzUruJsDt3KpehafV5p6_S4If0t5_wyknl5nrqd9lyYR0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-YywShRNxmgmiYXBfDipxgyu6oQAqnmxmtT4Or5YA-Bm= DGvzUruJsDt3KpehafV5p6_S4If0t5_wyknl5nrqJUcBwgQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-YywShRNxmgmiYXBfDipxgyu6oQAqnmxmtT4Or5YA-Bm= DGvzUruJsDt3KpehafV5p6_S4If0t5_wyknl5nrqgk_aVk4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 131559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHWEST GULF COAST, & SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...


...Mid-Atlantic...
Stalled frontal boundary stretching across the Delmarva Peninsula
towards the Upper Ohio Valley will combine with increasing=20
atmospheric moisture content (1.5-2.0" PWs by this evening) to=20
create efficient rainfall rates within thunderstorms. The southerly
mid-level flow will be aided by an upper low currently analyzed=20
over southern MO, but with troughing stretching from the Midwest to
the western Gulf. Convection is most likely to trigger first=20
across the Carolinas and the elevated terrain of the Blue Ridge up=20
through the central Appalachians. Mean column wind speeds of 20 kts
out of the west should promote some propagation of storms,=20
especially once a cold pool is established, but complex terrain and
areas right along the frontal boundary could exhibit some training
potential along with rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. The inherited=20
Slight Risk was maintained and expanded a bit westward to encompass
more of the sensitive Blue Ridge mountains of central/northern VA.
12z HREF guidance depicts 30-50% chances for 3" totals within 6=20
hours this evening across central VA. This along with the available
moisture content and nearby frontal boundary support the potential
for scattered instances of flash flooding and the potential for=20
localized considerable impacts in the sensitive terrain near the=20
Blue Ridge as well as urban locations between southern MD and=20
northeast NC. However, some guidance (including the 12z HRRR and=20 experimental 06z RRFS) are mostly void of excessive rainfall=20
coverage, which does prompt some uncertainty during the D1 period.


...Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley...
The inherited Slight risks were consolidated to focus on the
eastern and southern flanks of the mid-level low churning over the
region. Isolated flash flooding is still possible across parts of
central MO/IL underneath and near the low center, but coverage of
heavy rain does not seem widespread enough to warrant a Slight
Risk. Moisture and effective bulk shear will be plentiful across
much of the Mid-Missippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley while ML=20
CAPE will be sufficient for organized convection in a number of=20
areas. PW values of 1.75-2.0" will near the 90th climatological
percentile per the 00z ECENS. The risk percentage for AR is in=20
decline as the heavy rain signal appears better elsewhere, but=20
lowish flash flood guidance and the Ozarks should prove sufficient=20
for widely scattered to scattered flash flood concerns, especially
given the potential for storms to re-ignite late tonight under the
influence of an increasing low-level jet. Flash flood guidance is=20
many ares appears compromised by recent rainfall (during the past=20
week). Overall, the expectation is for isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding and the greatest concern located within
urban and poor drainage locations.


...Northwest Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to retrograde from southwest
LA across sensitive areas of Southeast TX this morning within an=20
area of low- level convergence and retreating/eroding instability.
This occurring after extreme rainfall amounts (7"+) impacted
south-central LA early this morning. Additional hourly rain=20
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 5" are probable along the
northwest Gulf Coast due to sufficient effective bulk shear,=20
moisture, and instability, which would be most problematic where it
rained heavily on Thursday and within urban areas. 12z HREF
probabilities for greater than 5" in 6 hrs are 15-20% and scattered
throughout the region.


...Texas Panhandle and Caprock Region...
Dryline convection this evening is expected along much of the High
Plains, but also as far south as the Texas Panhandle and western
Texas where 1-1.25" PWs remain. 3-hr FFGs in the region are below=20
3" and have been somewhat wet as of the last month (100-200% of=20
normal for some locations). A Marginal Risk was added given the=20
potential for numerous thunderstorms, while progressing eastward=20
steadily, could merge and lead to brief periods of training.=20

...Northern WI/Michigan U.P....
Area of low pressure moving eastward through MN helps drive a
risk for heavy rainfall within narrow bands from MN across
northern WI Friday morning. Instability appears sufficient in spots
(500+ J/kg of MU CAPE) for pockets of organized convection capable
of heavy rainfall, but isentropic lift/low- to mid-level
frontogenesis is expected to aid heavy rainfall production as well.
Hourly amounts to 1.5" with local amounts to 3" are possible where
cells train. The inherited Marginal Risk was shrunk based on radar
and latest CAM trends.


...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...
The Marginal Risk across Montana maintained along the western
interface of the deeper moisture and instability over much of the
Plains on the leading edge of a quasi-stationary upper level trough.

Snell/Roth



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR
VIRGINIA & ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Southern Plains, Southeast, Tennessee & Ohio Valleys, & the
Mid-Atlantic States...
A deep layer cyclone drops southeast from IL into KY with time. The
system remains quite moist with sufficient effective bulk shear
along and near its associated fronts with greater instability,
particularly across portions of the Plains as mid-level capping is
increasing due to a strengthening 500 hPa ridge across NM, though
the cap is breakable. Because of this greater instability, a few
pieces of guidance are quite wet somewhere in the neighborhood of
OK and KS, where the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, and especially the 00z
Canadian are quite wet, showing maxima of 5-13". Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" appear likely in this environment. Cell training
due to storms moving south-southeast down the stationary
instability gradient would be problematic if it occurs within a
long enough band over several hours. An upgrade to a Slight Risk
was made here at the expense of AR due to the significant/increased
potential to its west. Should guidance converge on wet solutions,
further upgrades could occur.

Along the system's stationary front to the east, another day of
high moisture, sufficient instability and effective bulk shear team
up for heavy rainfall in and near Virginia. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local amounts to 5" are most probable within the new
Slight Risk area. Urban areas and places with increasing soil
saturation due to the previous day of heavy rainfall would be most
at risk for issues.


...In and near the Iowa/Minnesota border...
A warm advection pattern returns to the region, bringing
precipitable water values up to 1.75" and sufficient effective bulk
shear and instability for organized convection. After rainfall on
Thursday and Friday, soils should be increasingly saturated/
compromised at this point. However, the guidance spread on the
heavy rain signal is quite large...best across southeast SD and
southern MN. While increasing warmth at 700 hPa is seen across the
central High Plains, any mid-level capping should be minimal.
However, the broad reservoir of instability to the southwest could keep southward shifts in the guidance minimal between now and when the
convection materializes on Saturday. Played it cautious and
introduced a Marginal Risk for the heavy rain potential on
Saturday. Hourly amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible,
given the available ingredients. This could be from a combination
of cell training and occasional mesocyclone formation. The degree
of the flash flood threat would depend on whether or not urban
centers received this heavy rainfall or if/where soils were
sufficiently compromised over previous days within impacted areas.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS IN AND NEAR THE
VIRGINIAS...

...Southern Mid-Atlantic States...
Another round of organized convection within a very moist
environment with sufficient effective bulk shear and instability is
expected near a stationary boundary. Like previous days, hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible. A new
Slight Risk area was added to account for both the heavy rain
potential in urban centers and what should be increasingly
saturated soils due to expected rainfall on Friday and Saturday.


...Northern Plains into the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley...
A "ring of fire" type of setup appears to be in the offing for
this region as ridging continues to build across NM, upper
troughing remains stagnant across the Pacific Northwest, and the
deep layer cyclone moves from KY towards WV. Temperatures at 700
hPa continue to warm somewhat across portions of the Rockies and
the central High Plains, strengthening the mid-level capping
inversion and increasing the instability available/forward
propagation odds for any organized convective complex that forms
around the ridge's periphery. The region with the highest heavy
rain potential appears to be from the southern Plains/Midwest
southeastward near a possible Mesoscale Convective System. There is
significant model spread on location, keeping the risk level as
Marginal at this time. However, higher end potential exists for any
convection that can train along the instability gradient from
roughly eastern KS through AR, as seen in different ways on the
00z NAM, 00z UKMET, and 00z Canadian Regional solutions which show
local maxima in the 4-7" range. Should the guidance converge, an
increased threat level could be prudent.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7aw02bAUYpnNEauvwAYJse6SK0EC-OnX5KD0cJ0r8Br8= HM4DdQMFZdSz9TQlVYe7Dmm6b0L7kPsX8N1MyPOmrV6GNGI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7aw02bAUYpnNEauvwAYJse6SK0EC-OnX5KD0cJ0r8Br8= HM4DdQMFZdSz9TQlVYe7Dmm6b0L7kPsX8N1MyPOmPUXBnaU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7aw02bAUYpnNEauvwAYJse6SK0EC-OnX5KD0cJ0r8Br8= HM4DdQMFZdSz9TQlVYe7Dmm6b0L7kPsX8N1MyPOmAzvk62Q$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 131948
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHWEST GULF COAST, & SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...


...Mid-Atlantic...
Stalled frontal boundary stretching across the Delmarva Peninsula
towards the Upper Ohio Valley will combine with increasing
atmospheric moisture content (1.5-2.0" PWs by this evening) to
create efficient rainfall rates within thunderstorms. The southerly
mid-level flow will be aided by an upper low currently analyzed
over southern MO, but with troughing stretching from the Midwest to
the western Gulf. Convection is most likely to trigger first
across the Carolinas and the elevated terrain of the Blue Ridge up
through the central Appalachians. Mean column wind speeds of 20 kts
out of the west should promote some propagation of storms,
especially once a cold pool is established, but complex terrain and
areas right along the frontal boundary could exhibit some training
potential along with rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. The inherited
Slight Risk was maintained and expanded a bit westward to encompass
more of the sensitive Blue Ridge mountains of central/northern VA.
12z HREF guidance depicts 30-50% chances for 3" totals within 6
hours this evening across central VA. This along with the available
moisture content and nearby frontal boundary support the potential
for scattered instances of flash flooding and the potential for
localized considerable impacts in the sensitive terrain near the
Blue Ridge as well as urban locations between southern MD and
northeast NC. However, some guidance (including the 12z HRRR and
experimental 06z RRFS) are mostly void of excessive rainfall
coverage, which does prompt some uncertainty during the D1 period.


...Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley...
The inherited Slight risks were consolidated to focus on the
eastern and southern flanks of the mid-level low churning over the
region. Isolated flash flooding is still possible across parts of
central MO/IL underneath and near the low center, but coverage of
heavy rain does not seem widespread enough to warrant a Slight
Risk. Moisture and effective bulk shear will be plentiful across
much of the Mid-Missippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley while ML
CAPE will be sufficient for organized convection in a number of
areas. PW values of 1.75-2.0" will near the 90th climatological
percentile per the 00z ECENS. The risk percentage for AR is in
decline as the heavy rain signal appears better elsewhere, but
lowish flash flood guidance and the Ozarks should prove sufficient
for widely scattered to scattered flash flood concerns, especially
given the potential for storms to re-ignite late tonight under the
influence of an increasing low-level jet. Flash flood guidance is
many ares appears compromised by recent rainfall (during the past
week). Overall, the expectation is for isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding and the greatest concern located within
urban and poor drainage locations.


...Northwest Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to retrograde from southwest
LA across sensitive areas of Southeast TX this morning within an
area of low- level convergence and retreating/eroding instability.
This occurring after extreme rainfall amounts (7"+) impacted
south-central LA early this morning. Additional hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 5" are probable along the
northwest Gulf Coast due to sufficient effective bulk shear,
moisture, and instability, which would be most problematic where it
rained heavily on Thursday and within urban areas. 12z HREF
probabilities for greater than 5" in 6 hrs are 15-20% and scattered
throughout the region.


...Texas Panhandle and Caprock Region...
Dryline convection this evening is expected along much of the High
Plains, but also as far south as the Texas Panhandle and western
Texas where 1-1.25" PWs remain. 3-hr FFGs in the region are below
3" and have been somewhat wet as of the last month (100-200% of
normal for some locations). A Marginal Risk was added given the
potential for numerous thunderstorms, while progressing eastward
steadily, could merge and lead to brief periods of training.

...Northern WI/Michigan U.P....
Area of low pressure moving eastward through MN helps drive a
risk for heavy rainfall within narrow bands from MN across
northern WI Friday morning. Instability appears sufficient in spots
(500+ J/kg of MU CAPE) for pockets of organized convection capable
of heavy rainfall, but isentropic lift/low- to mid-level
frontogenesis is expected to aid heavy rainfall production as well.
Hourly amounts to 1.5" with local amounts to 3" are possible where
cells train. The inherited Marginal Risk was shrunk based on radar
and latest CAM trends.


...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...
The Marginal Risk across Montana maintained along the western
interface of the deeper moisture and instability over much of the
Plains on the leading edge of a quasi-stationary upper level trough.

Snell/Roth



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN
VIRGINIA & ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...


...Mid-Atlantic...
Along a stationary front, another day of high moisture, sufficient
instability and effective bulk shear team up for heavy rainfall in
Virginia and specifically focus near southeast Virginia as the
front slides south by the evening hours. Widespread light to
locally moderate rainfall across the northern Mid-Atlantic should
tighten the thermal gradient in the region and potentially provide
a better focus for storms compared to Day 1. PWs are forecast to=20
remain near 2" and around the 90th climatological percentile. CAMs=20
depict widespread amounts of 2-4" possible with localized totals=20
potentially exceeding 5" (12z HREF probs for greater than 5" are=20
20-40%), with the greatest potential in southeast Virginia. Urban=20
areas and places with increasing soil saturation due to the=20
previous day of heavy rainfall would be most at risk for issues.

...Southern Plains, Southeast, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys...
A deep layer cyclone drops southeast from IL into KY with time.=20
The system remains quite moist with sufficient effective bulk shear
along and near its associated fronts with greater instability,=20
particularly across portions of the Plains as mid-level capping is=20 increasing due to a strengthening 500 hPa ridge across NM, though=20
the cap is breakable especially near remnant MCVs from overnight
convection ejecting from the High Plains D1. Because of this=20
greater instability, a few pieces of guidance are quite wet=20
somewhere in the neighborhood of OK and KS, especially the 12z NAM,
00z CMC, and several CAMs showing maxima of 5-13". Hourly rain=20
amounts to 2.5" appear likely in this environment. Cell training=20
due to storms moving south- southeast down the stationary=20
instability gradient would be problematic if it occurs within a=20
long enough band over several hours. The inherited Slight Risk was
maintained with only minor adjustments. Should guidance converge=20
on wet solutions, further upgrades could occur.

Closer to the deep layer cyclone churning over the Ohio Valley,
slow moving convection and brief organized training is possible.
A more cellular convective mode is likely near the cyclone over the
Ohio Valley, where isolated flash flooding could occur. Along the
southern flanking inflow band, mean wind becomes more westerly and
parallel to developing convection across central and northern
AL/MS. This is an area that could warrant an upgrade to a Slight
Risk if more confidence arises in better convective organization=20
conducive for scattered flash flooding. At the moment, more=20
isolated and localized flooding is more probable.


...In and near the Iowa/Minnesota border...
A warm advection pattern returns to the region, bringing
precipitable water values up to 1.75" and sufficient effective bulk
shear and instability for organized convection. After rainfall on
Thursday and Friday, soils should be increasingly saturated/
compromised at this point. However, the guidance spread on the
heavy rain signal is quite large...best across southeast SD and
southern MN. While increasing warmth at 700 hPa is seen across the
central High Plains, any mid-level capping should be minimal.
However, the broad reservoir of instability to the southwest could keep southward shifts in the guidance minimal between now and when the
convection materializes on Saturday. Hourly amounts to 2" and=20
local totals to 4" are possible, given the available ingredients
and potential lingering MCV to move eastward into the region from
D1. This could be from a combination of cell training and=20
occasional mesocyclone formation. The degree of the flash flood=20
threat would depend on whether or not urban centers received this=20
heavy rainfall or if/where soils were sufficiently compromised over
previous days within impacted areas.

Snell/Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR MUCH OF VIRGINIA
AND INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...Southern Mid-Atlantic States and Central Appalachians...
Another round of organized convection within a very moist
environment with sufficient effective bulk shear and instability is
expected near a stationary boundary. Like previous days, hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible.
However, by Sunday the influence of a strung-out upper low will
near the region and provide better forcing for greater coverage in
moderate to heavy rainfall. The previous Slight Risk was expanded=20
westward in order to encompass more of WV and western VA to account
for the heavy rain potential in sensitive terrain of the central=20 Appalachians on the western slopes given predominantly west-=20
southwesterly flow. Once again, flooding impacts will be=20
exacerbated in urban centers and what should be increasingly=20
saturated soils due to expected rainfall on Friday and Saturday.=20
Outside the CAM range for this outlook, but most global guidance=20
suggests at least 2-3" totals are likely to be common within the=20
Slight Risk. Given the potential soil sensitivity in this region=20
and the expected coverage of convection by Day 3, further upgrades=20
may be necessary.


...Northern Plains into the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley...
A "ring of fire" type of setup appears to be in the offing for
this region as ridging continues to build across NM, upper
troughing remains stagnant across the Pacific Northwest, and the
deep layer cyclone moves from KY towards WV. Temperatures at 700
hPa continue to warm somewhat across portions of the Rockies and
the central High Plains, strengthening the mid-level capping
inversion and increasing the instability available/forward
propagation odds for any organized convective complex that forms
around the ridge's periphery. The region with the highest heavy
rain potential appears to be from the southern Plains/Midwest
southeastward near a possible Mesoscale Convective System. There is
significant model spread on location, keeping the risk level as
Marginal at this time. However, higher end potential exists for any
convection that can train along the instability gradient from
roughly eastern KS through AR, as seen in different ways on the
global solutions and experimental RRFS which show local maxima in=20
the 4-7" range. Should the guidance converge, an increased threat=20
level could be prudent.

Snell/Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9lwMizRr4l8u6doi5WqpSk-7z6b2y7pZyVX5DuHZVu8-= _l1cooY_hrh-qjNUEMsKkhfm23STyHUODy9DQPO3z1KBAN0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9lwMizRr4l8u6doi5WqpSk-7z6b2y7pZyVX5DuHZVu8-= _l1cooY_hrh-qjNUEMsKkhfm23STyHUODy9DQPO3ncCZFSI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9lwMizRr4l8u6doi5WqpSk-7z6b2y7pZyVX5DuHZVu8-= _l1cooY_hrh-qjNUEMsKkhfm23STyHUODy9DQPO3zyabmJ0$=20

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FOUS30 KWBC 132314
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, CENTRAL=20
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...

...Mid-Atlantic...
2300 UTC Update -- Pulled the Slight and Marginal Risk areas a
little farther west (from the Atlantic Coast) based on the latest
observational trends along with recent HRRR/RRFS runs and the 18Z
HREF exceedance probabilities.=20

Hurley

Previous Discussion...Stalled frontal boundary stretching across=20
the Delmarva Peninsula towards the Upper Ohio Valley will combine=20
with increasing atmospheric moisture content (1.5-2.0" PWs by this=20
evening) to create efficient rainfall rates within thunderstorms.=20
The southerly mid-level flow will be aided by an upper low=20
currently analyzed over southern MO, but with troughing stretching=20
from the Midwest to the western Gulf. Convection is most likely to=20
trigger first across the Carolinas and the elevated terrain of the=20
Blue Ridge up through the central Appalachians. Mean column wind=20
speeds of 20 kts out of the west should promote some propagation of
storms, especially once a cold pool is established, but complex=20
terrain and areas right along the frontal boundary could exhibit=20
some training potential along with rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. The=20
inherited Slight Risk was maintained and expanded a bit westward to
encompass more of the sensitive Blue Ridge mountains of=20
central/northern VA. 12z HREF guidance depicts 30-50% chances for=20
3" totals within 6 hours this evening across central VA. This along
with the available moisture content and nearby frontal boundary=20
support the potential for scattered instances of flash flooding and
the potential for localized considerable impacts in the sensitive=20
terrain near the Blue Ridge as well as urban locations between=20
southern MD and northeast NC. However, some guidance (including the
12z HRRR and experimental 06z RRFS) are mostly void of excessive=20
rainfall coverage, which does prompt some uncertainty during the D1
period.


...Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley...
2300 UTC Update -- Based on the latest observational and guidance
trends, have nudged the Slight Risk area a bit farther east to
include more of the TN and OH Valleys.=20

Hurley

Previous discussion...Isolated flash flooding is still possible=20
across parts of central MO/IL underneath and near the low center,=20
but coverage of heavy rain does not seem widespread enough to=20
warrant a Slight Risk. Moisture and effective bulk shear will be=20
plentiful across much of the Mid-Missippi Valley and lower Ohio=20
Valley while ML CAPE will be sufficient for organized convection in
a number of areas. PW values of 1.75-2.0" will near the 90th=20
climatological percentile per the 00z ECENS. The risk percentage=20
for AR is in decline as the heavy rain signal appears better=20
elsewhere, but lowish flash flood guidance and the Ozarks should=20
prove sufficient for widely scattered to scattered flash flood=20
concerns, especially given the potential for storms to re-ignite=20
late tonight under the influence of an increasing low-level jet.=20
Flash flood guidance is many ares appears compromised by recent=20
rainfall (during the past week). Overall, the expectation is for=20
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding and the greatest=20
concern located within urban and poor drainage locations.


...Northwest Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to retrograde from southwest
LA across sensitive areas of Southeast TX this morning within an
area of low- level convergence and retreating/eroding instability.
This occurring after extreme rainfall amounts (7"+) impacted
south-central LA early this morning. Additional hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 5" are probable along the
northwest Gulf Coast due to sufficient effective bulk shear,
moisture, and instability, which would be most problematic where it
rained heavily on Thursday and within urban areas. 12z HREF
probabilities for greater than 5" in 6 hrs are 15-20% and scattered
throughout the region.


...Texas Panhandle and Caprock Region...
Dryline convection this evening is expected along much of the High
Plains, but also as far south as the Texas Panhandle and western
Texas where 1-1.25" PWs remain. 3-hr FFGs in the region are below
3" and have been somewhat wet as of the last month (100-200% of
normal for some locations). A Marginal Risk was added given the
potential for numerous thunderstorms, while progressing eastward
steadily, could merge and lead to brief periods of training.

...Northern WI/Michigan U.P....
Area of low pressure moving eastward through MN helps drive a
risk for heavy rainfall within narrow bands from MN across
northern WI Friday morning. Instability appears sufficient in spots
(500+ J/kg of MU CAPE) for pockets of organized convection capable
of heavy rainfall, but isentropic lift/low- to mid-level
frontogenesis is expected to aid heavy rainfall production as well.
Hourly amounts to 1.5" with local amounts to 3" are possible where
cells train. The inherited Marginal Risk was shrunk based on radar
and latest CAM trends.


...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...
The Marginal Risk across Montana maintained along the western
interface of the deeper moisture and instability over much of the
Plains on the leading edge of a quasi-stationary upper level trough.

Snell/Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN
VIRGINIA & ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...


...Mid-Atlantic...
Along a stationary front, another day of high moisture, sufficient
instability and effective bulk shear team up for heavy rainfall in
Virginia and specifically focus near southeast Virginia as the
front slides south by the evening hours. Widespread light to
locally moderate rainfall across the northern Mid-Atlantic should
tighten the thermal gradient in the region and potentially provide
a better focus for storms compared to Day 1. PWs are forecast to
remain near 2" and around the 90th climatological percentile. CAMs
depict widespread amounts of 2-4" possible with localized totals
potentially exceeding 5" (12z HREF probs for greater than 5" are
20-40%), with the greatest potential in southeast Virginia. Urban
areas and places with increasing soil saturation due to the
previous day of heavy rainfall would be most at risk for issues.

...Southern Plains, Southeast, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys...
A deep layer cyclone drops southeast from IL into KY with time.
The system remains quite moist with sufficient effective bulk shear
along and near its associated fronts with greater instability,
particularly across portions of the Plains as mid-level capping is
increasing due to a strengthening 500 hPa ridge across NM, though
the cap is breakable especially near remnant MCVs from overnight
convection ejecting from the High Plains D1. Because of this
greater instability, a few pieces of guidance are quite wet
somewhere in the neighborhood of OK and KS, especially the 12z NAM,
00z CMC, and several CAMs showing maxima of 5-13". Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" appear likely in this environment. Cell training
due to storms moving south- southeast down the stationary
instability gradient would be problematic if it occurs within a
long enough band over several hours. The inherited Slight Risk was
maintained with only minor adjustments. Should guidance converge
on wet solutions, further upgrades could occur.

Closer to the deep layer cyclone churning over the Ohio Valley,
slow moving convection and brief organized training is possible.
A more cellular convective mode is likely near the cyclone over the
Ohio Valley, where isolated flash flooding could occur. Along the
southern flanking inflow band, mean wind becomes more westerly and
parallel to developing convection across central and northern
AL/MS. This is an area that could warrant an upgrade to a Slight
Risk if more confidence arises in better convective organization
conducive for scattered flash flooding. At the moment, more
isolated and localized flooding is more probable.


...In and near the Iowa/Minnesota border...
A warm advection pattern returns to the region, bringing
precipitable water values up to 1.75" and sufficient effective bulk
shear and instability for organized convection. After rainfall on
Thursday and Friday, soils should be increasingly saturated/
compromised at this point. However, the guidance spread on the
heavy rain signal is quite large...best across southeast SD and
southern MN. While increasing warmth at 700 hPa is seen across the
central High Plains, any mid-level capping should be minimal.
However, the broad reservoir of instability to the southwest could keep southward shifts in the guidance minimal between now and when the
convection materializes on Saturday. Hourly amounts to 2" and
local totals to 4" are possible, given the available ingredients
and potential lingering MCV to move eastward into the region from
D1. This could be from a combination of cell training and
occasional mesocyclone formation. The degree of the flash flood
threat would depend on whether or not urban centers received this
heavy rainfall or if/where soils were sufficiently compromised over
previous days within impacted areas.

Snell/Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR MUCH OF VIRGINIA
AND INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...Southern Mid-Atlantic States and Central Appalachians...
Another round of organized convection within a very moist
environment with sufficient effective bulk shear and instability is
expected near a stationary boundary. Like previous days, hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible.
However, by Sunday the influence of a strung-out upper low will
near the region and provide better forcing for greater coverage in
moderate to heavy rainfall. The previous Slight Risk was expanded
westward in order to encompass more of WV and western VA to account
for the heavy rain potential in sensitive terrain of the central
Appalachians on the western slopes given predominantly west-
southwesterly flow. Once again, flooding impacts will be
exacerbated in urban centers and what should be increasingly
saturated soils due to expected rainfall on Friday and Saturday.
Outside the CAM range for this outlook, but most global guidance
suggests at least 2-3" totals are likely to be common within the
Slight Risk. Given the potential soil sensitivity in this region
and the expected coverage of convection by Day 3, further upgrades
may be necessary.


...Northern Plains into the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley...
A "ring of fire" type of setup appears to be in the offing for
this region as ridging continues to build across NM, upper
troughing remains stagnant across the Pacific Northwest, and the
deep layer cyclone moves from KY towards WV. Temperatures at 700
hPa continue to warm somewhat across portions of the Rockies and
the central High Plains, strengthening the mid-level capping
inversion and increasing the instability available/forward
propagation odds for any organized convective complex that forms
around the ridge's periphery. The region with the highest heavy
rain potential appears to be from the southern Plains/Midwest
southeastward near a possible Mesoscale Convective System. There is
significant model spread on location, keeping the risk level as
Marginal at this time. However, higher end potential exists for any
convection that can train along the instability gradient from
roughly eastern KS through AR, as seen in different ways on the
global solutions and experimental RRFS which show local maxima in
the 4-7" range. Should the guidance converge, an increased threat
level could be prudent.

Snell/Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9CIZbxxcfBNViRVrBDcg-SQIHlKLfh53ZuXjkpgG3Bgj= HDLuLls8hHf0vFKoV_T7G7H4hq1vSicT8RL0UlEO9w10gmc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9CIZbxxcfBNViRVrBDcg-SQIHlKLfh53ZuXjkpgG3Bgj= HDLuLls8hHf0vFKoV_T7G7H4hq1vSicT8RL0UlEOgMznHWE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9CIZbxxcfBNViRVrBDcg-SQIHlKLfh53ZuXjkpgG3Bgj= HDLuLls8hHf0vFKoV_T7G7H4hq1vSicT8RL0UlEOzlC5yLY$=20

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