• Re: 3 Day Space Weather Forecast

    From Rug Rat@1:135/250 to Sean Dennis on Friday, June 13, 2025 00:28:39
    Keeping my fingers crossed the band will be in better shape for ARRL Field Day!

    Rug Rat (Brent Hendricks)
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  • From Sean Dennis@1:18/200 to All on Saturday, June 14, 2025 00:19:01
    :Product: 3-Day Forecast
    :Issued: 2025 Jun 14 0030 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

    The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
    G2).
    The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 14-Jun 16 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
    G2).

    NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 14-Jun 16 2025

    Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
    00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1)
    03-06UT 5.33 (G1) 4.33 4.00
    06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 3.33
    09-12UT 4.33 3.33 3.00
    12-15UT 3.33 2.67 3.00
    15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.33
    18-21UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 2.33
    21-00UT 6.00 (G2) 4.00 3.00

    Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are
    expected on 14 Jun due to CME and CH HSS influences. Periods of G1
    (Minor) storming are likely on 15-16 Jun due to CH HSS influences.

    B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

    Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
    below S-scale storm level thresholds.

    Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2025

    Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
    S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

    Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
    No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
    production is forecast.

    C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

    Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
    hours. The largest was at Jun 13 2025 2110 UTC.

    Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2025

    Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
    R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
    R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

    Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
    over 14-16 Jun.



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